Bitcoin ETF Outflows Trigger Alarming Liquidity Crisis as BTC Struggles Below Key $79,000 Level

  vor 11 Stunden

BitcoinWorld Bitcoin ETF Outflows Trigger Alarming Liquidity Crisis as BTC Struggles Below Key $79,000 Level Bitcoin faces mounting liquidity challenges as persistent outflows from spot exchange-traded funds create sustained downward pressure on the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Recent analysis from Glassnode reveals BTC remains trapped below its critical True Market Mean of $79,000, signaling potential volatility ahead for digital asset investors. The structural price range has dramatically expanded to between $54,900 and $79,000, according to on-chain metrics, while current trading activity concentrates within a narrower $60,000 to $70,000 channel. This development comes amid shifting institutional demand patterns and concerning signals from exchange volume data. Bitcoin ETF Outflows and Institutional Demand Shifts The transition to net outflows in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs represents a significant reversal from earlier institutional enthusiasm. According to The Block’s analysis of Glassnode’s weekly report, this shift has substantially weakened institutional buying pressure that previously supported price appreciation. Meanwhile, the cumulative volume delta on major cryptocurrency exchanges has turned negative, indicating sustained and potentially expanding selling pressure across trading platforms. These combined factors create a challenging environment for Bitcoin’s price discovery mechanism. Market analysts note several key developments in the ETF landscape. First, the initial wave of institutional adoption through approved investment vehicles has encountered profit-taking behavior. Second, traditional financial institutions appear more cautious amid regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic considerations. Third, the correlation between ETF flows and Bitcoin’s price action has strengthened considerably since January 2024 approvals. This relationship now serves as a primary indicator for market sentiment among institutional participants. Structural Price Analysis and On-Chain Metrics Glassnode’s report provides crucial insights into Bitcoin’s evolving market structure through multiple analytical lenses. The True Market Mean calculation incorporates various on-chain data points to establish a more accurate valuation benchmark than simple moving averages. Currently sitting at $79,000, this level represents significant psychological and technical resistance for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. The widening structural range between $54,900 and $79,000 suggests increased market uncertainty and potential volatility expansion. Several on-chain metrics warrant particular attention from market participants: Realized Price Distribution: Shows concentration of investor cost bases Exchange Net Position Change: Indicates accumulation or distribution patterns Miner Revenue Metrics: Reflects network security economics Long-Term Holder Behavior: Tracks conviction among veteran investors These metrics collectively paint a picture of a market experiencing transitional pressures. The $60,000 to $70,000 trading channel represents a consolidation zone where buyers and sellers establish new equilibrium points. However, sustained ETF outflows threaten to disrupt this balance, potentially testing lower support levels within the expanded structural range. Expert Analysis of Market Dynamics Industry analysts emphasize the interconnected nature of ETF flows, liquidity conditions, and price discovery. According to market structure experts, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs initially created substantial buying pressure as institutions established positions. This demand helped propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs earlier in 2024. However, the recent reversal to net outflows suggests several possible scenarios unfolding simultaneously. First, early institutional investors may be taking profits after significant appreciation. Second, traditional portfolio rebalancing could be reducing cryptocurrency allocations. Third, macroeconomic factors including interest rate expectations and inflation concerns might be influencing institutional decision-making. Fourth, regulatory developments and compliance requirements could be affecting fund flows. These factors combine to create the current liquidity pressure environment. The table below illustrates key Bitcoin price levels and their significance: Price Level Significance Current Status $79,000 True Market Mean Resistance Major Resistance $70,000 Upper Trading Channel Immediate Resistance $67,000 Current Trading Price Consolidation Zone $60,000 Lower Trading Channel Key Support $54,900 Structural Range Bottom Major Support Historical Context and Market Comparisons The current market situation bears similarities to previous cryptocurrency cycles while presenting unique characteristics. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced periods of consolidation following major adoption milestones. The 2017 futures approval, 2020 institutional recognition, and 2024 ETF approvals all created initial volatility followed by extended price discovery phases. However, the direct mechanism of ETF flows represents a new variable in market dynamics. Comparisons with traditional financial markets reveal important distinctions. Unlike equities or commodities, Bitcoin lacks centralized production controls or corporate earnings to establish fundamental valuation anchors. Instead, network adoption, security expenditure, and holder distribution create the foundation for price discovery. The introduction of regulated investment vehicles adds traditional capital flow dynamics to this already complex equation. Several historical precedents offer perspective on current conditions. The 2018-2019 bear market featured