Everstake Partners with Cometh to Bridge Fiat and Crypto Staking Rewards for EU Institutions

BNB's price holds above $900 after slight gain but fails to break key resistance

The Fermi hard fork upgrade has improved BNB Smart Chain's throughput and finality, and Grayscale has filed for a BNB ETF.

Bitcoin Dives Under Miner Costs, Sparks New Market Dynamics

Bitcoin dipped below miner cost, sparking different market outlooks. Blockchain analysis hints at underlying market strength despite turmoil. Continue Reading: Bitcoin Dives Under Miner Costs, Sparks New Market Dynamics The post Bitcoin Dives Under Miner Costs, Sparks New Market Dynamics appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

PEPE Price Prediction 2026-2030: The Realistic Path for Pepe Memecoin’s Ambitious Journey

BitcoinWorld PEPE Price Prediction 2026-2030: The Realistic Path for Pepe Memecoin’s Ambitious Journey As cryptocurrency markets evolve in 2025, investors globally scrutinize PEPE’s potential trajectory through 2030, questioning whether this cultural phenomenon can achieve the symbolic milestone of one cent. Market analysts now examine multiple factors influencing this memecoin’s future. PEPE Price Prediction: Understanding the Current Landscape The PEPE token emerged during 2023’s memecoin resurgence, capturing significant trading volume and community attention. Consequently, its price history reveals extreme volatility patterns common to internet culture-based assets. Market capitalization fluctuations demonstrate both speculative interest and fundamental limitations. Historical data from major exchanges shows PEPE following broader cryptocurrency market trends while exhibiting amplified movements. Trading volume analysis indicates concentrated activity during market euphoria phases, followed by extended consolidation periods. The token’s utility remains primarily cultural rather than functional, affecting its long-term valuation prospects. Regulatory developments in 2024-2025 create additional uncertainty for all memecoins. Market structure analysis reveals PEPE’s correlation with major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum during risk-on periods. Liquidity metrics show improvement since 2023 but remain below established digital assets. Technical and Fundamental Analysis Framework Analysts employ multiple methodologies when evaluating PEPE’s potential through 2030. Technical indicators provide short-to-medium term guidance, while fundamental factors determine long-term viability. The following table summarizes key evaluation metrics: Analysis Type Key Metrics 2025 Status Technical Volume trends, Support/Resistance, RSI patterns Mixed signals with bearish bias Fundamental Development activity, Community growth, Utility expansion Limited progress beyond speculation Market Exchange listings, Institutional interest, Regulatory clarity Gradual improvement with constraints Technical analysis reveals several critical resistance levels PEPE must overcome for sustained growth. Volume profile analysis shows decreasing participation during consolidation phases. On-chain metrics provide mixed signals about holder behavior and network activity. Fundamental evaluation considers these essential factors: Community engagement metrics across social platforms Developer activity and protocol improvements Partnership announcements and ecosystem expansion Competitive positioning within the memecoin sector Market adoption beyond speculative trading Expert Perspectives on Memecoin Valuation Financial analysts emphasize the distinction between price predictions and realistic assessments. According to blockchain researchers at major universities, memecoins typically follow predictable hype cycles. These cycles often culminate in substantial corrections after initial enthusiasm fades. Industry reports from 2024 indicate decreasing institutional interest in pure memecoins without underlying utility. However, some analysts note cultural tokens can maintain relevance through community-driven initiatives. Market data from 2023-2024 shows PEPE maintaining stronger retention than many similar projects. This resilience suggests potential for gradual ecosystem development. Trading pattern analysis reveals PEPE often leads memecoin rallies during bullish market phases. Nevertheless, sustainability requires moving beyond internet culture references alone. 2026-2030 Price Projection Scenarios Multiple scenarios emerge when projecting PEPE’s price through 2030, each requiring specific market conditions. The one-cent target represents approximately a 100x increase from early 2025 levels, demanding extraordinary circumstances. Bullish scenarios assume several favorable developments occurring simultaneously. These include mainstream cryptocurrency adoption accelerating dramatically. They also require PEPE capturing significant market share from established memecoins. Furthermore, substantial utility development must occur within the PEPE ecosystem. Market capitalization analysis reveals the immense scale required for one-cent valuation. The token would need to approach top-20 cryptocurrency status by market cap. Historical precedents show few assets achieving such growth from similar starting points. Moderate scenarios suggest gradual appreciation tracking overall market growth. These projections assume PEPE maintains current relative positioning. They incorporate reasonable utility development and community expansion. Price targets in these scenarios remain substantially below one cent. Bearish scenarios consider regulatory crackdowns or fading cultural relevance. These projections account for memecoin rotation to newer internet phenomena. They also include potential liquidity crises during market downturns. Comparative Analysis with Similar Assets Examining historical precedents provides context for PEPE’s potential trajectory. Several