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Summary Circle Internet Group, Inc. earns a Buy rating after a strong Q4 beat and encouraging 2026 guidance, despite high volatility and recent underperformance. CRCL delivered Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.43 (vs. $0.16 consensus) and 77% YoY revenue growth, with USDC circulation up 72% and robust margin expansion. Management reiterated a medium-term 40% USDC CAGR, 38–40% RLDC margins, and $570–585M in 2026 adjusted operating expenses, supporting a bullish outlook. Technicals show CRCL breaking above its 50-day moving average, with high short interest and momentum suggesting potential for further upside. Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) shares ran laps around the bears after the embattled 2025 IPO stock soared following Q4 results. Now down 36% from six months ago, it has matched the dismal performance of the bitcoin ETF (IBIT), while sharply lagging both the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) and the now-notorious software ETF (IGV). With Q4 numbers and 2026 guidance in hand, I have a Buy rating on the stock. The growth trajectory is uncertain, but the valuation is somewhat encouraging today—even after the 30% post-earnings jump. Technically, CRCL is above its 50-day moving average for the first time since October, with the best momentum since last summer. Of course, with very high volatility, a low position size is prudent. I'll outline my valuation and a look at the technicals. Circle Trading with Bitcoin Since Last Summer StockCharts.com In February, Circle reported a solid set of quarterly results. Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.43 beat the Wall Street consensus target of $0.16, while revenue of $770 million, an impressive 77% from the same period a year earlier, was a material $25 million beat. Its USDC in circulation rose 72% YoY to $75.3 billion , while on-chain transaction volume summed to $11.9 trillion over the October-December period (+247% YoY). Shares rocketed 32% by the following afternoon, a sharp bullish reversal from the 12.2% post-reporting plunge in November. Implied volatility remains intense, near 75%, according to data from Option Research & Technology Services. The $19 billion market cap Information Technology sector company with ties to the banking sector has a high 10.5% short interest, likely contributing to the post-earnings surge. There were also macro implications, as the broader fintech space finally caught a notable bid after Circle’s numbers were absorbed. Looking closer at the quarter that was, Circle delivered a clean beat in Q4, posting adjusted EPS of $0.52 (above the GAAP aforementioned number), while its adjusted EBITDA ex‑stock comp of $167 million was above street estimates. Really, it was the big top-line figure and margins that got the street stirring. Specifically, net other revenue, higher net reserve income, and a roughly 3‑point better net reserve margin supported a 54% adjusted EBITDA margin. Circle executives noted “meaningful” wallets increasing by 59% to 6.8 million, boosted by integrations across 30 blockchains and a growing Circle Payments Network footprint. Along with strong domestic volume and user growth, there are international upside catalysts. Namely, Circle is expanding beyond USDC with growth in its euro stablecoin, EURC, and tokenized money market fund, US Yield Coin. Moreover, the firm detailed that it's building out its Arc blockchain and developer tools, AI‑driven “agentic” payments capabilities, and new products like StableFX and xReserve. Circle: Color on Quarter Circle Also key to the bullish market response was 2026 guidance. The management team reiterated a medium‑term 40% USDC circulation CAGR, possibly assuaging investors’ concerns, along with expectations of other revenue of $150–170 million and RLDC (Revenue Less Distribution Costs) margins of 38–40%. The company set 2026 adjusted operating expense guidance of $570–585 million, shown below. Circle: 2026 Outlook Circle On the earnings outlook, there’s admittedly high uncertainty on the EPS growth trajectory . Still, even before this week’s encouraging Q4 report and 2026 forecast, operating EPS is seen rising from $1.20 this year to $2.25 in FY 2027. By FY 2028, the firm could achieve more than $3 in per-share earnings. Revenue is expected to tick up by about $1 billion year-by-year. Thus, much will depend on operating leverage. As it stands, there were 7 sell-side EPS downgrades in the three months leading into the Q4 print, with just 2 upgrades. What may surprise investors is that Circle is free cash flow positive, with $2.89 in FCF per share over the past 12 months, according to Seeking Alpha. Circle: Revenue & Earnings Forecasts, EPS Revision Trends Seeking Alpha On valuation , if we assume $3 of FY 2028 EPS and apply a 30x P/E, then shares should trade near $90. Keep in mind that the growth rate is still very high, likely above 30% through 2028, so a 30x P/E is not aggressive. Rather, it incorporates a significant margin of safety, given the high volatility and uncertainty in the crypto market. Circle Trades About 4-5x Forward Sales Seeking Alpha Key risks for CRCL include unfavorable regulations in the crypto space, perhaps prompted by U.S. Congressional changes come January 2026 and after the next general election. Of course, high volatility and more downside price action in crypto itself (bitcoin, ether, and the like) are possible perils. It’s clear that CRLC has moved in tandem with broader token prices, so more bitcoin (BTC-USD) weakness would be a tough headwind to overcome. A macro concern for Circle is the risk of rising interest rates, given its modest debt. Seeking Alpha Looking ahead, corporate event data provided by Wall Street Horizon show a projected Q1 2026 earnings date of Wednesday, May 13 BMO. No other volatility catalysts are seen on the calendar. Corporate Event Risk Calendar Wall Street Horizon The Technical Take With shares about 10-15% below what I consider to be a fair stock price, the technical situation may be on the verge of a breakout. Notice in the chart below that the stock is poised to close above its falling 50-day moving average for the first time since October. It’s also on the verge of breaking the major downtrend line dating back to the all-time high from June. The stock never sniffed testing the IPO price, which some investors were expecting. Couple that with the high short interest, and I would not be surprised to see further upside on a covering rally. Also take a look at the RSI momentum oscillator at the top of the graph. It’s now at the best mark since July, helping to confirm the price ascent. Resistance remains just above the $91 mark, while downside price action could come about now that there’s a big gap down to the low $60s from before the earnings reaction. A breakout through $91 could lead to the next stop at $108. Watch for support in the $71-$73 range (the earnings day low and where the 50dma comes into play). CRCL: Breakout Through the 50 DMA on Strong RSI Momentum, $91 Target StockCharts.com The Bottom Line I have a Buy rating on CRCL. I see fair value about $10 higher than today’s price, while the chart and short interest augur for more significant upside on this highly volatile crypto-anchored tech stock.