extended consolidation below previous highs. The 2020-2021 cycle demonstrated how institutional adoption can accelerate price appreciation. The current environment combines elements of both scenarios, with institutional participation now established but facing periodic outflow pressures. Liquidity Implications and Trading Environment Reduced liquidity represents a primary concern for market participants during periods of ETF outflows. Lower liquidity typically translates to increased price volatility and potentially exaggerated market movements. The negative cumulative volume delta on exchanges specifically indicates that selling pressure exceeds buying interest across major trading platforms. This imbalance can create challenging conditions for both short-term traders and long-term investors. Market makers and liquidity providers face particular challenges in this environment. Wider bid-ask spreads may develop as participants demand greater compensation for assuming risk. Reduced order book depth can amplify price movements during periods of concentrated trading activity. These conditions particularly affect institutional-sized transactions, potentially creating additional friction for large buyers or sellers. The cryptocurrency ecosystem has developed several mechanisms to address liquidity challenges. Decentralized finance protocols offer alternative trading venues. Cross-exchange arbitrage helps maintain price consistency. However, these mechanisms face their own limitations during periods of market stress. The concentration of ETF-related trading in regulated venues creates specific pressure points that differ from previous market cycles. Regulatory and Macroeconomic Considerations Broader financial market conditions significantly influence Bitcoin ETF flows and cryptocurrency market dynamics. Central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates and quantitative measures, affect capital allocation decisions across asset classes. Regulatory developments in major jurisdictions create compliance considerations for institutional participants. Geopolitical factors and traditional market correlations further complicate the investment landscape. The United States Securities and Exchange Commission continues to evaluate additional cryptocurrency investment products. Other global regulators maintain varying approaches to digital asset oversight. These regulatory frameworks directly impact institutional participation levels and product availability. Meanwhile, traditional financial institutions balance cryptocurrency allocations against other investment opportunities based on risk-adjusted return expectations. Macroeconomic indicators including inflation data, employment figures, and GDP growth influence overall risk appetite. During periods of economic uncertainty, investors may reduce exposure to perceived higher-risk assets including cryptocurrencies. However, Bitcoin’s characteristics as a potential inflation hedge and uncorrelated asset class continue to attract institutional interest despite short-term flow variations. Conclusion Bitcoin faces significant liquidity pressure from ongoing spot ETF outflows, with analysis indicating sustained challenges below the $79,000 True Market Mean level. The widening structural price range between $54,900 and $79,000 reflects increased market uncertainty, while current trading consolidates within a $60,000 to $70,000 channel. Institutional demand patterns have shifted noticeably as ETF flows turn negative, contributing to selling pressure on cryptocurrency exchanges. These developments highlight the evolving relationship between traditional investment vehicles and digital asset markets, creating new dynamics for price discovery and liquidity provision. Market participants must carefully monitor on-chain metrics, flow data, and structural support levels to navigate current conditions effectively. FAQs Q1: What are Bitcoin spot ETFs and how do they affect market liquidity? Bitcoin spot ETFs are exchange-traded funds that hold actual Bitcoin, allowing traditional investors to gain exposure without directly owning cryptocurrency. Their flows significantly impact market liquidity because large institutional purchases or redemptions require corresponding Bitcoin transactions, affecting supply and demand dynamics. Q2: Why is the $79,000 level particularly important for Bitcoin’s price? The $79,000 level represents Bitcoin’s True Market Mean according to Glassnode analysis, incorporating various on-chain metrics to establish a fundamental valuation benchmark. This level serves as significant technical and psychological resistance, with sustained trading above potentially indicating renewed bullish momentum. Q3: How do ETF outflows create selling pressure on Bitcoin? When investors redeem ETF shares, the fund must sell Bitcoin holdings to raise cash for redemptions. These sales increase selling pressure on the market, particularly when outflows are substantial or sustained. This mechanism directly connects traditional investment flows with cryptocurrency market dynamics. Q4: What is the cumulative volume delta and why does it matter? Cumulative volume delta measures the difference between buying and selling volume on exchanges. A negative reading indicates more selling than buying pressure over the measured period. This metric helps identify whether market participants are predominantly accumulating or distributing assets. Q5: How might reduced liquidity affect Bitcoin traders and investors? Reduced liquidity typically leads to wider bid-ask spreads, increased price volatility, and potentially exaggerated market movements. This environment creates challenges for executing large orders efficiently and may increase transaction costs for all market participants. This post Bitcoin ETF Outflows Trigger Alarming Liquidity Crisis as BTC Struggles Below Key $79,000 Level first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

