US President Donald Trump has, in principle, reiterated not to grant a pardon to disgraced former CEO of FTX exchange Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF).
The market has largely remained in a higher timeframe downtrend despite lower timeframe moves over the past couple of weeks being confined to a narrow range between $65,000–$70,000 before a breakdown. This is the same pattern that has been repeated since October, when we registered the Bitcoin All-Time High (ATH) before the sharp sell off that began on 10/10, with the largest liquidation event in crypto market history.. Source: Bitfinex / TradingView. Bitcoin/US Dollar, 4h. October 2025 – February 2026 Bitcoin has fallen as far as 52.3 percent, and has still not confirmed a bottom, despite a 20 percent bounce off the lows since 5 February. Currently, price is still below the $65,000 local range low this week and is retesting lower lows. Given heightened uncertainty in the market following the Supreme Court ruling on the elevated tariff regime introduced by President Trump, precious metals, gold and silver have regained traction, while in crypto markets, traders are paying a premium for downside protection — a trend that had actually reversed just last week for the first time in several months. Source: OANDA / TradingView. Gold Spot/USD (XAUUSD) vs Silver vs BTC, 4h, 2025–2026 Key Anchors For Price In prior cycles, two valuation anchors have framed extended periods of compression and absorption. In the absence of an immediate macro catalyst, the $78,000 True Market Mean and the $53,000 Realised Price are likely to define the primary resistance and support levels for mid-term market structure. Source: Glassnode. Risk Indicator: Realised Price / True Market Mean / Active Investor Mean / STH Realised Price, 2021–2026 ▌ In prior cycles, the Realised Price has served as the level at which long-term capital meaningfully re-engages. The True Market Mean, now acting as overhead resistance, must be reclaimed on a sustained weekly basis before the structural picture changes. ETF Flows: A Leading Indicator Of Trend ETF outflows have significantly impacted price and added to selling pressure that might come from miners and/or long-term holders realising profits. A net $2.6 billion outflow has been recorded across all US-based bitcoin ETF providers year-to-date. Source: Coinglass. BTC Spot ETF Daily Net Flows by Provider (millions USD), 06 February – 24 February, 2026 ETF Flow Regimes Are A Leading Indicator Of Trend In the current cycle, the ETF flow regime — defined by multi-day streaks rather than isolated daily prints — has proven to be one of the most reliable forward indicators of trend direction. Sustained inflow or outflow sequences have consistently preceded meaningful price expansions or contractions, often leading derivatives-based metrics such as funding or open interest (OI). Recent verified prints highlight the regime sensitivity: → 23 February: $203.8 million net outflow → 24 February: +$257.7 million net inflow Whilst the sharp inflow on 24 February provides a constructive counter-signal, a single positive session does not constitute a regime shift. What has mattered throughout this cycle is the five-to-seven trading day rolling flow trend. Sustained inflow streaks have historically aligned with structural rallies, whilst clustered outflows have coincided with downside continuation and liquidity withdrawal. What Traders Should Monitor → ETF fatigue: Persistent outflows suggest institutional participants are reducing exposure rather than accumulating dips → Institutional de-risking: Broad-based redemptions across issuers indicate asset-class level caution rather than fund rotation → Spot-driven pressure: In the absence of ETF absorption, marginal spot demand must step in to stabilise price Exchange Whale Ratio: Who Is Driving Deposits? The Exchange Whale Ratio is a critical metric identifying which entities are sending coins to exchanges. When large holders dominate exchange deposits, distribution tends to be more routine, persistent, and structurally bearish — unlike liquidation-driven spikes, which are often short-lived and mechanical. When exchange inflows are concentrated among large entities, selling pressure becomes strategic. Examples include sellers appearing at key structural levels, or during the same period each day, as has been observed recently. These are not forced liquidations or retail events; rather, they reflect intentional positioning decisions from capital-rich participants. Source: CryptoQuant. Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio, All Exchanges. February 2025 – February 2026 → 64 percent of exchange inflows are coming from the largest cohort of holders → This is the highest reading on this metric since October 2015 → Total exchange inflows peaked at approximately 60,000 BTC on 06 February, a trend that has subsided but not completely reversed. Options Market: Caution, Not Optimism Options market participants had removed downside protection for the first time since early December last week, which was evident in the skew and open interest (OI) data. However, following the escalation of tariff news, we have seen a slight shift in positioning. Traders are scaling back extreme tail hedges, but they are not repositioning for upside as they had done earlier. Positioning is currently balanced, but the current summary of short-term expiry trading data suggests caution rather than optimism. Source: Glassnode. BTC 25 Delta Skew Normalised (All) via Deribit, 05 February – 18 February, 2026 The 25-delta skew, which measures the volatility differential between downside puts and upside calls, has compressed meaningfully. A positive reading indicates that puts are priced richer than calls, signalling stronger demand for downside protection. Following the retest of the $62,000 region, skew held near 20 percent. It has since eased to roughly 11 percent across tenors, marking a sharp nine-point moderation over recent sessions. At the lows, puts traded at a significant premium as traders moved to secure downside protection. That urgency has subsided. However, skew remains elevated relative to pre-selloff levels, indicating that downside hedging is still favoured over upside exposure. The post Distribution And ETF Fatigue Cloud Bitcoin’s Path To Recovery appeared first on Bitfinex blog .
