Wallet activity suggests Polymarket may have an insider trading problem

  vor 6 Monaten

Polymarket saw multiple examples of insider trading in the past weeks. Now, a pattern has emerged to potentially point at KPMG insiders betting on company earnings. Several wallets on Polymarket are making surprisingly accurate bets on company earnings. One common thread is that all the companies use KPMG as their auditor, raising concerns of yet more insiders swaying the markets and extracting value. So far, there is no clear identification of any KPMG insiders, but the patterns hold true for a series of wallets targeting specific prediction pairs. Previous cases of insider markets have included an Israeli reservist , as well as the more recent case of betting that the Axiom market was part of an investigation by ZachXBT. Other suspected sources of insiders include OpenAI employees and even one of the prominent Polymarket affiliates. Insider information on viral markets can lead to significant gains, and the activity is entirely unlimited, as Polymarket remains permissionless and anonymous. Researchers noticed that Polymarket models were often much more accurate than chance or even an expert prediction. Users also noticed that some of the top traders focused on specific company earnings markets, where all of the entities were audited by KPMG. The traders acted with confidence, even with markets that flipped in the last moments before resolving. Are earnings reports leaking on Polymarket? Analysts noted a cluster of wallets, which focused on the company earnings section of Polymarket. The section contains 155 prediction pairs with two options on exceeding or failing to cover the expectations on earnings for the respective past periods. The section contains markets with only a few hundred dollars in volumes, as well as more active pairs with nearly $200K in activity. A cluster of users is showing a pattern of making high-conviction bets just before the earnings are disclosed to the public. Not all of the wallets are tracked or chosen for copy-trading, as they select niche markets. The users only bet on KPMG-audited companies and switched wallets often to avoid drawing attention. Polymarket has the ability to create pairs where the outcome could be known in advance. This creates an opening for insiders to make confident bets while avoiding more uncertain markets, such as crypto price predictions. Polymarket has previously stated it would not discourage ‘sharps’ from making more informed bets, but the insider knowledge remains worrying for the market’s fairness. Prediction markets suffer post-Super Bowl slump Prediction markets logged peak activity in January, but February may arrive with a slowdown. The end of Super Bowl predictions opens both Kalshi and Polymarket to a slower period, where other types of markets may gain importance. Polymarket is still the leader in terms of active on-chain users with regular small predictions. The platform also hosts a wider number of uncategorized markets, allowing for potential insider trading based on niche knowledge. In February, prediction markets had a total volume of around $21B, down from over $26B in January. Polymarket reached $7.34B in volumes, slightly down from $7.6B in January. Get seen where it counts. Advertise in Cryptopolitan Research and reach crypto’s sharpest investors and builders.

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NZD/USD Soars as US Dollar Weakens, Bolstered by RBNZ’s Optimistic Growth Outlook