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Bitcoin ETFs shed $166M as BTC heads for worst start in years

  vor 11 Stunden

Spot Bitcoin ETFs near a five-week outflow streak, with $2.7 billion in losses year-to-date, as 2026 shapes up to be one of Bitcoin’s worst yearly starts.

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Gold Price Soars Past $5,000 Milestone Amidst Soaring Middle East Tensions, Eyes on Critical US Data

  vor 11 Stunden

BitcoinWorld Gold Price Soars Past $5,000 Milestone Amidst Soaring Middle East Tensions, Eyes on Critical US Data Global financial markets witnessed a historic moment this week as the spot price of gold decisively breached the $5,000 per ounce barrier, a staggering rally primarily fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Concurrently, investor focus is now intensely shifting towards upcoming US economic data, specifically the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, which will critically influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path and, by extension, the future trajectory of this precious metal. This unprecedented price action underscores gold’s enduring role as the ultimate safe-haven asset during periods of global uncertainty and economic recalibration. Gold Price Breaches $5,000 on Geopolitical Risk Premium The dramatic ascent of gold above the $5,000 mark represents a significant psychological and financial milestone. Analysts widely attribute this surge to a substantial ‘geopolitical risk premium’ being priced into the market. Recent escalations in conflict zones across the Middle East have triggered a classic flight to safety among institutional and retail investors alike. Historically, gold maintains a strong inverse correlation with global stability; consequently, increased tensions directly amplify its appeal. Furthermore, central banks, particularly from emerging economies, have continued their multi-year trend of aggressive gold accumulation to diversify reserves away from traditional fiat currencies, providing a structural bid underneath the market. Market dynamics reveal a clear pattern. For instance, trading volumes in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and futures contracts on the COMEX have spiked significantly. This activity indicates robust demand from both speculative traders and long-term holders. The rally is not occurring in isolation; it reflects a broader macroeconomic narrative where traditional hedges are being sought after. The table below illustrates key support levels and catalysts in the recent gold rally: Price Level Key Catalyst Market Reaction $4,800 Initial regional escalation Moderate safe-haven inflows $4,900 Reports of expanded conflict zones Accelerated buying from institutions $5,000+ Sustained tensions & technical breakout Massive volume surge, milestone breach US Core PCE and GDP Data: The Next Critical Inflection Point While geopolitics provided the immediate thrust, the sustainability of gold’s rally now hinges on forthcoming US economic data. The core PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, and the advanced GDP estimate for the first quarter are the week’s most anticipated releases. These metrics will offer crucial insights into the strength of the US economy and the persistence of inflationary pressures. A higher-than-expected core PCE reading, for example, would signal stubborn inflation, potentially forcing the Fed to maintain a ‘higher for longer’ interest rate stance. Paradoxically, this could initially support the US Dollar and weigh on non-yielding assets like gold, creating a complex short-term dynamic. Conversely, signs of cooling inflation coupled with slowing economic growth could reinforce market expectations for imminent Fed rate cuts. This scenario is typically bullish for gold, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the zero-yielding metal and exert downward pressure on the US Dollar. Therefore, traders are meticulously analyzing every data point to gauge the Fed’s next move. The interplay between geopolitical ‘push’ factors and macroeconomic ‘pull’ factors creates a volatile but potentially rewarding environment for precious metals investors. Market participants are currently pricing in several potential outcomes based on the data. Expert Analysis on the Dual-Driver Market Financial strategists emphasize the unique confluence of drivers at play. “We are observing a powerful two-engine rally,” notes a senior commodities analyst from a leading investment bank, referencing widely reported market commentary. “The first engine is pure geopolitical safe-haven demand, which is immediate and emotional. The second, more fundamental engine is the global macroeconomic outlook, particularly regarding US fiscal policy, real interest rates, and currency debasement concerns. The $5,000 break is technically significant, but the upcoming data will determine if this is a sustained breakout or a peak driven by short-term fear.” This perspective highlights the need for investors to monitor both headline risks and underlying economic fundamentals. The timeline of events is also instructive. The gold rally began accelerating approximately two weeks prior to the data releases, coinciding with a fresh wave of geopolitical headlines. This pattern suggests that while the initial move was sentiment-driven, its amplification requires validation from hard economic data. Historical precedent shows that gold often experiences sharp rallies during crises, which are then partially retraced or consolidated based on subsequent economic guidance from major central banks. The current environment mirrors this pattern, placing extraordinary importance on the verifiable facts contained in the PCE and GDP reports. Broader Market Impacts and Safe-Haven Flows The surge in gold has reverberated across related asset classes. Mining equities, as represented by indices like the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index, have significantly outperformed the broader equity market. Similarly, silver and other precious metals have experienced sympathetic rallies, though with higher volatility. This movement has also impacted currency markets, with traditional safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen seeing correlated, albeit milder, strength against the US Dollar. The scale of capital allocation into tangible assets signals a broader market sentiment of caution and a search for stores of value outside the traditional financial system. Key impacts of the gold rally include: Portfolio Rebalancing: Institutional investors are increasing their strategic allocation to gold. Currency Markets: Pressure on the US Dollar index as an alternative reserve asset gains favor. Inflation Expectations: Rising gold prices are often interpreted as a market signal for long-term inflation concerns. Retail Demand: Reported increases in physical bullion and coin sales from mints worldwide. These flows demonstrate gold’s multifaceted role in the global financial ecosystem, acting simultaneously as a crisis hedge, an inflation barometer, and a diversifier. Conclusion The breach of the $5,000 gold price level marks a historic chapter for the precious metal, driven by an acute geopolitical crisis in the Middle East. However, the focus now decisively shifts to hard economic data from the United States. The upcoming core PCE and GDP releases will provide essential evidence on the path of inflation and growth, directly informing Federal Reserve policy and determining whether the current gold price surge represents a new long-term paradigm or a peak influenced by transient fear. For investors and observers, this moment encapsulates the delicate balance between geopolitical shock and macroeconomic reality, with the gold price serving as the primary gauge for global risk sentiment and monetary policy expectations. FAQs Q1: Why did gold price rise above $5,000? The primary driver was escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which triggered massive safe-haven buying. Additionally, ongoing central bank purchases and a macroeconomic backdrop of high debt and inflation concerns provided fundamental support. Q2: What is the core PCE data, and why does it matter for gold? The core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. A high reading suggests persistent inflation, which could delay interest rate cuts, potentially strengthening the US Dollar and creating headwinds for gold in the short term. Q3: How does US GDP data affect the gold price? Strong GDP growth might suggest a resilient economy, allowing the Fed to keep rates higher to combat inflation, which is typically negative for gold. Weak GDP growth could increase the likelihood of rate cuts to stimulate the economy, a scenario generally positive for gold prices. Q4: Is gold a good investment during Middle East tensions? Historically, gold has performed well during periods of geopolitical instability as investors seek a reliable store of value uncorrelated to specific governments or economies. However, prices can be volatile, and post-crisis pullbacks are common. Q5: What are the key levels to watch for gold now? Market technicians will watch to see if gold can consolidate above the $5,000 level as support. A failure to hold this level could see a retracement toward $4,800. On the upside, a clear break and hold above $5,100 could open the path for further gains, depending on the fundamental data. This post Gold Price Soars Past $5,000 Milestone Amidst Soaring Middle East Tensions, Eyes on Critical US Data first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

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Markets Brace for Key Fed Inflation Report and Supreme Court Tariff Decision

  vor 11 Stunden

February 20 features the PCE report and a crucial Supreme Court tariff decision. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady amid persistent inflation concerns. Continue Reading: Markets Brace for Key Fed Inflation Report and Supreme Court Tariff Decision The post Markets Brace for Key Fed Inflation Report and Supreme Court Tariff Decision appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

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Bitcoin Is Not Going To Zero