Bitcoin’s next major move may hinge less on spot charts and more on options market positioning. Coinbase Institutional’s latest research introduces Gamma Exposure, or GEX, as a liquidity lens for identifying volatility regimes. The report maps how dealer hedging flows cluster around key strike zones. Significantly, it highlights concentrated negative gamma between $60,000 and $70,000 and positive gamma near $85,000 to $90,000. Key Levels Meet Options Positioning The firm first revisits its structural pivot map, which aggregates volume and prior turning points into price bands. Dense support appears near $60,000, while the first heavy resistance zone sits around $82,000. Besides, higher liquidity pockets align above $85,000. These zones often attract resting orders and repeated reactions. However, the addition of gamma exposure changes the tactical outlook. Negative gamma dominates the $60,000 to $70,000 corridor. In that environment, dealer hedging can amplify directional moves. Falling prices force more selling, and rising prices trigger additional buying. Hence, if Bitcoin slides toward $60,000, volatility may expand rather than stabilize. In contrast, meaningful positive gamma sits between $85,000 and $90,000. Dealers in positive gamma tend to sell strength and buy weakness. Consequently, price action in that region may compress and pin near strike clusters. That dynamic favors slower advances rather than sharp breakouts. Trading Scenarios Around $82K and $60K The $82,000 level acts as a near-term decision point. If Bitcoin approaches $82,000 and fails to hold above it, supply likely remains intact. Moreover, the gamma profile offers little stabilization there. Traders may favor defined-risk bearish structures instead of aggressive breakout entries. However, acceptance above $82,000 shifts probabilities. Sustained support above that level suggests absorbed supply. Additionally, continuation toward $85,000 becomes more likely. Still, positive gamma overhead increases chop risk, which may limit runaway upside. On the downside, the $60,000 region remains critical. Negative gamma implies that any drop into that zone could accelerate quickly. Consequently, traders may wait for a reclaim before adding long exposure. If Bitcoin loses $60,000 and fails to recover, selling pressure could extend faster than expected. Overall, the interplay between structural pivots and gamma exposure frames two regimes. Downside near $60,000 risks acceleration. Upside toward $90,000 may grind and stall rather than explode.
USDT dips, but fundamentals hold: Why "liquidity" is key for H2 rally.