memecoins have attempted similar journeys with varying outcomes. Dogecoin’s decade-long evolution demonstrates both possibilities and limitations. Shiba Inu’s ecosystem expansion shows potential development pathways. However, market conditions during those assets’ growth phases differed significantly. Current regulatory environments impose additional constraints. Market saturation presents another challenge absent during earlier memecoin booms. The table below compares key metrics: Memecoin Peak Market Cap Time to Peak Current Status Dogecoin (DOGE) $88 billion 8 years Established with moderate utility Shiba Inu (SHIB) $41 billion 18 months Ecosystem development ongoing PEPE $1.6 billion 3 months Cultural phenomenon, limited utility This comparative analysis reveals PEPE’s early stage development relative to predecessors. Market conditions in 2025-2030 will differ substantially from previous growth periods. Investor sophistication has increased significantly since earlier memecoin cycles. Regulatory scrutiny presents both challenges and potential legitimacy pathways. The memecoin sector’s overall market share will influence individual project success. Technological developments could enable new utility paradigms for cultural tokens. Market Dynamics and External Factors Broader cryptocurrency market conditions will significantly influence PEPE’s trajectory. Macroeconomic factors including interest rates and inflation impact risk asset valuations. Regulatory developments across major jurisdictions create uncertainty but also potential frameworks. Technological advancements in blockchain scalability and interoperability could enable new use cases. Mainstream adoption trends will determine overall market capitalization growth potential. Institutional participation levels affect liquidity and volatility characteristics. Competing projects continuously emerge, challenging existing memecoins for attention and capital. Cultural relevance evolves rapidly in internet communities, creating sustainability challenges. Market cycle analysis suggests the next major bull market could occur around 2025-2026. However, the magnitude and characteristics of such cycles remain unpredictable. Historical patterns indicate memecoins often peak early in bull markets. They then underperform during subsequent phases as attention shifts to projects with substantive developments. Risk Assessment and Investment Considerations Potential investors must evaluate multiple risk factors when considering PEPE. Volatility represents the most immediate concern, with daily swings exceeding 30% not uncommon. Liquidity risk emerges during market stress, potentially preventing position exits. Regulatory uncertainty affects all memecoins, with potential for restrictive measures. Technological risks include smart contract vulnerabilities and protocol limitations. Market structure risks involve exchange dependencies and trading pair availability. Psychological factors influence memecoin markets disproportionately compared to other assets. These considerations necessitate careful position sizing and risk management strategies. Diversification remains crucial when allocating to high-volatility assets. Long-term holding requires continuous monitoring of fundamental developments. Exit strategies should account for potential liquidity constraints during downturns. Educational resources help investors understand memecoin market mechanics. Professional advice becomes particularly valuable for significant allocations. Conclusion The PEPE price prediction analysis for 2026-2030 reveals a complex landscape with multiple possible outcomes. Achieving one cent valuation requires extraordinary market conditions and fundamental improvements. While theoretically possible, historical precedents suggest low probability for such dramatic appreciation. More realistic scenarios involve gradual growth tied to broader cryptocurrency adoption. The PEPE price prediction ultimately depends on ecosystem development beyond cultural references. Market participants should focus on verifiable metrics rather than speculative price targets. Continuous monitoring of both technical and fundamental developments provides the best guidance. Responsible investment practices remain essential when navigating volatile memecoin markets. FAQs Q1: What factors most influence PEPE’s price potential? Market sentiment, broader cryptocurrency trends, development activity, regulatory developments, and community engagement collectively influence PEPE’s price trajectory. No single factor determines outcomes independently. Q2: How does PEPE compare to Dogecoin in terms of potential? PEPE operates in a more competitive and regulated environment than Dogecoin faced during its early growth. While cultural resonance shows similarities, market conditions differ substantially, affecting growth potential. Q3: What would need to happen for PEPE to reach one cent? Extraordinary cryptocurrency market expansion, substantial utility development, maintained cultural relevance, favorable regulatory treatment, and significant competitive advantages would all be necessary for PEPE to reach one cent. Q4: Are there historical examples of similar price appreciation? Some memecoins achieved dramatic appreciation during specific market conditions, but sustained growth to one cent from current levels would be unprecedented without substantial fundamental improvements. Q5: What should investors monitor when evaluating PEPE? Key metrics include development activity, trading volume trends, community growth, exchange support, regulatory developments, and broader cryptocurrency market conditions. Fundamental improvements matter more than short-term price movements. This post PEPE Price Prediction 2026-2030: The Realistic Path for Pepe Memecoin’s Ambitious Journey first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