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Summary Bitcoin remains fundamentally sound despite recent volatility and recent fears of the price falling to zero, with zero change to its governance in scarcity, durability, or network effects. In reality, Bitcoin's price action is heavily influenced by global liquidity, Fed policy, and macroeconomic uncertainty, which have been bearing down on Bitcoin, not by changes in core fundamentals. Data shows that spot interest is returning to Bitcoin while selling is gradually normalizing, creating rare setups to cost average into. I maintain a tactically bullish stance, cost-averaging at current levels but prepared to trim positions if sharp rallies occur. Risks remain elevated due to potential Fed hawkishness, inflation surprises, and persistent volatility through the year. Investment Thesis At the time of writing this thesis, Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) has lost almost a quarter of its value since the start of the year and is down 46% since it topped out at an ATH (all-time high) of $126,223.32 in Q4 last year. Bitcoin’s price has momentarily recovered after crashing to a new 52-week low of ~$60k, implying a 52% drawdown from ATH, leading to record lows in the Fear & Greed Index that tracks Bitcoin sentiment. At one of its bearish worsts, Bitcoin’s sentiment is taking a further nosedive with search results like “Bitcoin going to zero” on the rise. In my analysis stated below, I explain why it is un-opportunistic for investors to hold shallow views as search results are trending towards. Instead, I have laid out 3 macro factors that investors must pay attention to. I am still bullish on Bitcoin and am continuing to cost-average my exposure to Bitcoin at these levels. Understand The Macro, To Understand Why Bitcoin Isn’t Worth Zero In late November last year, I issued a bullish post on Bitcoin with the expectation that global liquidity would be improving, turning the tides for Bitcoin after a very turbulent October for Bitcoin last year. Until Jan 17th, Bitcoin’s price had been moderately recovering, but a series of macro events significantly impacted cryptocurrency markets, leading to volatility returning to Bitcoin. I am not changing my bullish thesis just yet, but I will outline my own action plan regarding my exposure to Bitcoin after I explain my updated thesis on Bitcoin. As noted in the previous paragraph, two key macro events seem to have impacted Bitcoin. The first event was the return of the current US administration’s aggressive stance on global trade in January this year, which “short-circuited” the price recovery Bitcoin had been delivering until Jan 17. The significant about-turn in global trade policies forced a re-rating on global liquidity, and portfolio capital eventually picked up on that trail. Spot bitcoin outflows picked up speed, led by spot bitcoin ETFs selling Bitcoin, which at one time hit ~$709M in daily net outflows . The risk-off trade picked up steam, and outflows in cryptocurrencies were paired with significant inflows into assets like gold and silver that do well in times of global turmoil. Exhibit A: Bitcoin loses out to Gold when global turmoil hits markets as shown in the Bitcoin vs Gold ratio. ( LongtermTrends ) The second event to have impacted Bitcoin's outlook, also in January, was the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. Markets were quick to label Warsh as a hawkish pick for the Fed chair, and this Bloomberg article explains all of Warsh’s previous postures on prior monetary policies that made markets label Warsh as “hawkish.” What does Warsh’s nomination have to do with Bitcoin? A lot. One of the examples that Bloomberg points out is Warsh’s prior stance on the Fed’s balance sheet: If Warsh has a signature issue, it was his opposition to QE in the latter years of Ben Bernanke’s chairmanship. He wants to shrink the assets on the Fed balance sheet, an eminently sensible idea that brings with it risks as liquidity in the market is reduced . This is the biggest fear markets have from the Warsh nomination (the part I highlighted in the excerpt above) , which translates into the view that Bitcoin will become an even bigger laggard vs. other assets if the outlook on global liquidity is threatened. It also does not help when the Fed’s latest meeting minutes , released this week, indicate a surprise tone of hawkishness. The meeting minutes showed that more Fed officials were “wary of cutting interest rates when they met last month, with several even suggesting the central bank may need to raise rates if inflation remains stubbornly high.” An increasingly hawkish Fed Board, along with the market's current perceived view of Warsh also being hawkish, has introduced turbulence in Bitcoin since the outlook for global liquidity is expected to remain volatile or range-bound at best until clarity emerges. What I stated in the paragraph above supports the high correlation Bitcoin has had with global liquidity. This brings me to the important question— is Bitcoin really going to zero ? In my opinion, the truth is that Bitcoin’s fundamentals are heavily dependent on the scarcity, durability, and network effects of the underlying token. So far, there has been zero change in the governing framework that promotes the fundamental principles of Bitcoin. For example, the terminal supply of Bitcoin will continue to remain at 21M tokens, and there is no change in that as well. These are the same fundamentals that appealed to retail investors through high liquidity environments during bullish outlooks, and these are also the same fundamentals that appealed to institutional investors like Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin treasury companies. Exhibit B: Bitcoin’s price vs global liquidity continues to diverge as risk-off conditions remain persistent. (B2Geometrics) The only thing that changed is the market's perceived outlook on global liquidity. Note how I said "perceived outlook." The reality is that so far global liquidity has been rising, as seen in the chart above. But markets are, via Bitcoin, staking claims on liquidity crashing. What some analysts and institutions also have been claiming for some time is that much of last year’s bull market in Bitcoin, which drove the price to an ATH of $126,223, was driven more by leverage than by spot interest. In my view, the severe drawdown should be shaking off much of that leverage, but the recovery to Bitcoin’s ATH will be slower than I thought. This is also noted by this analyst , who believes that Bitcoin should be close to its bottom here, as it begins to consolidate at the $60-75k level. I also see that spot interest in Bitcoin is returning as selling pressure begins to normalize. Exhibit C: Spot net flows signal selling pressure in Bitcoin is stabilizing while buying volume gradually returns. (CoinGlass) There are quite a few factors this year that can keep the conditions volatile for Bitcoin at least until the fourth quarter of this year, so I am going to adjust my views on Bitcoin to tactical rather than structurally bullish, at least for a majority part of this year. Warsh is expected to join the Fed sometime in May this year, pending Senate confirmation. Then markets will begin to test the new Fed chair’s appetite for monetary policy stance, which will impact Bitcoin, one way or another. The status quo view is that a hawkish Warsh is bad for the liquidity outlook, hence for Bitcoin. What markets are completely discounting is that Warsh might surprise markets with dovish views, as billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller hints at . And I believe this is not priced into markets. This creates strong opportunities for 'face-ripping rallies,' which I might use to trim my position. Because the outlook for Bitcoin may still be volatile in the lead-up to the midterm elections this year. Through this time this year, macro data also needs to come clear on the inflation narrative. Currently, US Feds, as I noted earlier, as well as markets , as seen in the chart below, are tracking for a modest increase in inflation this year. This needs to be supported by a weaker dollar, which eventually should return my structural bullishness for Bitcoin. Exhibit D: US 10-year inflation swaps climbed 11bp in January, reducing bets on rate cuts hitting Bitcoin’s outlook. (Bloomberg) In summary, I believe that: 1) Current Bitcoin levels are worth buying. I might trim my positions if I do see violent/face-ripping rallies in Bitcoin through H1 this year. 2) Bitcoin is not worth zero but is strongly tied to the outlook on global liquidity. Risks To My Thesis Before I end my thesis, I want to reiterate the risks of investing in Bitcoin since the confusion and chaos in the narrative surrounding Bitcoin continue to persist. The risk of volatility of investing in Bitcoin has never been higher amid the confusion in the investability of Bitcoin. Investors should allocate a share to Bitcoin as is consistent with their risk appetite. The other part that I wanted to reiterate is that macro conditions could worsen from here, complicating Bitcoin’s outlook. There need to be signs of disinflation, which improve the outlook on rates, soften the US dollar, and should return spot interest in Bitcoin. Takeaway As explained in my thesis, I find the notion of Bitcoin being worth zero as decoupled from the token’s fundamentals, with investors distracted from the actual factors such as global liquidity. I am tactically bullish on Bitcoin and have been adding Bitcoin at these levels into my portfolio.