As the Trump administration pushes lawmakers and regulators to develop clear regulatory frameworks, a former Chainlink executive has joined the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Crypto Task Force as its new legal chief. SEC Appoints New Crypto Task Force Legal Advisor On Monday, Chainlink’s social media announced Taylor Lindman’s departure from the company to join the SEC’s Crypto Task Force as its Chief Counsel. The executive worked at Chainlink Labs for 5 years, where he held several senior legal positions, including Deputy General Counsel. In an X post, the company thanked Lindman for his service, affirming that it looks forward to “modernizing the U.S. financial system together, taking it to the next level of its development and rapid growth.” The former Chainlink executive will replace Michael Selig, who was appointed Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in December 2025. He will serve as the Crypto Task Force’s new senior legal advisor, ensuring compliance, risk management, and guiding legal interpretation. Following the departure of Gary Gensler, the SEC’s former acting chairman, Mark Uyeda, established the Crypto Task Force to review the agency’s approach to digital assets and to develop a clear, comprehensive regulatory framework. Since its launch, the task force has held multiple roundtable events to engage with industry leaders and discuss different aspects of the sector’s regulation, including tokenization, DeFi, financial surveillance, and privacy. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, who also leads the task force, confirmed the news, welcoming Lindman in an X post. “Welcome to our new Crypto Task Force Chief Counsel, Taylor Lindman, who joined the SEC today. I predict great things!” the post reads. SEC To Advance Digital Asset Regulation Last week, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins shared how the agency plans advance digital assets regulation this year. Speaking at ETH Denver alongside Commissioner Peirce, Atkins affirmed that the Commission would move forward with its regulatory work through Project Crypto, which was recently relaunched as a joint initiative with the CFTC. He noted that the two Commissions are “planning great things together – harmonization, joint rulemaking – a common, coordinated approach unlike anything seen before at these two, often sparring agencies.” As reported by Bitcoinist, the sister agencies partnered to advance a clear crypto asset taxonomy, clarify jurisdictional lines, remove duplicative compliance requirements, and reduce regulatory fragmentation. In addition, he announced that in the coming months, the agency will review multiple initiatives, including a Commission framework “to explain how we think about crypto assets that are subject to an investment contract.” In addition, they will consider an innovation exemption for firms to facilitate limited trading of certain tokenized securities on novel platforms; no-action letters and exemptive orders to provide additional clarity; rulemaking on custody of non-security digital assets, such as payment stablecoins, by broker-dealers; and a transfer agent modernization rulemaking, which will “accommodate the role that blockchain can play in recordkeeping.” Earlier this month, Atkins also outlined the SEC’s plan to develop formal guidance on token classification. At a House Financial Services Committee hearing, the chairman noted that regulatory clarity for crypto assets is “long overdue,” emphasizing that a comprehensive federal framework, such as the market structure bill, would be needed to offer long-lasting rulemaking that can’t be easily changed. “Under Commissioner Hester Peirce’s leadership of our Crypto Task Force, SEC staff has provided more clarity in the past year than in the prior decade, but there is no action we can take that future-proofs our rulebook more formidably than nonpartisan market structure legislation,” he stated.
Negotiations between Iran and the US intensify, fueling global market volatility. NVIDIA’s earnings and Iran talks are critical forces impacting crypto and equity markets. Continue Reading: US-Iran Diplomatic Tensions Drive Volatility Across Markets The post US-Iran Diplomatic Tensions Drive Volatility Across Markets appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .
BitcoinWorld AUD/USD Soars: Robust Inflation Data Ignites RBA Rate Hike Speculation Sydney, Australia – March 2025: The Australian dollar surged against the US dollar today, marking its strongest daily gain in three months following unexpectedly robust inflation data. This development immediately fueled intense speculation about potential Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate hikes, fundamentally reshaping market expectations for monetary policy through 2025. AUD/USD Momentum Builds on Inflation Surprise Australian Bureau of Statistics data revealed consumer prices increased 1.2% in the March quarter, significantly exceeding the 0.8% consensus forecast. Consequently, annual inflation accelerated to 4.5% from 4.2% previously. Markets responded immediately, with the AUD/USD pair jumping 1.4% to 0.6820, its highest level since mid-February. This movement represents a dramatic reversal from the currency’s recent downward trend, which had persisted for six consecutive weeks. Market analysts quickly adjusted their rate expectations following the data release. Specifically, swap markets now price a 65% probability of an RBA rate hike in June, up sharply from just 25% yesterday. Furthermore, traders now anticipate at least two additional 25-basis-point increases by year-end. This represents the most aggressive tightening expectations since the RBA paused its hiking cycle in late 2023. RBA Policy Implications and Global Context The inflation data presents a significant challenge for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy committee. Previously, Governor Michele Bullock emphasized the central bank’s data-dependent approach, stating the board would “not rule anything in or out” regarding future rate moves. Today’s figures clearly increase pressure for policy normalization, particularly as services inflation remains stubbornly elevated at 5.8% annually. Comparative Central Bank Analysis Globally, central banks face diverging inflation trajectories. The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance despite recent US inflation moderation, while the European Central Bank continues its gradual tightening path. Australia’s situation appears unique among developed economies, with domestic demand pressures persisting alongside strong employment figures. The