Litecoin price prediction 2026-2032: Will LTC recover to $200 soon?

Key Takeaways: Litecoin’s price faces a drop toward $76 Our Litecoin price prediction for 2026 expects the maximum price of LTC to be $160. In 2032, we expect Litecoin to attain a maximum of $1,338.47. Following Bitcoin’s move toward $100K, Litecoin faced increasing buying activity. This surge in activity raises several questions for investors: Is it a good time to invest in Litecoin? Or Will Litecoin (LTC) hold above $200 in 2026? These are common questions that make predicting Litecoin’s price a bit tricky. We have prepared a detailed analysis and forecast of Litecoin price prediction from 2026 to 2032 to assist you with these questions. This article includes the latest updates, news, and technical analysis to aid in your investment decisions. Let’s dive into the most recent predictions for Litecoin’s price for 2026, 2027, and beyond! Overview Cryptocurrency Litecoin Ticker Symbol LTC Rank 19 Price $76.2 Price Change 24-H -1% Market Cap $6.32 Billion Circulating Supply 84 Million Trading Volume (24-hour) $402.69 Million All-Time High $412.96, May 10, 2021 All-Time Low $1.11, Jan 15, 2015 Litecoin price Prediction: Technical analysis Metric Value Current Litecoin Price $76.2 Price Prediction $ 94.78 (+18.04%) Fear & Greed Index 42 (Fear) Sentiment Bearish Volatility 3.40% (Medium) Green Days 15/30 (50%) 50-Day SMA $ 81.29 200-Day SMA $ 99.24 14-Day RSI 58.32 (Neutral) Litecoin price analysis: LTC price declines below $77 TL;DR Breakdown: LTC’s price dropped toward $77 Resistance for LTC is at $87.63 Support for LTC/USD is at $72.52 The LTC price analysis for 13 January confirms that the LTC price faced bearish pressure toward $76. Currently, sellers are holding the price around key support levels. LTC price analysis 1-day chart: LTC/USD declines toward $76 Analyzing the daily price chart, Litecoin experienced bearish pressure as the overall sentiment turned negative. Sellers are now aiming for a push below immediate Fib levels toward $76. The 24-hour volume increased to $61.1 million, showing a surge in interest in trading activity. LTC price is currently trading at $76.2, declining by over 1% in the last 24 hours. LTCUSD chart by Tradingview The RSI-14 trend line has dropped from its previous level and trades below the midline 39, suggesting that sellers are trying to gain control of the price chart. LTC/USD 4-hour price chart: Bears aim for a hold below EMA trend lines The 4-hour Litecoin price chart suggests that bearish domination is increasing to keep the altcoin below the EMA trend lines. Currently, sellers are defending a push above the EMA20 trend line. LTCUSD chart by Tradingview The BoP indicator trades in a positive region at 0.32, signifying that buyers are triggering a minor upward correction. However, the MACD trend line has formed red candles below the signal line, and the indicator aims for negative momentum, strengthening the chances of a bearish push. Litecoin technical indicators: Levels and action Daily simple moving average (SMA) Period Value Action SMA 3 $ 92.31 SELL SMA 5 $ 88.82 SELL SMA 10 $ 85.44 SELL SMA 21 $ 81.60 BUY SMA 50 $ 81.29 BUY SMA 100 $ 91.09 SELL SMA 200 $ 99.24 SELL Daily exponential moving average (EMA) Period Value Action EMA 3 $ 80.68 BUY EMA 5 $ 83.09 BUY EMA 10 $ 89.51 SELL EMA 21 $ 98.37 SELL EMA 50 $ 104.58 SELL EMA 100 $ 103.30 SELL EMA 200 $ 99.96 SELL What to expect from LTC price analysis next? The hourly price chart confirms that bulls induce buying pressure to hold the price; however, sellers may soon return. If the LTC holds momentum above $87.63, it may climb toward $108.86. LTCUSD chart by Tradingview If bulls fail to initiate a surge, the LTC price may drop below the immediate support line at $72.52, which may result in a correction to $66.72. Is Litecoin a good investment? Litecoin is an alternative to Bitcoin, making it an appealing choice for everyday transactions worldwide. Additionally, with a finite cap of 84 million coins, LTC presents itself as a potential investment for value preservation, akin to Bitcoin’s role as a digital asset. Why is the LTC price down today? Sellers are triggering a push below Fib levels as higher levels saw liquidation on the LTC price chart. Will LTC Recover? If bulls hold the price above the $100 level, we might see a strong recovery in the coming days. What is the LTC price prediction for 2026? The forecasted lowest price for Litecoin is $60. According to our analysis, the highest possible price for LTC could be $160, with an average expected price of $125. Will Litecoin reach $100? Litecoin price already touched the $100 mark last year; however, it is now consolidating. By the end of 2026, Litecoin might surge above $150. Will LTC price reach $500? According to our Litecoin price prediction, the LTC price might hit the $500 mark in 2030. However, this rally depends on the future buying interest in the altcoin market. Does LTC have a good long-term future? Despite the recent adjustments and potential peak formation, Litecoin exhibits a robust long-term price trajectory and outlook, indicating a high potential for future growth. If the network continues to witness robust activities and growth, the price might reach $1000 in no time. Recent news/opinion on Litecoin Litecoin was officially