Bitcoin’s recent rally appears to lean heavily on institutional investor and client demand for the asset, with broader market conditions increasingly shaping price direction.
Fidelity Labs managing partner Parth Gargava says bitcoin may be transitioning away from its familiar, halving-linked four-year rhythm and into something closer to a “supercycle”, a regime that could keep prices elevated for longer and make drawdowns less severe, if structural demand continues to build. Speaking in Fidelity’s Jan. 9 crypto outlook for 2026 video, Gargava anchored the discussion in the cycle framework many market participants have used for years: peaks arriving roughly a year and a half after each halving. “Traditionally, what we have seen is Bitcoin has had this four-year cycle,” he said, adding that the pattern has been “highly correlated to Bitcoin’s halving events.” He pointed to the 2016 halving followed by a peak in December 2017 near $20,000, and the 2020 halving followed by another peak in 2021 about 18 months later. That history matters because it frames the debate around the most recent halving in April 2024. Gargava acknowledged the straightforward inference some investors make from prior cycles: “So maybe we are past that peak price.” But he positioned that view as only one side of the argument, highlighting a competing thesis that the market’s structure is evolving. Related Reading: Bitcoin HODLer Selloff Ending? LTH Outflows Decline “On the other side, you’re also seeing a lot of arguments around how we might have entered into a supercycle as opposed to what we have seen in the past four years,” Gargava said. “And what a super cycle really means is you might have more prolonged highs, longer highs, and shallower dips.” Gargava credited Fidelity Digital Assets’ research team for outlining what he called the “super cycle mechanism,” and suggested an analogy to the commodities market in the 2000s. The key point was not that bitcoin would mechanically copy commodities, but that a sustained, multi-year bid can alter how markets behave, extending expansions and compressing the depth of selloffs. JUST IN: $5 trillion Fidelity talks about how #Bitcoin might have entered a “supercycle” Bullish 🚀 pic.twitter.com/IUv3GVHwEW — Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 12, 2026 Three Forces That Could Push Bitcoin Into A Supercycle He outlined three drivers he believes could underpin that kind of regime shift. First is “steady buy-in by institutions focused on ETFs,” which Gargava framed as persistent demand rather than episodic speculative bursts. In his telling, ETFs can function as a channel that keeps incremental capital flowing even when sentiment softens, potentially changing the market’s typical post-peak unwind. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tops $92,000 As DOJ Subpoenas Escalate Trump-Powell Fight Second is policy. Gargava pointed to “pro-crypto policies” in the US as a supportive backdrop, implying that a friendlier regulatory stance could reduce headline risk and encourage broader participation from investors and intermediaries that previously stayed on the sidelines. Third is market maturation and changing correlations. “We’re also seeing how the crypto market as a whole is maturing and deviating from the S&P 500 and precious metals,” he said. The implication is that bitcoin’s trading behavior may be becoming less captive to traditional risk-asset moves and the simple “digital gold” narrative, an evolution that could matter for positioning, hedging, and macro sensitivity. Notably, Gargava did not claim the four-year cycle is definitively broken. Instead, he presented a live question for 2026: whether bitcoin continues to follow a post-halving path that culminates in a familiar, sharp boom-and-bust pattern, or whether structural forces: ETF-driven institutional demand, a more supportive US policy tone, and a maturing market profile support a longer, steadier expansion with “shallower dips.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,182. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The crypto market has outgrown “public-by-default.” In a world where every wallet move can be traced, clustered, and weaponized, transparent blockchains expose users to doxxing, strategy leakage, treasury targeting, and real-world security risk. Noctura is built to end that era—delivering a next-generation, compliance-ready privacy protocol on Solana with a dual-mode wallet designed for both retail simplicity and institutional confidence. Unlike legacy privacy tools that trade usability for complexity—or privacy for listings—Noctura introduces a wallet-first experience where privacy is a toggle, not a separate chain . In Transparent Mode , users retain full Solana composability across DeFi and NFTs. In Shielded Mode , sender, receiver, and amounts are protected using zero-knowledge architecture anchored on- chain (commitments, nullifiers, and Merkle roots), with proofs generated off-chain and verified on Solana for finality and correctness. What