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Sovereign AI Infrastructure: G42 and Cerebras Launch Monumental 8 Exaflops Supercomputer in India

  vor 11 Stunden

BitcoinWorld Sovereign AI Infrastructure: G42 and Cerebras Launch Monumental 8 Exaflops Supercomputer in India NEW DELHI, INDIA – In a landmark development for artificial intelligence infrastructure, Abu Dhabi’s technology conglomerate G42 has partnered with California-based chipmaker Cerebras Systems to deploy a massive 8 exaflops supercomputer in India, marking a significant advancement in the country’s sovereign AI capabilities and computational independence announced during the India AI Impact Summit this week. G42 and Cerebras Forge Strategic AI Partnership for India The collaboration between G42 and Cerebras represents a strategic alignment of Middle Eastern technological ambition with American semiconductor innovation, specifically tailored for India’s growing AI ecosystem. This partnership follows a growing trend of international technology firms recognizing India’s potential as both a massive market and a crucial innovation hub. Consequently, the deployment of 8 exaflops of computing power positions India among nations with substantial domestic AI infrastructure. Manu Jain, CEO of G42 India, emphasized the project’s significance in his statement. “Sovereign AI infrastructure is becoming essential for national competitiveness,” Jain explained. “This project brings that capability to India at a national scale, enabling local researchers, innovators, and enterprises to become AI-native while maintaining full data sovereignty and security.” The system will strictly adhere to India’s data residency regulations and security protocols. Technical Specifications and Sovereign AI Infrastructure The 8 exaflops supercomputer represents extraordinary computational capacity. To contextualize this power, one exaflop equals one quintillion (10^18) floating-point operations per second. Therefore, this system can perform 8 quintillion calculations each second. This capability dramatically accelerates AI model training and inference tasks that typically require weeks or months on conventional systems. Key technical and operational aspects include: Architecture: Built on Cerebras’ wafer-scale engine technology Location: Hosted entirely within India’s borders Compliance: Follows all local data residency and security mandates Access Model: Available to educational institutions, government agencies, and SMEs Collaboration: Involves MBZUAI and India’s C-DAC as project partners Andy Hock, Chief Strategy Officer at Cerebras, highlighted the transformative potential. “Deploying this system in India marks a significant step forward in the country’s computational capacity and sovereign AI initiatives,” Hock stated. “It will accelerate training and inference for large-scale models, enabling researchers and developers to build AI tailored to India’s needs.” The Strategic Importance of Sovereign AI Development Sovereign AI refers to a nation’s ability to develop and control artificial intelligence technologies using domestic infrastructure, data, and talent. This concept has gained tremendous importance globally as countries recognize AI’s strategic significance for economic competitiveness, national security, and technological independence. India’s approach combines international partnerships with domestic control mechanisms. The G42-Cerebras initiative builds upon previous collaborations between Abu Dhabi and Indian entities. Last year, MBZUAI and G42 released Nanda 87B, a Hindi-English large language model based on Meta’s Llama 3.1 70B architecture. This model specifically understands casual speech patterns in both languages, demonstrating the practical applications of such partnerships for India’s linguistic diversity. India’s Expanding AI Infrastructure Landscape The India AI Impact Summit has emerged as a platform for announcing substantial AI infrastructure investments. Alongside the G42-Cerebras announcement, several other major initiatives have been unveiled, collectively representing hundreds of billions of dollars in committed investment. Comparative AI Infrastructure Investments in India: Company/Entity Investment/Commitment Timeframe Focus Area G42 & Cerebras 8 exaflops supercomputer Immediate deployment Sovereign AI compute Adani Group $100 billion By 2035 5 GW data center capacity Reliance Industries $110 billion 7 years Gigawatt-scale data centers OpenAI & Tata 100 MW (scaling to 1 GW) Stargate project phase AI compute capacity U.S. Tech Giants* $70 billion (committed) Various timelines AI and cloud infrastructure *Includes Amazon, Google, and Microsoft India’s Technology Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw revealed ambitious plans to attract over $200 billion in infrastructure investment within the next two years. The government strategy involves a combination of tax incentives, state-backed venture capital, and supportive policy frameworks designed to make India a global AI hub. Global Context and Competitive Positioning India’s aggressive push for AI infrastructure occurs within a highly competitive global landscape. Nations worldwide are racing to establish leadership in artificial intelligence, recognizing its transformative potential across all economic sectors. The United States and China currently lead in AI development and deployment, but other nations are making strategic investments to secure their positions. India’s approach distinguishes itself through several factors. First, the country emphasizes partnerships rather than purely domestic development. Second, India leverages its massive domestic market and talent pool. Third, the focus on sovereign AI addresses growing concerns about data privacy and technological dependence. Finally, India’s democratic framework and English proficiency provide advantages in international collaboration. Implementation Challenges and Strategic Considerations While the G42-Cerebras supercomputer represents a technological achievement, successful implementation requires addressing several practical challenges. Power infrastructure represents a primary concern, as exascale computing systems demand substantial and reliable electricity supplies. India’s ongoing grid improvements and renewable energy expansion will support these needs. Talent development presents another crucial consideration. The availability of skilled AI researchers, data scientists, and engineers will determine how effectively India utilizes this computational resource. Fortunately, India possesses one of the world’s largest pools of STEM graduates, though specialized AI training remains essential. Data governance and ethical frameworks constitute additional priorities. As India develops sovereign AI capabilities, establishing robust guidelines for data usage, model development, and AI deployment becomes increasingly important. The involvement of government entities through C-DAC suggests attention to these regulatory aspects. Conclusion The partnership between G42 and Cerebras to deploy 8 exaflops of AI compute in India represents a pivotal moment in the country’s technological development. This sovereign AI infrastructure initiative provides India with substantial domestic computational capacity while maintaining data sovereignty and security. As part of broader investments exceeding $200 billion, this project positions India as a significant player in global artificial intelligence. The success of this G42-Cerebras collaboration will influence how nations worldwide approach AI infrastructure development, balancing international partnerships with domestic control in an increasingly competitive technological landscape. FAQs Q1: What does 8 exaflops of computing power mean in practical terms? 8 exaflops represents 8 quintillion calculations per second. This enables training complex AI models that would take years on conventional systems in just days or weeks, dramatically accelerating research and development timelines. Q2: How does sovereign AI differ from regular AI development? Sovereign AI emphasizes domestic control over infrastructure, data, and development processes. It ensures that a nation’s AI capabilities operate within its legal frameworks and security protocols, reducing dependence on foreign technologies and protecting sensitive data. Q3: Which organizations will have access to this supercomputer? The system will primarily serve educational institutions, government entities, and small-to-medium enterprises in India. This access model aims to democratize AI capabilities beyond large corporations and foster broader innovation. Q4: How does this initiative relate to India’s existing AI projects? This project complements initiatives like the Nanda 87B language model and collaborates with established institutions including C-DAC. It represents infrastructure development that supports multiple AI applications across different sectors. Q5: What are the data security measures for this system? The supercomputer will follow all Indian data residency requirements, meaning data remains within the country’s borders. The system implements security protocols compliant with Indian regulations, and access controls ensure appropriate data protection. This post Sovereign AI Infrastructure: G42 and Cerebras Launch Monumental 8 Exaflops Supercomputer in India first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