added to the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF ($BITW) in December, 2025. However, SEC’s decision on LTC ETF approval is still pending. Litecoin price prediction January 2026 Litecoin’s price shows signs of bullish moves as it has been surging toward $130. However, as BTC’s price aims for a hold above the $100K mark in January, Litecoin’s price intends to end this month on a bullish note. As a result, we might see the LTC price record a low of $80, with a maximum price of $130 and an average price of $105. Month Potential Low ($) Potential Average ($) Potential High ($) Litecoin Price Prediction January 2026 $80 $105 $130 Litecoin price prediction 2026 The forecasted lowest price for Litecoin is $60. According to our analysis, the highest possible price for LTC could be $160, with an average expected price of $125. Year Potential Low ($) Potential Average ($) Potential High ($) Litecoin Price Prediction 2026 60 125 160 Litecoin Price Predictions 2027-2032 Year Minimum Price ($) Average Price ($) Maximum Price ($) 2027 126.67 172.3 200.87 2028 245.93 252.82 291.04 2029 317.79 381.9 423.14 2030 534.25 549.53 651.74 2031 747.98 775.45 899.15 2032 1,095.74 1,126.76 1,338.47 Litecoin price prediction 2027 Litecoin’s growing popularity is evident in its expanding social media presence, particularly on Reddit, with active users reaching 2021 levels before its all-time high. Experts predict a significant rally by 2027, with prices ranging between $126.67 and $200.87 and an average of $172.30. Advancements from the Litecoin Foundation are expected to drive a strong rebound, boosting its market cap and valuation. Litecoin (LTC) price prediction 2028 In 2028, the price of Litecoin is expected to reach a minimum value of $245.93. The maximum price could be as high as $291.04, with the average trading price throughout the year around $252.82. Litecoin price prediction 2029 In 2029, the lowest forecasted price of Litecoin is $317.79. Based on our analysis, the maximum price could rise to $423.14, with an average price of $381.90 for the year. Litecoin’s price forecast 2030 Our detailed analysis of past Litecoin price data indicates that in 2030, the minimum price of Litecoin could be approximately $534.25. The price could peak at $651.74, with an average trading value around $549.53. Litecoin (LTC) price prediction 2031 For 2031, the minimum predicted price of Litecoin is $747.98. The price could reach a maximum of $899.15, with the average trading price expected to be about $775.45 throughout the year. Litecoin price prediction 2032 Our detailed analysis of past Litecoin price data indicates that in 2032, the minimum price of Litecoin could be approximately $1,095.74. The price could peak at $1,338.47, with an average trading value around $1,126.76. Litecoin price prediction 2026-2032 Litecoin price prediction: Analysts’ LTC price forecast Firm Name 2026 2027 Coincodex $174.51 $175.91 DigitalCoinPrice $107.30 $130.63 Cryptopolitan Litecoin price prediction According to the Litecoin price prediction by Cryptopolitan, it is anticipated that various leading institutions will invest in and start accepting LTC as a form of payment. Additionally, the growing frequency of events likely to influence LTC’s price could enhance its public perception. The forecasted lowest price for Litecoin is $60 in 2026. According to our analysis, the highest possible price for LTC could be $160, with an average expected price of $125. Litecoin historic price sentiment Litecoin Price History: Source CoinStats Litecoin traded between $1 and $5 in its early years before surging to over $300 during the crypto bubble of late 2017 to early 2018. In 2021, Litecoin hit an all-time high of $412.96 early in the year but dropped significantly, closing at $144.56 by the end of the year. In 2022, Litecoin experienced significant losses, dropping below $45 mid-year. However, it managed to outperform the broader market despite a nearly 55% decline overall. 2023 saw high volatility for Litecoin, peaking at $114.50 in July but declining sharply due to market pressures, ending the year at $72.80 with a modest 7% rise despite underperforming the broader market. In 2024, Litecoin started the year around $68.20, climbed to $102.40 in April, and then fell below $80. After further declines in May and June, it dropped to $49 in August before rebounding to $70. By November, Litecoin surged past $100 and attempted to hold above $140 in December. In January 2025, the price of Litecoin surged to $140. However, the LTC price crashed in February as it dropped toward the low of $80. In March, the price of LTC consolidated below $90 after failing to break the $100 resistance. By the end of April, LTC price surged toward the $88 but struggled to maintain that level in early May. By the end of June, LTC price declined below $85. In July, the price surged toward $123 but declined later. In early August, the price of Litecoin aimed for a move above $125. However, it later declined and dropped below $110 in early September. In early October, the price of Litecoin surged toward $125 twice but failed to meet buyers’ demand. In November, the LTC price dropped below the $80 level. By the end of the month, the price of LTC consolidated below $85. LTC ended 2025 on a bearish note by trading below $80.