  vor 6 Monaten

BitcoinWorld NZD/USD Soars as US Dollar Weakens, Bolstered by RBNZ’s Optimistic Growth Outlook WELLINGTON, March 2025 – The NZD/USD currency pair recorded significant gains during Thursday’s trading session, climbing 0.8% to reach 0.6350 as the US Dollar softened across multiple currency baskets. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s latest growth projections provided substantial support for the Kiwi dollar, creating a compelling narrative for forex traders globally. This movement represents the pair’s strongest weekly performance since January, reflecting shifting macroeconomic dynamics between the two economies. NZD/USD Technical Analysis and Market Movements Forex markets witnessed substantial NZD/USD advances throughout the Asian and European sessions. The currency pair broke through several key resistance levels, notably surpassing the 0.6320 mark that had contained upward movement for the previous fortnight. Trading volume exceeded 30-day averages by approximately 18%, indicating strong institutional participation in the move. Consequently, technical indicators now suggest potential further appreciation toward the 0.6400 psychological level. Market analysts observed coordinated selling pressure on the US Dollar index (DXY), which declined 0.6% to 103.85. This broad-based USD weakness emerged despite relatively stable Treasury yields. The New Zealand dollar demonstrated particular strength against other major currencies as well, gaining ground against the Euro and British Pound. These simultaneous movements suggest fundamental rather than technical drivers behind the NZD’s performance. RBNZ Growth Outlook Provides Fundamental Support The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s latest Monetary Policy Statement, released Wednesday, projected stronger-than-expected economic expansion through 2025. Governor Adrian Orr highlighted resilient domestic demand and improving export conditions during the accompanying press conference. Specifically, the central bank revised its GDP growth forecast upward to 2.4% for the calendar year, compared to the previous 2.1% estimate. This optimistic assessment reduced market expectations for near-term interest rate cuts. Furthermore, the RBNZ maintained its Official Cash Rate at 5.50%, marking the seventh consecutive meeting without policy changes. The accompanying statement noted that “current monetary settings continue to constrain spending and inflation pressure.” Inflation projections showed gradual decline toward the 1-3% target band, with headline CPI expected to reach 2.8% by year-end. These developments supported interest rate differentials favoring the New Zealand dollar relative to other developed market currencies. Comparative Central Bank Policy Analysis Monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and RBNZ contributed significantly to the NZD/USD movement. While the RBNZ maintained its hawkish stance, recent Federal Reserve communications suggested potential rate cuts in the second half of 2025. This policy outlook contrast created favorable conditions for NZD appreciation against the USD. Historical data indicates that interest rate differentials between the two currencies correlate strongly with NZD/USD performance over medium-term horizons. Central Bank Policy Comparison (March 2025) Indicator Reserve Bank of New Zealand Federal Reserve Policy Rate 5.50% 4.75-5.00% Last Change May 2023 (+25bps) July 2024 (-25bps) Next Meeting April 10, 2025 March 19, 2025 2025 GDP Forecast 2.4% 1.8% Inflation Target 1-3% 2% US Dollar Weakness Across Currency Markets The US Dollar’s broad decline represented a key driver behind NZD/USD advances. Several factors contributed to this USD softening: Reduced safe-haven demand: Improved geopolitical tensions decreased demand for USD assets Positioning adjustments: Hedge funds reduced long USD positions ahead of key economic data Yield differential compression: Narrowing interest rate gaps with other developed markets Technical factors: Break below key support levels triggered algorithmic selling Notably, the Dollar Index (DXY) approached its 100-day moving average, a critical technical level that often determines medium-term trend direction. Currency strategists at major banks noted that USD weakness appeared most pronounced against commodity-linked currencies, including the New Zealand dollar. This pattern typically indicates improving global growth expectations and risk appetite among institutional investors. Commodity Price Influence on NZD Performance New Zealand’s export-driven economy benefits from stronger global commodity prices, which frequently correlate with NZD strength. Dairy prices, representing approximately 25% of New Zealand’s exports, increased 3.2% in the latest Global Dairy Trade auction. Additionally, improved demand from China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, supported export revenue projections. These fundamental factors provided underlying support for the New Zealand dollar beyond immediate currency market dynamics. Market Implications and Trading Considerations The NZD/USD advance carries significant implications for various market participants. Exporters face improved competitiveness in US markets, while importers confront higher costs for USD-denominated goods. For forex traders, the breakout above key technical levels suggests potential trend continuation, though overbought conditions warrant monitoring. Options market data indicates increased demand for NZD call options, reflecting bullish sentiment among sophisticated market participants. Risk management considerations include monitoring upcoming economic releases from both economies. Key data points include US non-farm payrolls (March 7) and New Zealand’s quarterly employment report (March 5). Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony (March 6) may provide further clarity on US monetary policy direction. These events could either reinforce or challenge the current NZD/USD trend. Conclusion The NZD/USD currency pair demonstrated significant strength as the US Dollar softened across global markets. This movement received fundamental support from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s optimistic growth outlook and relatively hawkish policy stance. Technical factors, including breakouts above key resistance levels, suggest potential for further appreciation toward the 0.6400 level. Market participants should monitor upcoming economic data and central bank communications, as these will likely determine whether the current NZD/USD advance represents a sustainable trend or temporary movement. The interplay between monetary policy divergence and global risk sentiment will continue driving this important currency pair through 2025. FAQs Q1: What caused the NZD/USD to advance in March 2025? The NZD/USD advance resulted from combined US Dollar weakness across currency markets and fundamental support from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s optimistic growth outlook. Technical breakouts above key resistance levels amplified the upward movement. Q2: How does the RBNZ growth outlook affect the New Zealand dollar? The RBNZ’s upward revision of GDP growth forecasts to 2.4% for 2025 reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts. This relatively hawkish stance compared to other central banks supports interest rate differentials favoring the NZD, making it more attractive to yield-seeking investors. Q3: Why is the US Dollar softening against multiple currencies? USD weakness stems from reduced safe-haven demand amid improving geopolitical conditions, positioning adjustments ahead of key economic data, narrowing yield differentials with other developed markets, and technical breaks below important support levels. Q4: What technical levels are important for NZD/USD traders to watch? Traders monitor the 0.6320 resistance-turned-support level, the 0.6400 psychological barrier, and the 100-day moving average around 0.6280. Breakouts above or below these levels often determine short-to-medium-term trend direction. Q5: How do commodity prices influence the New Zealand dollar? As an export-driven economy, New Zealand’s currency responds strongly to commodity price movements, particularly dairy products which represent about 25% of exports. Rising commodity prices typically support NZD strength through improved terms of trade and export revenue projections. This post NZD/USD Soars as US Dollar Weakens, Bolstered by RBNZ’s Optimistic Growth Outlook first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