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Bitcoin gains, is still 'signficantly undervalued,' Bitwise says. 'Extreme fear' dominates.

  vor 11 Stunden

Your day-ahead look for Feb. 20, 2026

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Critical $72K Breakout Needed for a Bullish Reversal

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BitcoinWorld Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Critical $72K Breakout Needed for a Bullish Reversal In the dynamic world of cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin (BTC) currently faces a decisive technical juncture. Following a recent low near $65,600, the premier digital asset shows tentative recovery signs. However, a comprehensive analysis by CoinDesk, published on May 22, 2025, underscores a critical condition: Bitcoin must achieve a decisive break above the $72,000 resistance level to signal a genuine bullish trend reversal. This threshold represents more than just a price point; it is a key indicator of shifting market structure and trader sentiment. Bitcoin Price Analysis: Decoding the $72,000 Resistance Level Technical analysts closely monitor patterns to gauge market direction. Currently, Bitcoin’s price action exhibits a concerning structure of lower highs and lower lows . This pattern typically suggests sustained selling pressure or a lack of bullish conviction. Consequently, a clean and sustained move above $72,000 is essential. Such a breakout would invalidate the current bearish structure and potentially establish a new foundation for upward momentum. Market participants globally watch this level, as a failure to reclaim it could prolong consolidation or invite further downside tests. The $72,000 zone previously acted as both support and resistance, amplifying its psychological and technical significance for traders and long-term investors alike. Derivatives Data Signals a Potential Market Bottom Beyond spot price movements, derivatives markets provide crucial insights into trader positioning and market health. CoinDesk’s report highlights several stabilizing metrics. Firstly, the total open interest in Bitcoin futures has rebuilt to approximately $15.8 billion. This metric represents the total value of outstanding derivative contracts. Its recovery suggests that capital is gradually returning to the market after a period of deleveraging, where traders exited leveraged positions. This rebuilding phase often precedes or coincides with a market bottom, indicating reduced panic and more calculated positioning. Options Market Sentiment: The put-to-call ratio, a gauge of bearish (put) versus bullish (call) bets, stands at a near-equilibrium 49:51. The slight tilt toward call options indicates a marginal bias for price increases among options traders. Reduced Futures Liquidations: The volume of forced liquidations in futures markets has decreased significantly. This decline points to less extreme volatility and a reduction in over-leveraged positions, creating a more stable foundation for price discovery. Contextualizing the Current Market Phase Understanding this analysis requires context from recent months. The cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility following the 2024 Bitcoin halving event and evolving macroeconomic conditions, including interest rate policies. The drawdown to the $65,600 level represented a test of a major support zone. Historical data shows that similar periods of deleveraging and open interest contraction have often resolved in strong trend reversals, provided key resistance levels are breached. Analysts from firms like Glassnode and CryptoQuant have previously noted that sustained periods of low futures liquidations often correlate with the end of corrective phases, setting the stage for the next directional move. The Path Forward: Technicals and Fundamentals For a valid bullish reversal, price action must be supported by volume. A breakout above $72,000 on high trading volume would carry far more conviction than a low-volume spike. Furthermore, on-chain metrics such as exchange net flows and the behavior of long-term holders provide additional confirmation. A decisive breakout could trigger a short squeeze, where traders betting against Bitcoin are forced to buy back, accelerating upward momentum. Conversely, rejection at this level would reinforce the current downtrend structure, potentially leading to a retest of lower supports. The interplay between technical levels and derivative market metrics creates a complex but readable map for informed market participants. Conclusion Current Bitcoin price analysis presents a clear narrative. While stabilization is underway, the definitive signal for a bullish reversal hinges on conquering the $72,000 threshold. The accompanying stabilization in derivatives metrics—including recovering open interest, a balanced options skew, and reduced liquidations—suggests the market is maturing past its recent corrective phase. Investors and traders should monitor the $72,000 level closely, as its breach or rejection will likely dictate Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory. As always, comprehensive analysis combining technicals, on-chain data, and macro context remains paramount in navigating the cryptocurrency landscape. FAQs Q1: What does a “decisive break above $72,000” mean? A decisive break typically means Bitcoin closes several 4-hour or daily candles above $72,000 with significant trading volume, confirming the move is not a temporary spike. Q2: Why is the $72,000 level so important for Bitcoin? This level has acted as major support and resistance historically. A breakout would break the current pattern of lower highs, signaling a potential shift in market structure from bearish to bullish. Q3: What is open interest, and why does its recovery matter? Open interest is the total number of outstanding derivative contracts. Its recovery to $15.8 billion suggests traders are re-entering the market with new positions, indicating returning confidence and capital. Q4: How does the put-to-call ratio indicate market sentiment? A ratio of 49:51, with calls slightly dominating, shows options traders have a marginal bias toward expecting price increases in the future, which can be a cautiously optimistic signal. Q5: What could happen if Bitcoin fails to break $72,000? Failure to break and hold above $72,000 could reinforce the current downtrend, leading to further consolidation or a retest of lower support levels around $65,000 or below. This post Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Critical $72K Breakout Needed for a Bullish Reversal first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