Bitcoin Depot acquires the assets of regional bitcoin ATM operator, Instant Coin Bank

More on Bitcoin Depot Bitcoin Depot: Stellar Q3, But Soft Near-Term Outlook Dampens Momentum Bitcoin Depot Inc. 2025 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation Bitcoin Depot Inc. (BTM) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Bitcoin Depot appoints Scott Buchanan as CEO Bitcoin Depot stock sinks after weak Q4 guidance, Q3 earnings miss

Upexi enters $36M Solana-backed convertible note deal with Hivemind Capital

More on Upexi Upexi, Inc. (UPXI) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Upexi: Offering Registration Likely Limits Upside (Rating Upgrade) Upexi prices up to $23M private placement offering above at-the-market price Upexi announces $50M share repurchase program Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on Upexi

Analyst to XRP Holders: Watch This Before Tomorrow

Crypto markets often move before narratives catch up. Subtle technical shifts can signal powerful momentum changes long before price action becomes obvious to the broader market. XRP now sits in such a phase, where short-term structure is quietly improving while overall sentiment remains cautious. This setup formed the basis of a recent technical analysis shared by STEPH IS CRYPTO, who examined XRP’s near-term charts and highlighted developing signals that traders should monitor closely. His focus centered on trend structure, momentum confirmation, and liquidity behavior rather than speculation. A Key Trend Shift on the 12-Hour Chart Steph began his analysis on the 12-hour timeframe, where he applied EMA ribbons to assess trend direction. He explained that assets trading above the ribbons typically maintain bullish momentum, while those below them remain in bearish territory. According to his analysis, XRP recently reclaimed the EMA ribbon zone with strength, marking a notable change in short-term structure. $XRP HOLDERS: WATCH BEFORE TOMORROW!!! Watch asap! https://t.co/MwLn3NGrCK pic.twitter.com/apIW7F2lsJ — STEPH IS CRYPTO (@Steph_iscrypto) January 12, 2026 He noted that XRP now tests this reclaimed level, a phase that often determines whether a breakout sustains or fails. Steph stated that as long as XRP holds above the $2 range and avoids a breakdown, the short-term outlook remains strongly bullish. Fractal Similarities With Past XRP Rallies Steph compared the current setup to a previous XRP move from July, when the price corrected, broke back above the EMA ribbons, retested them, and then accelerated sharply higher. He explained that the present structure closely resembles that sequence. In his view, maintaining support above $2 keeps the probability of a similar upside move intact. We are on X, follow us to connect with us :- @TimesTabloid1 — TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025 Bullish Reversal Structure on the 4-Hour Timeframe On the 4-hour chart, Steph identified an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which traders widely recognize as a bullish reversal formation. He pointed out that the neckline sits higher than the current price, roughly between $2.38 and $2.40. A confirmed breakout above that neckline, he explained, could open the door for a move beyond $3 in the near term. Steph emphasized that this pattern strengthens the broader bullish case forming across multiple timeframes. Liquidity Heat Map Signals Steph also examined XRP’s liquidation heat map, which revealed that the majority of clustered liquidity remains positioned above current price levels. He explained that such setups often attract price upward, as markets tend to move toward areas where liquidity concentrates. While acknowledging that XRP and the broader crypto market have experienced mild pullbacks in recent days, Steph stressed that the underlying chart structure continues to improve . He concluded that holding above $2 remains the critical condition, as it could mark the early stages of a meaningful short-term reversal to the upside. Disclaimer : This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses. Follow us on Twitter , Facebook , Telegram , and Google News The post Analyst to XRP Holders: Watch This Before Tomorrow appeared first on Times Tabloid .

Whale's Tracking - Gold Over 'Digital Gold'