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XRP Volume Spikes 212% on Singapore Exchange — Institutions Stepping In?

  vor 6 Monaten

A significant surge in trading activity has been observed for XRP on the Singapore Exchange. The notable 212% spike suggests that institutional investors might be showing increased interest. What’s driving this uptrend, and could it signal a broader movement in the cryptocurrency market? Delve deeper to discover which coins might be next in line for growth. XRP Struggles Below Key Levels Despite Potential for Bounce Source: tradingview XRP currently trades between $1.34 and $1.48, facing a tough market. In recent months, it has significantly dropped, with a six-month decline of over 50%. However, some indicators suggest a potential bounce. The coin’s immediate aim is to surpass $1.56, its nearest resistance. Achieving this could see further growth, potentially reaching up to $1.70. This would represent an increase from the lower end of its current range by about 27%. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic indicators suggest it’s slightly oversold, providing room for potential gains. If it falls, it might find support at $1.29 or as low as $1.15, offering a foundation for another possible rise. Conclusion XRP's trading volume surged significantly, marking a noticeable increase in institutional interest. This uptrend aligns with broader market trends where major cryptocurrencies are gaining acceptance. Ripple's progress could be seen as a catalyst for this spike. Bitcoin and Ethereum remain key players, but XRP's recent performance indicates potential for growth. The coming months will reveal if this momentum sustains or translates into long-term gains. Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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Bitcoin ETFs Pull $1B in 3 Days as BTC and XRP Funds Rebound