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Pundit Presents List of Banks Partnered With Ripple and Ready to Use XRP

  vor 11 Stunden

Institutional adoption remains the backbone of Ripple’s long-term strategy , and every market cycle revives the same question: how deeply has Ripple penetrated the global banking system? As crypto markets regain strength and regulatory uncertainty fades, attention has shifted back to Ripple’s enterprise relationships and whether those partnerships translate into direct XRP usage. Crypto commentator XRP Avengers recently reignited that conversation by publishing an expansive list of banks and financial institutions he says are partnered with Ripple and ready to use XRP. His post quickly gained traction within the XRP community, especially as institutional narratives regain momentum following the formal conclusion of Ripple’s multi-year legal battle with U.S. regulators in 2025. THESE ARE ALL THE BANKS PARTNERED WITH RIPPLE AND READY TO USE #XRP : Banco Santander Bank Of Indonesia Bank Of Thailand Moneygram Cambridge Global Holdings SBI Holdings BBVA Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SCB Siam Commercial Bank Zip Remit InstaRem IndusInd Itau Unibanco… pic.twitter.com/ZiXqLutHxH — XRP Avengers (@XRP_Avengers) February 19, 2026 Ripple’s Expanding Global Network Ripple has spent more than a decade building RippleNet, a global payments network designed to modernize cross-border transactions. Through RippleNet, financial institutions can access faster settlement, standardized messaging, and liquidity solutions. Major banks such as Banco Santander, Standard Chartered Bank , SBI Holdings, American Express, and Bank of America have publicly confirmed collaborations with Ripple on cross-border payment initiatives. In Asia, institutions including MUFG, Mizuho Financial Group, DBS Bank, and OCBC Bank have also participated in Ripple-related programs. These partnerships demonstrate Ripple’s significant institutional footprint across Europe, North America, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific. RippleNet vs. XRP Usage Investors often conflate Ripple partnerships with direct XRP adoption, but the distinction matters . RippleNet provides infrastructure for messaging and settlement regardless of whether institutions use XRP. XRP becomes central when institutions adopt Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity solution, which uses XRP as a bridge asset to eliminate pre-funded nostro accounts. We are on X, follow us to connect with us :- @TimesTabloid1 — TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025 Companies such as MoneyGram previously utilized this liquidity model before regulatory uncertainty disrupted the partnership. Meanwhile, several Asia-Pacific corridors continue to leverage XRP for cross-border flows, particularly where liquidity optimization offers measurable cost savings. Not every institution listed by XRP Avengers has publicly confirmed active XRP deployment. Some have piloted Ripple technology, others have integrated software solutions, and a smaller subset has implemented XRP-based liquidity. Why the Distinction Matters Now The renewed spotlight reflects a broader market shift. With Ripple’s legal overhang resolved and clearer regulatory frameworks emerging in multiple jurisdictions, investors now reassess XRP’s institutional value proposition. Markets no longer focus solely on speculation; they examine infrastructure, adoption, and real-world utility. Ripple maintains one of the largest enterprise networks in the blockchain sector, and that network forms a critical pillar of XRP’s long-term thesis. However, verified adoption data carries more weight than viral lists. As institutional blockchain integration accelerates globally, the next phase will not hinge on announcements alone. It will hinge on measurable XRP usage within active payment corridors. Disclaimer : This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses. Follow us on Twitter , Facebook , Telegram , and Google News The post Pundit Presents List of Banks Partnered With Ripple and Ready to Use XRP appeared first on Times Tabloid .

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EUR/USD Reversal: January’s Surprising Rally Unravels Amid Mounting ECB Risks