Summary During last April's "Liberation Day" rally, BTC stabilised first and then rebounded, printing a new high of $126k six months later. Once leverage becomes large enough for flows to dominate fundamentals, BTC behaves like a classic risk asset, being sensitive to liquidity, real rates, and fiscal policy. USD-denominated leverage is also a key reason options markets remain structurally bearish on BTC and ETH. With the Treasury and the Fed unable to fully dictate the pricing of 10-year duration, that level raises the hurdle rate for risk assets. Dear traders and portfolio managers, The first week of 2026 offered investors a distinctly unromantic reminder: when the macro narrative shifts from "growth and inflation" to "institutional and governance risk", performance is no longer about whose story sounds best, but about which assets look most independent under stress. Gold and silver's relative strength, alongside the relative weakness of BTC and ETH, captures that repricing. Hard assets are competing for an "independence premium", while major cryptoassets are increasingly trading like high-volatility dollar risk. This isn't to argue that crypto has lost its long-term case. It's that, in the current framework, the market is focused on three questions: What do you settle in? Who's the marginal buyer? Which risk bucket do you sit in within a portfolio? On those points, the gap between precious metals and crypto is widening. USD-Denominated Leverage and "Institutional Risk" A quick look back at Bitcoin (BTC-USD) over the past year helps. During last April's "Liberation Day" rally, BTC stabilised first and then rebounded, printing a new high of $126k six months later. The "digital gold" narrative mattered, but the real afterburner was USD-settled derivatives. From March to October 2025, open interest in BTC Delta 1 contracts jumped from about $46bn to more than $92bn, giving BTC powerful leverage support and helping it outperform gold in the short run. After the peak, a broad crypto deleveraging and shifting institutional expectations pushed BTC into a sustained drawdown; gold, by contrast, kept grinding higher. Source: TradingView One detail matters: as USDT/USDC and other stablecoins have become entrenched, USD-denominated leverage (not coin-margined leverage) has increasingly driven the marginal move. As exposure is taken through more standardised, more levered channels - exchanges, perps, structured products - behaviour becomes more "portfolio-like": add on risk-on, cut as part of a risk-budget reduction. Whether it's USD pricing, USD collateral, or cross-asset hedging built around the US rate curve, BTC is easily folded into the same USD-based risk framework. So when dollar liquidity tightens, whatever the trigger, BTC is often among the first to feel the effects of de-risking. Source: Coinglass Put differently, the market hasn't suddenly "stopped believing" in digital gold. It's increasingly treating BTC as a tradable macro factor - closer to high-volatility dollar beta than a store of value outside the system. What gets sold isn't so much spot BTC as USD-denominated BTC exposure. Once leverage becomes large enough for flows to dominate fundamentals, BTC behaves like a classic risk asset, being sensitive to liquidity, real rates, and fiscal policy. Gold is different - at least for now. Its price is still driven mainly by spot supply and demand rather than leverage. It also retains monetary characteristics and is widely accepted as collateral: a kind of offshore hard currency. That makes it one of the few assets not directly dictated by day-to-day fiscal and monetary settings. In this environment, that matters. The Trump administration has added to macro and policy uncertainty (think of what happened