  vor 6 Monaten

Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in more than $1 billion across three consecutive trading sessions, marking the first meaningful reversal after five weeks of steady outflows. The move comes even as Bitcoin remains well below its all-time high. According to data from analytics platform SoSoValue, cumulative inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs between February 17 and 26 reached $1.02 billion. The strongest single session saw $506.5 million enter the funds in one day. ETF analyst Nate Geraci noted that investors appear to be “buying the bottom,” pointing out that roughly $6.5 billion has exited spot ETFs since Bitcoin’s October peak. However, that figure remains modest compared to the $55 billion in cumulative inflows recorded since January 2024. Five-Week Outflow Streak Finally Breaks The recent inflows ended a five-week stretch of negative balances. In the final two weeks of January alone, outflows totaled $2.82 billion. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the rebound with a single-day net inflow of $275.8 million on February 26. While some products such as Fidelity’s FBTC and Ark 21Shares’ ARKB saw minor outflows, gains in other funds offset the weakness. Despite the bounce, total net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have declined from $63 billion at the October peak to about $54 billion today. Assets under management have also fallen sharply, from roughly $170 billion to $84.3 billion. That context makes the three-day surge notable, but not yet decisive. ETH, SOL and XRP ETFs Also See Renewed Interest The positive momentum extended beyond Bitcoin. Spot Ethereum ETFs attracted approximately $173 million during the same three-day period, signaling renewed institutional interest in ETH exposure. Solana-focused investment products saw roughly $35 million in inflows, while XRP-linked ETFs recorded about $7 million. Although smaller in scale compared to Bitcoin, these flows suggest broader risk appetite returning to crypto-linked instruments. Market participants often treat ETF flows as a proxy for institutional sentiment. When inflows resume during price consolidation, it can indicate long-term positioning rather than short-term speculation. Are Institutions Signaling a BTC Bottom? Bitcoin remains below its prior highs, yet ETF investors are stepping back in. Historically, similar patterns have appeared during corrective phases when long-term capital accumulates gradually. Still, three consecutive days of inflows represent the minimum threshold for a potential trend shift, not confirmation of one. Sustained positive flows over several weeks would be required to validate a structural reversal. For now, ETF behavior suggests that institutional capital has not abandoned Bitcoin, ETH, SOL, or XRP. Instead, it may be repositioning during volatility.

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Crypto Privacy Tools: Why Banning Them Would Be a Dangerous Mistake, Warns UK Think Tank