nation’s unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, near historic lows, supporting wage growth and consumption. Several key factors contribute to Australia’s persistent inflation: Services sector strength: Education, healthcare, and hospitality prices continue rising Housing costs: Rental inflation reached 7.8% annually, the highest since 2009 Energy transition impacts: Renewable infrastructure investments create price pressures Geographic factors: Supply chain restructuring affects import costs differently than other regions Australian Inflation Components (Quarterly Change) Category Q1 2025 Q4 2024 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages +1.1% +0.9% Housing +2.3% +2.1% Transport +0.8% +0.5% Education +4.2% +3.8% Insurance & Financial Services +2.7% +2.4% Currency Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis Forex traders reacted swiftly to the inflation surprise, with AUD/USD volume tripling its 30-day average during the Asian session. The pair broke through multiple technical resistance levels, including the 200-day moving average at 0.6780. Additionally, risk reversals show increased demand for AUD call options, indicating growing bullish sentiment. Several factors amplify the Australian dollar’s reaction: Carry trade appeal: Higher expected rates improve AUD’s attractiveness Commodity correlation: Iron ore and copper prices support the currency Regional outperformance: Australia’s economy grows faster than most G10 peers Positioning shifts: Hedge funds reduced AUD shorts before the data release Market participants now watch several key levels. Immediate resistance sits at 0.6850, the February high, while support emerges at 0.6750. A sustained break above 0.6850 could trigger further gains toward 0.6950. However, the US dollar’s broader strength presents a countervailing force, particularly if Federal Reserve policy remains restrictive. Economic Impacts and Sector Analysis The inflation data and resulting currency movement create varied effects across Australia’s economy. Export-oriented sectors benefit from the stronger dollar, particularly mining and agriculture. Conversely, import-competing industries face increased pressure from cheaper foreign goods. Tourism experiences mixed effects, with inbound travel becoming more affordable but outbound travel more expensive for Australians. Housing Market Considerations Australia’s property market faces particular challenges from potential rate hikes. Mortgage holders with variable rates would experience immediate payment increases, potentially cooling housing demand. However, rental inflation suggests underlying supply constraints persist. Construction costs continue rising at 6.2% annually, limiting new housing supply despite government incentives. Business investment decisions also adjust to the new outlook. Companies may delay expansion plans if borrowing costs rise significantly. Nevertheless, strong domestic demand supports revenue projections for consumer-facing businesses. The retail sector shows resilience, with sales growing 2.4% in the latest quarter despite higher prices. Historical Context and Policy Evolution Today’s developments continue Australia’s post-pandemic inflation narrative. The country experienced later inflation emergence than peers but now shows greater persistence. The RBA’s policy approach has evolved through this period, initially emphasizing patience before adopting more proactive rhetoric in recent months. Several historical parallels emerge with previous tightening cycles: 2007-2008: RBA raised rates amid mining boom inflation 2009-2010: Post-GFC recovery prompted rapid normalization 2022-2023: Pandemic-related supply shocks drove aggressive hikes Each cycle featured unique characteristics, but all responded to domestic inflation exceeding targets. The current situation combines elements of previous episodes, with both demand and supply factors contributing to price pressures. Australia’s economic structure has changed significantly since earlier cycles, with services representing a larger share of output and employment. Conclusion The AUD/USD rally reflects fundamental reassessment of Australia’s economic trajectory and monetary policy outlook. Robust inflation data has clearly increased expectations for RBA tightening, supporting the Australian dollar against major counterparts. Market participants now await the central bank’s May meeting for clearer guidance, with particular attention to updated economic projections. The currency pair’s direction will depend on both domestic policy decisions and global risk sentiment, creating complex dynamics for traders and policymakers alike. Ultimately, today’s movements demonstrate how single data releases can rapidly reshape market expectations and currency valuations in interconnected global markets. FAQs Q1: What caused the AUD/USD to rise today? The Australian dollar surged following stronger-than-expected inflation data, which increased expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates sooner than previously anticipated. Q2: How does higher inflation affect currency values? Higher inflation typically leads central banks to raise interest rates, which makes that currency more attractive to investors seeking higher returns, thereby increasing demand and value. Q3: What is the current market expectation for RBA rate moves? Markets now price approximately a 65% probability of a rate hike in June, with expectations for at least two additional increases by the end of 2025. Q4: How does AUD/USD movement impact Australian consumers? A stronger Australian dollar makes imported goods cheaper but reduces the competitiveness of Australian exports. It also affects overseas travel costs and foreign investment returns. Q5: What other factors influence AUD/USD besides interest rates? Commodity prices (especially iron ore and copper), global risk sentiment, economic growth differentials, and relative central bank policies all significantly impact the currency pair. This post AUD/USD Soars: Robust Inflation Data Ignites RBA Rate Hike Speculation first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
Stripe, which has been steadily expanding its crypto initiatives, is reportedly exploring the acquisition of all or part of PayPal, according to a Tuesday report from Bloomberg. If finalized, the deal would bring together two of the most active traditional payments players in crypto and stablecoin infrastructure under a single umbrella. Stripe Weighing PayPal Acquisition
Huge headlines from Stripe and Meta have stablecoins squarely back in the forefront of the crypto discussion.