in Venezuela and Minnesota). For global investors, holding dollar assets and dollar leverage no longer feels like "parking the ship in a safe harbour"; even at the level of pricing and settlement, it carries harder-to-model institutional risk that can challenge the predictability of market rules. As a result, reducing synthetic exposure to US policy risk is a sensible move. Assets more tightly bound to the dollar system - and which behave like risk assets in stress - tend to be cut first. Conversely, assets that are more clearly detached from sovereign credit and less dependent on "permissioned" financial infrastructure appear more favourable in the same risk model. That's a headwind for crypto and a tailwind for precious metals: independence is the point. When markets fear shifting policy boundaries and weaker rule predictability, gold (and other precious metals) earns a higher independence premium. Since 2025, that premium has become more visible. A neat comparison is silver versus ETH. In the public imagination, ETH was once known as "digital silver" (and, in the PoW era, it arguably was). Both have been seen as smaller-cap assets, more prone to squeezes and leverage-driven moves. But ETH, an equity-like asset deeply tied to the dollar system, has long since lost any independence premium. Silver, as one of the historical "offshore hard currencies", has not. Investors are clearly willing to pay up for that independence. The payoff of "independence" is stark: over the year, silver rose 165.78%, while ETH fell 5.01%. Source: TradingView. The "Dollar Beta Discount" USD-denominated leverage is also a key reason options markets remain structurally bearish on BTC and ETH. The "New Year effect" lifted both briefly in the first few sessions, but it didn't shift the longer-dated positioning. Over the past month, as investors have continued to price rising institutional risk in dollar assets, longer-dated bearishness in BTC and ETH has built further. Until the share of USD leverage falls meaningfully, "independence under institutional uncertainty" is likely to stay the market's organising principle. Source: Amberdata Derivatives Source: Amberdata Derivatives At the same time, as valuation expectations for dollar-linked assets are marked down, investors are demanding more risk premia. The 10-year Treasury yield is still elevated at around 4.2%. With the Treasury and the Fed unable to fully dictate the pricing of 10-year duration, that level raises the hurdle rate for risk assets. Yet the "dollar beta discount" associated with USD leverage compresses implied forward returns for BTC and ETH (to 5.06% and 3.93%, respectively). BTC may still look tolerable; ETH, much less so. ETH therefore wears a deeper dollar beta discount: yields aren't competitive, and upside convexity is capped. None of this negates Ethereum's long-term potential - but it does change allocation choices over a one-year horizon. Source: ustreasuryyieldcurve.com Crypto can, of course, bounce back: if financial conditions ease, policy uncertainty fades, or the market pivots back to pricing growth and liquidity, high-volatility assets will naturally respond. But macro investors are focused on taxonomy. When institutional uncertainty dominates, crypto trades like risk assets; precious metals trade more like "exceptionalism assets". That's the message for early 2026: crypto hasn't "failed" - it has simply, for now, lost its pricing slot as an independent asset in this macro regime. Disclaimer: The information provided herein does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice, and should not be treated as such. All content set out below is for informational purposes only. Original Post Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