  vor 6 Monaten

BitcoinWorld Crypto Privacy Tools: Why Banning Them Would Be a Dangerous Mistake, Warns UK Think Tank LONDON, UK – In a significant development for global cryptocurrency policy, a leading UK security think tank has delivered a stark warning: banning blockchain privacy technologies would backfire spectacularly, making illicit activities harder to detect rather than preventing them. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), drawing from a comprehensive public-private roundtable, argues that the growing role of crypto privacy tools demands nuanced regulation, not blunt prohibition. This position challenges growing regulatory impulses worldwide and places the UK at a critical policy crossroads regarding financial innovation and security. Crypto Privacy Tools Face Global Regulatory Scrutiny Blockchain-based privacy tools have become central to the evolution of decentralized finance. These technologies, including privacy pools and zero-knowledge proofs (ZK-proofs), enable users to conduct transactions without exposing sensitive financial data on public ledgers. Consequently, regulators globally grapple with balancing innovation against concerns over money laundering and terrorist financing. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), for instance, has consistently highlighted the risks associated with anonymity-enhancing technologies. However, RUSI’s report introduces a crucial counter-narrative, suggesting that prohibition creates more problems than it solves. Zero-knowledge proofs represent a particularly sophisticated area of cryptography. They allow one party to prove to another that a statement is true without revealing any information beyond the validity of the statement itself. In banking, this could verify a customer’s creditworthiness without exposing their transaction history. The technology powers several leading blockchain networks and applications. Privacy pools, meanwhile, are smart contract-based systems that obscure the origin and destination of funds within a pool of many participants, enhancing transactional privacy. The RUSI Report’s Core Argument Against Banning Privacy Tech RUSI’s analysis stems from a collaborative roundtable involving law enforcement, regulatory bodies, private sector firms, and technology developers. The institute’s primary conclusion is that a ban on privacy-enhancing protocols would be counterproductive. Such a move would likely drive development and usage underground, into less transparent jurisdictions and onto harder-to-monitor networks. This fragmentation would severely hinder the lawful information-sharing and investigative cooperation that currently exists between some developers and authorities. Instead, the report advocates for a framework of enhanced cooperation . This model encourages open dialogue between privacy tool developers and agencies like the UK’s National Crime Agency (NCA). The goal is to build compliance mechanisms into the technology’s design—a concept known as ‘privacy by design, security by default.’ For example, developers could integrate selective disclosure features, allowing users to reveal transaction details to authorized entities under specific legal conditions while maintaining default privacy. Historical Context and the Failure of Prohibition Models History offers clear parallels. The attempt to ban strong encryption in the 1990s, often called the ‘Crypto Wars,’ failed to stop its proliferation and arguably weakened Western cybersecurity. Similarly, prohibiting privacy tools would not eliminate demand but would cede control of these technologies to unregulated spaces. RUSI’s experts note that transparent blockchains, like Bitcoin, already provide forensic tools that help trace illicit flows. A complete privacy ban might push criminals toward older, more opaque methods like physical cash or informal value transfer systems, which are far harder to track. The table below contrasts the potential outcomes of a ban versus a cooperative regulatory approach: Policy Approach Likely Outcome for Security Impact on Innovation Effect on Illicit Finance Monitoring Blanket Ban on Privacy Tools Drives technology underground; reduces oversight Stifles UK/EU tech sector; innovation moves offshore Reduces visibility; harder to trace illicit flows Risk-Based Regulation & Cooperation Keeps development in regulated jurisdictions Fosters compliant innovation and job growth Enables lawful access and forensic capabilities Balancing Act: Privacy Protocols and Regulatory Compliance The central challenge lies in achieving a technical and legal balance. Privacy is a fundamental right, recognized in frameworks like the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). Financial transparency, however, is a cornerstone of anti-money laundering (AML) regimes. RUSI suggests this balance is possible. Protocols can be designed with built-in compliance hooks. For instance, a ZK-proof system could allow a user to generate a proof for a regulator showing that a transaction’s source was from a whitelisted, compliant address, without revealing the entire wallet history. Key technical concepts in this debate include: Zero-Knowledge Succinct Non-Interactive Arguments of Knowledge (zk-SNARKs): A form of ZK-proof that allows for efficient verification. Selective Disclosure: The ability to reveal specific transaction attributes to authorized parties under predefined conditions. Auditability Trails: Mechanisms that maintain privacy for users but allow for aggregate, anonymized auditing of protocol health and economic activity. Several projects are already exploring this middle ground. Some decentralized exchanges use privacy technology that obscures individual trades but provides aggregate liquidity data to analysts. Other networks are implementing ‘view keys’ that let users grant temporary read-access to their transaction history for audit or loan application purposes. These innovations demonstrate that privacy and accountability are not mutually exclusive. The Global Impact and UK’s Position in Crypto Governance The UK’s stance on this issue carries significant weight. As a global financial hub with ambitions to become a cryptocurrency hub, its regulatory decisions influence other jurisdictions. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, while comprehensive, takes a cautious approach to privacy coins. The US has pursued enforcement actions against privacy-focused services like Tornado Cash. A UK model based on RUSI’s cooperative recommendations could offer a third way, positioning the country as a leader in secure, innovative, and compliant digital finance. This approach aligns with the UK government’s stated goals of fostering fintech growth while maintaining robust financial crime controls. It also reflects a broader shift in regulatory philosophy—from outright prevention of risk to the managed mitigation of risk through technology and supervision. The success of this model depends on sustained investment in law enforcement’s technical capabilities and the creation of clear, predictable legal standards for developers. Conclusion The RUSI report delivers a timely and evidence-based intervention in the heated debate over crypto privacy tools . Its core finding is unambiguous: banning privacy-enhancing technologies is a self-defeating strategy that would harm security, innovation, and economic competitiveness. The path forward requires pragmatic regulation and structured cooperation between innovators and guardians of the law. For the UK and the world, the choice is not between privacy and security, but between an opaque digital underground and a transparent, innovative, and secure financial future. The responsible integration of crypto privacy tools, guided by reports like RUSI’s, is essential for building that future. FAQs Q1: What are zero-knowledge proofs (ZK-proofs) in cryptocurrency? Zero-knowledge proofs are advanced cryptographic methods that allow one party to prove the truth of information to another party without revealing the underlying data. In crypto, they enable private transactions on public blockchains. Q2: Why does RUSI think banning crypto privacy tools is counterproductive? RUSI argues that a ban would push development and use into unregulated, opaque environments, making it harder for law enforcement to monitor activities and cooperate with developers, ultimately reducing overall security and oversight. Q3: What alternative to a ban does the RUSI report propose? The report advocates for enhanced cooperation between privacy tool developers and law enforcement, encouraging the design of technologies with built-in compliance features, like selective disclosure, that balance user privacy with regulatory needs. Q4: How do privacy tools differ from the anonymity of cash? While both provide privacy, blockchain transactions leave a permanent, auditable trail on a public ledger. Advanced privacy tools obscure the details of this trail, but the underlying structure can still allow for forensic analysis under the right legal and technical frameworks, unlike physical cash. Q5: What is the global regulatory trend regarding cryptocurrency privacy tools? Trends are mixed. Some jurisdictions are imposing strict limits or bans on privacy-focused assets and protocols, while others are exploring regulatory frameworks that allow for their use under specific, controlled conditions that prevent illicit activity. This post Crypto Privacy Tools: Why Banning Them Would Be a Dangerous Mistake, Warns UK Think Tank first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