  vor 11 Stunden

BitcoinWorld EUR/USD Reversal: January’s Surprising Rally Unravels Amid Mounting ECB Risks LONDON, January 2025 – The EUR/USD currency pair’s strong January rally has abruptly reversed course, according to fresh analysis from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG). Market participants now confront a shifting landscape where earlier optimism about the Eurozone is colliding with renewed concerns surrounding European Central Bank (ECB) policy risks. Consequently, the euro has surrendered significant ground against the US dollar this week, erasing nearly half of its monthly gains. This development signals a pivotal moment for forex traders and global investors who had bet on continued European currency strength. EUR/USD January Rally Faces ECB Pressure The euro’s ascent against the dollar in early January appeared robust and well-founded. Initially, traders reacted to perceived dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and encouraging Eurozone economic data. However, the rally’s foundation began to show cracks as ECB governing council members delivered a series of unexpectedly hawkish communications. Specifically, commentary focused on persistent core inflation and the challenges of a tight labor market. These statements forced a rapid recalibration of interest rate expectations across financial markets. Market pricing for ECB rate cuts in the first half of 2025 subsequently plummeted, removing a key pillar of support for the euro’s valuation. MUFG currency strategists highlighted this shift in a recent client note. They pointed to the stark divergence between market expectations and the ECB’s communicated data dependency. “The market got ahead of itself pricing in aggressive easing,” the note stated. “The ECB is clearly signaling that the last mile of inflation control is the most difficult, and policy will remain restrictive until they are certain of victory.” This recalibration has directly impacted the EUR/USD pair’s momentum. The table below illustrates the rapid change in key market indicators over the past week: Indicator Start of January Current Level Change EUR/USD Spot Rate 1.1050 1.0875 -1.58% Market-Implied ECB Cut (Mar 2025) 25 bps 10 bps -15 bps 2-Year DE-US Yield Spread -180 bps -165 bps +15 bps Analyzing the Core ECB Risks Several interconnected risks emanating from Frankfurt now weigh heavily on the common currency. First, the threat of policy error looms large. The ECB must navigate a narrow path between stifling a fragile economic recovery and allowing inflation to become entrenched. Second, geopolitical fragmentation within the Governing Council presents a communication challenge. Divergent economic conditions across member states complicate consensus on a single policy path. Third, the bank’s balance sheet reduction, or quantitative tightening, continues to drain liquidity from the financial system. This process introduces an element of market volatility that can amplify currency moves. Furthermore, recent data adds complexity to the ECB’s mandate. While headline inflation has cooled, services inflation and wage growth remain stubbornly high. The latest Eurostat flash estimate showed services inflation holding at 4.0% year-on-year. This stickiness suggests underlying price pressures are more persistent than headline figures indicate. Simultaneously, PMI data points to continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, highlighting the growth side of the ECB’s dilemma. Analysts refer to this environment as a ‘high-for-longer’ rate scenario, which typically supports a currency but also raises recession risks that ultimately undermine it. MUFG’s Expert Perspective on Forex Dynamics MUFG’s analysis provides critical context for this reversal. Their research team emphasizes that currency markets are forward-looking discounting mechanisms. The January rally, they argue, priced in an ideal scenario of a ‘soft landing’ for the Eurozone with timely ECB rate cuts. Recent communications have shattered that narrative. “The market is now pricing a higher probability of a policy mistake—either cutting too late and deepening a recession, or cutting too early and triggering a second inflation wave,” explained a senior MUFG forex strategist. This uncertainty premium is inherently negative for the euro, as capital seeks the relative safety and clarity of other markets. The strategist further detailed the technical damage done to the EUR/USD chart. The pair failed to sustain a break above the key 1.1100 psychological level, triggering a wave of stop-loss orders and algorithmic selling. This technical breakdown then fueled a fundamental reassessment, creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral. Key support levels at 1.0950 and 1.0850 were breached in quick succession, confirming the shift in market sentiment from bullish to cautiously bearish in the short term. Comparative Global Central Bank Outlook The EUR/USD move cannot be viewed in isolation. Its trajectory is a function of the relative monetary policy stance between the ECB and the Federal Reserve. While ECB risks have moved to the forefront, the Federal Reserve’s own communications remain pivotal. Recent US data on non-farm payrolls and consumer prices suggest the Fed, too, may delay its easing cycle. This creates a scenario where both central banks are extending restrictive policies, but the perceived risks are currently higher in Europe. The resulting dynamics keep the US dollar bid as a global reserve currency, especially during periods of policy uncertainty elsewhere. Other major banks have echoed aspects of MUFG’s caution. For instance, analysts at Goldman Sachs recently revised their EUR/USD forecast lower, citing “asymmetric risks” for the ECB. They noted that the Eurozone economy has less fiscal buffer than the US to withstand prolonged high rates. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s tentative steps away from ultra-loose policy add another layer to global forex volatility, potentially diverting some investment flows away from European assets. The interplay between these major central banks will define forex trends throughout 2025. Conclusion The EUR/USD pair’s reversal underscores the fragile nature of currency rallies in a data-dependent monetary policy world. The January rally unwound decisively as markets priced in heightened ECB risks , including policy error and persistent inflation. MUFG’s analysis provides a crucial framework for understanding this shift, highlighting the clash between market expectations and central bank guidance. Going forward, traders will scrutinize every ECB speech and Eurozone data release for clues on the timing and pace of any policy shift. The path for the euro remains fraught with uncertainty, suggesting volatility will persist as the central bank navigates its complex dual mandate. FAQs Q1: What caused the EUR/USD January rally to reverse? The reversal was primarily triggered by a shift in European Central Bank communication. Hawkish comments from ECB officials led markets to scale back expectations for early 2025 interest rate cuts, removing a key support for the euro. Q2: What are the main ‘ECB risks’ mentioned by MUFG? The main risks include the potential for a monetary policy error (cutting rates too early or too late), internal divisions within the Governing Council, and the market volatility associated with ongoing balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening). Q3: How does US Federal Reserve policy affect the EUR/USD pair? EUR/USD is a relative price. Its movement depends on the difference between ECB and Fed policy expectations. If the Fed is also seen delaying rate cuts, it can limit the dollar’s downside, but currently, the perceived risks are greater for the ECB, favoring the dollar. Q4: What key economic data are traders watching now? Traders are closely monitoring Eurozone services inflation, wage growth agreements, and GDP growth figures. Any signs of entrenched inflation will delay ECB cuts, while weak growth data will increase recession fears. Q5: What is the technical outlook for EUR/USD after this reversal? Technically, the failure at 1.1100 and break below 1.0950 support has turned the short-term trend bearish. Analysts now watch the 1.0800 level as the next major support. A break below could open the path toward 1.0700. This post EUR/USD Reversal: January’s Surprising Rally Unravels Amid Mounting ECB Risks first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

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