ESMA, CONSOB warn crypto and finance influencers over content promotion practices

The Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB) published a factsheet from the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) on Tuesday, reminding influencers that EU investment rules apply in the advertising of products like crypto. Italy’s securities commission has told social media “finance influencers” that promoting crypto tokens is not the same as advertising “shoes or watches.” The CONSOB notice called to action the so-called “fin-influencers,” claiming their influence on retail investment behavior has become a concern for the European trading bloc’s financial watchdogs. The notice covered posts promoting cryptos, contracts for difference, forex, futures, and other speculative products marketed as “get rich quick” opportunities. CONSOB treats crypto promotion as regulated investment advice The ESMA factsheet, shared by CONSOB through its official channels on Tuesday, makes it clear that promoting financial products online is not comparable to advertising consumer goods. Short disclaimers and statements like “this is not investment advice,” do not protect influencers from legal responsibility, the Italian financial authority said. “Posting investment recommendations, even in informal language, can qualify as regulated investment advice under EU law. Moreover, telling followers what to buy or avoid may require authorization from a national regulator,” the notice read. According to ESMA, disclaimers cannot supersede regulatory obligations on investment recommendations or advertising. Public figures and influencers who advertise financial products without the watchdog’s permission will be held accountable if their content is personalized or passes for directive advice. The regulator warned that social media posts encouraging risky strategies can have “negative consequences” for retail audiences and inexperienced investors. ESMA and CONSOB insist that any compensation, gifts, or other benefits connected to promotions must be clearly disclosed. “If you are not authorized to provide investment advice, do not provide personalized recommendations on what to buy, sell, or hold. Even publicly sharing your opinion about whether a stock or cryptocurrency will rise or fall, or promoting an investment strategy, may be considered an investment recommendation, to which specific rules may apply,” CONSOB wrote in its statement. Some of the products mentioned included CFDs, leveraged forex trades, certain crowdfunding investments, and cryptocurrencies, and any asset that would result in the loss of all invested capital. The authority explained that influencers are legally responsible for the content they publish, so any misleading, exaggerated, or reckless posts would lead to sanctions under EU financial law. Italy joins European countries in financial influence enforcement The Italian notice fits into the European clampdown on online investment promotion, which ESMA first addressed in October 2021. At the time, the EU markets watchdogs propounded that misleading social media posts and undisclosed conflicts could breach the Market Abuse Regulation. In serious circumstances, this kind of behavior could be seen as illegal investment advice or even market manipulation under EU legislation. Individuals who break the rules can be fined up to five million euros, while institutions can be fined even more. In France, the Autorité des marchés financiers partnered with the advertising watchdog ARPP in 2023 to launch a Responsible Influence Certificate. The program requires influencers promoting financial products, including crypto assets, to complete training and testing before working with ARPP member brands. Over to the west, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) fined Kim Kardashian $1.26 million for promoting EthereumMax tokens on Instagram without disclosing a $250,000 settlement for the advertisements. CONSOB strengthens domestic law after MiCA compliance deadline At the end of last year, Italy’s Companies and Exchange Commission reported that the number of blocked investment websites had now topped 1,500, six years after the start of the enforcement period. CONSOB was granted authority back in 2019 to order internet service providers (ISPs) to block websites run by unregistered virtual asset service providers. Since then, the regulator has reportedly shut down 1,507 websites and blocked 763 individual web pages, taking the total number of blocked domains to 2,270, as of the start of 2026. CONSOB also reiterated upcoming regulatory deadlines for crypto service providers operating in Italy. VASPs in the jurisdiction without the proper licensing were allowed to continue issuing services until the end of December last year, in tandem with the EU’s crypto law Markets in Crypto Assets ( MiCA ) regulation. If you're reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there with our newsletter .