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DOGE “Zero Removal” Talk Returns — Can February Deliver Another Meme Shock?

  vor 6 Monaten

Excitement builds as speculation surrounding Dogecoin gains momentum once again. Enthusiasts are buzzing about the possibility of another significant price movement in February. The crypto community is eager to see if these predictions will hold true. This article dives into which coins might be poised for a surge. Stay tuned for an in-depth analysis of potential market movers. Dogecoin Shows Signs of Stability but Faces Path to Growth Source: tradingview Dogecoin’s price seems to be stabilizing between just under ten cents and above nine cents. It has recently dropped by over two percent in the past week, and even more significantly in the last month. However, its relative strength index suggests it might be oversold. If buyers jump in, it could rise past the first resistance around mid-ten cents, possibly pushing toward eleven cents, marking up to a ten percent increase. While its longer-term trend shows larger declines, these resistance levels may offer a chance for short-term gains if market sentiment shifts. Conclusion DOGE continues to capture interest, especially with talks of price changes. February could be another significant month. Anticipation grows among enthusiasts and investors hope for a repeat performance. As attention shifts towards this meme coin, DOGE’s next moves remain a key focus. Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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Shiba Inu Price Retreats to $0.000005 Amid Weak Market Sentiment and Falling Open Interest

  vor 6 Monaten

Shiba Inu is trading lower today. The meme coin fell 2.67% in the last 24 hours to $0.00000578 at the time of writing . The decline follows a brief surge to $0.00000653 on Feb. 25, which failed to hold. Open interest in SHIB dropped 5.53% over the same period, according to CoinGlass data , settling at $58.72 million. The pullback reflects a broader retreat across the digital asset market as traders continue to unwind risk positions. The crypto market's weakness mirrors pressure in equity markets. Nvidia's earnings-driven pullback weighed heavily on risk appetite across asset classes. Most major tokens posted losses over the last 24 hours. Analysts note that digital assets are increasingly moving in step with broader risk sentiment rather than reacting to crypto-specific catalysts. This correlation has made it harder for SHIB bulls to sustain momentum independently of macro conditions. An unexpected rally earlier in the week briefly lifted market optimism. Many investors had begun speculating that a bottom was forming after a more than four-month slide. That sentiment faded quickly. The reversal in open interest signals that speculative positioning in SHIB is being reduced. Falling open interest alongside price declines typically indicates that traders are closing positions rather than building new ones. Key Price Levels to Watch Shiba Inu faces well-defined technical barriers. Resistance sits at $0.00000733, with a stronger ceiling at $0.00000968. Both levels will need to be cleared for any meaningful recovery to take shape. On the downside, immediate support is at $0.00000590. A break below that level brings $0.00000575 into focus. The current price of sits close to the lower support range. If selling pressure intensifies, the coin could test those levels quickly. Traders are watching whether SHIB can stabilize here or whether broader market weakness will push it through support. Friday's macroeconomic data release is expected to play a significant role in determining short-term direction. Shibarium Developments Keep Long-Term Focus Intact Despite short-term price pressure, the Shiba Inu ecosystem is advancing on several fronts. The Shiba Inu SOU program launched on Feb. 17. The initiative, which stands for ”Shib Owes You,” was created in response to a hack that compromised Shibarium's validator keys last September. Every affected user has been issued an SOU NFT. The token serves as a verifiable, on-chain record of what the ecosystem owes each impacted wallet. Payouts, donations, and occasional rewards form the basis of the compensation framework. The Shibarium hack prompted a broader structural review. Developers are currently overhauling the proof-of-stake node architecture. The goal is to move away from a centralized validator model toward a distributed, community-governed system. The change is designed to reduce the risk of future compromises and strengthen network resilience.

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Bitcoin volatility jumps to highest level since March 2025

  vor 6 Monaten

BTC volatility returned to levels not seen since March 2025, as the leading coin is quick to react to any signs of panic. BTC is deleveraged and shows signs of choppy sideways trading. BTC has returned to higher volatility in February. The monthly metric rose to the highest level since March 2025. BTC is now moving sideways, but remains choppy, with rapid daily shifts. In the past week, BTC recovered close to $70,000 on rumors Jane Street had stopped its daily selling. Later, the coin dipped to $65,000 in another downturn. BTC volatility remains elevated The volatility index rose to 2.63% for the latest 30-day estimate, growing from January’s lows of under 1%. On a longer time frame, BTC volatility has been within a bound range for the past three years, signaling a generally mature market. BTC volatility has been growing for six weeks, returning to levels from March 2025. | Source: Bitbo The BTC futures market remains deleveraged, with open interest down to a one-year low of $19.74B. However, this does not prevent short-term rallies and liquidations of long positions. The overall effect is increased volatility and choppy prices, instead of long-term stagnation. The current trading indicators point to the formation of a market bottom, following a sharp capitulation event , and even question the utility of BTC as a whole. Will BTC end February with a loss? BTC traded at $65,987.77 as of February 27, logging over 16% in losses for the month to date. For the first quarter of 2026, BTC is down by over 24% for the first quarter to date. The current monthly loss will be unique in BTC’s history, as the coin has never experienced losses in January and February in a row. BTC will most probably log losses in both January and February for the first time in its trading history. | Source: Coinglass Usually, one of the months sees a relief rally, but in 2026, sentiment was low enough to extend losses for two months in a row. For the entire February, the crypto fear and greed index has been in the ‘extreme fear’ range, with no signs of confident buying and diminishing long positions. BTC is also the only major asset lagging in 2026. Gold is up by over 81%, while silver retained 190% in gains even after its correction. NASDAQ added 21% despite the recent crash in software stocks over the threat of AI disruption. In the short term, BTC has shown it can quickly switch to a more bullish sentiment. The coin is showing signs of a market bottom and may spend some time in accumulation. For now, there are no signs of rebuilding leverage, which is the main driver of directional price moves. In the past, BTC has rebuilt leverage in 3-6 months, but this time, the October 11 liquidation events caused a deep distrust of trading futures. BTC traders and analysts still have not reached a consensus on whether BTC would have a mini bear market or, once again, spend years in sideways trading. The smartest crypto minds already read our newsletter. Want in? Join them .

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