Regulated US crypto bank Anchorage Digital has officially confirmed it holds Strategy’s STRC perpetual preferred stock on its balance sheet. Conviction compounds. Institutions don’t just talk about Bitcoin, they structure around it. Today, @Anchorage Digital has announced it holds $STRC , @Strategy ’s perpetual preferred stock, on our balance sheet. When the company that operationalizes Bitcoin infrastructure puts… — Nathan McCauley (@nathanmccauley) February 25, 2026 CEO Nathan McCauley disclosed the position on X today, framing it as a major strategic alignment between the sector’s largest digital asset treasury and its critical banking infrastructure. This move validates the use of high yield Bitcoin proxies even as ETF outflows and price retests shake out weaker hands. McCauley highlighted the synergy on X, noting that Anchorage plans to “build the future of BTC” alongside the Bitcoin treasury giant, Strategy. While the exact size of the position remains undisclosed, the purchase signals that institutional custodians are now comfortable utilizing complex derivatives to gain exposure to crypto. Key Takeaways Disclosure Filed: Anchorage Digital confirmed it holds Strategy’s Nasdaq-listed STRC stock. Position Scope: The move targets STRC’s 11.25% annual dividend yield, providing income-focused Bitcoin exposure. Strategic Signal: The partnership bridges operational custody with corporate treasury accumulation. What the Anchorage Digital Disclosure Actually Signals STRC is not a standard equity play. It is a Nasdaq listed perpetual preferred security designed as a high yield instrument that pays an 11.25% annual dividend in cash. By holding STRC, Anchorage captures significant yield while funding Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin purchasing engine . “When the company that operationalizes Bitcoin infrastructure puts capital alongside the company that operationalized the Bitcoin treasury strategy … that’s a signal,” McCauley tweeted. Conviction is contagious @NathanMcCauley . $STRC https://t.co/0Eo7UKK8CK — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 25, 2026 This structure allows institutions to bypass direct spot volatility while maintaining exposure to the ecosystem. Proceeds from STRC issuances historically fund Strategy’s direct Bitcoin buys, creating a flywheel effect. As of Monday, Strategy held 717,722 BTC , valued at approximately $47 billion. Discover: The best meme coins on Solana A Divergence in Corporate Bitcoin Strategies This disclosure highlights a sharp split in corporate behavior regarding crypto assets. While some operational entities liquidate positions to cover costs, ( a major Bitcoin mining company just sold all its BTC ), Anchorage and Strategy are doubling down on Bitcoin’s longer term prospects. Michael Saylor, Strategy’s executive chairman, also responded to Anchorage Digital’s news by noting that “conviction is contagious.” That sentiment appears to be spreading beyond just crypto-native banks. Strategy recently revealed that Prevalon Energy, a subsidiary of Mitsubishi Power Americas, also holds STRC on its balance sheet. This corporate adoption mirrors a growing public sector trend, as lawmakers in states like Missouri advance Bitcoin reserve bills to secure state funds against inflation. Bitcoin for Corporations is $STRC . @Anchorage Digital & Prevalon Energy announce LIVE at Bitcoin for Corporations they own $STRC on their balance sheets. "I see a 9 figure position in $STRC for our future" – Ben Hunnewell, CFO of Prevalon Energy. pic.twitter.com/hEgMTUe1lg — Strategy (@Strategy) February 25, 2026 The timing is critical. Anchorage concurrently secured a $100 million investment from Tether, valuing the firm at $4.2 billion. Allocating a portion of that balance sheet to high-yield Bitcoin proxies indicates a shift from improved custody to supporting active treasury management. Furthermore, with overnight market liquidations defending the $60k level , these corporate treasury strategies will face their next major stress test. Until Anchorage discloses the size of the position, the market is treating this as a qualitative vote of confidence rather than a proven liquidity event. Discover: The best crypto to buy today The post Anchorage Digital Discloses Holding in Strategy’s STRC, Signals Long Term Conviction appeared first on Cryptonews .