makes Noctura “institutional by design” is its Selective Disclosure engine : View Keys and Audit Tokens enable scoped, revocable, time-limited verification (e.g., proof-of-funds, origin/KYC pointer assertions) without exposing a full transaction history. This approach is engineered for real- world markets—privacy that can survive due diligence, counterparties, and exchange requirements without turning users into open books. At the center is $NOC , the utility token powering Shielded Mode fees, prover/relayer incentives, staking, and governance—creating a direct, usage-driven flywheel as private activity grows. Noctura’s design posture emphasizes measured performance over hype , targeting hundreds of shielded TPS at launch with scaling via batching, aggregation, and GPU proving lanes. The Noctura $NOC presale begins January 20 , featuring an on-chain, multi-stage structure intended to reward early participation while maintaining transparent mechanics and verifiability. Participation details, documentation, and updates are available via the official channels below. About Noctura Noctura is a compliant privacy protocol on Solana delivering a dual-mode wallet (Transparent + Shielded) and selective disclosure primitives built for speed, security, and institutional adoption Website: https://noc-tura.io/ X(twitter): https://x.com/NOC_tura_ Telegram: https://t.me/NocturaNOC Discord: https://discord.com/invite/j7kc2fJw4T GitHub: https://github.com/NOC-tura
While the firm sees a more stable macro backdrop forming as US deficits shrink relative to GDP, it is still cautious on Bitcoin in the near term as its traditional four-year cycle appears to have broken in 2025. Analysts largely view the outlook through a medium-term lens, arguing that excess leverage has been cleared and that improving regulatory clarity, fiscal support, and geopolitical pressures are creating an environment that could ultimately benefit Bitcoin and crypto markets in the first half of the year. Risk-On Conditions Emerge Global investment management firm VanEck shared its outlook for the first quarter of 2026, arguing that markets are entering a rare period of improved visibility after years of uncertainty. In its Q1 2026 outlook , the firm said investors now have clearer signals around fiscal policy, monetary direction, and dominant investment themes. These conditions typically support a risk-on environment across financial markets. X post from VanEck That backdrop is generally favorable for higher-risk assets like technology stocks, artificial intelligence plays, and cryptocurrencies. However, VanEck struck a more nuanced tone when it comes to Bitcoin , and pointed out that the asset’s traditional four-year cycle appears to have broken in 2025. According to the firm, this disruption complicates short-term signals and supports a more cautious outlook over the next three to six months, even as some executives in the company are more optimistic about Bitcoin’s immediate trajectory. BTC’s price action over the past 6 months (Source: CoinCodex ) VanEck also pointed to a gradual improvement in the US fiscal picture as a key macro driver. While deficits remain elevated, they are shrinking as a percentage of GDP compared with the extreme levels seen during the COVID period. The firm said this fiscal stabilization is helping to anchor longer-term interest rates and reduce tail risks, which contributes to a more stable environment for markets overall. Analysts mostly agree that the outlook should be viewed through a medium-term lens rather than focused on short-term price swings. Justin d'Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, said recent price action suggests excess leverage has been flushed out of the system. He argued that Bitcoin’s rise in a low-leverage environment points to healthier market conditions, with bullish sentiment becoming more grounded and bearish forecasts losing their more extreme edge. Others see a clearer runway forming for the first half of the year. Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, said that after the volatility and adjustments of late 2025, the market trajectory for the first half of 2026 now appears relatively well defined. With US midterm elections approaching, he expects fiscal and financial conditions to increasingly favor risk assets, supported by stimulus, accommodative monetary policy, and improving regulatory clarity. Broader macro conditions are also fueling optimism among crypto investors. Will Clemente said that rising geopolitical risk, pressure on central banks, strong equity markets, and sovereign diversification into alternative assets create an environment that is closely aligned with Bitcoin’s original investment thesis.
Switzerland-based investment product provider 21Shares has listed its Bitcoin and Gold exchange-traded product (ETP), BOLD, on the London Stock Exchange, marking the first product on the venue to combine exposure to both Bitcoin and gold within a risk-managed structure. Trading begins on Tuesday 13 January 2026 under the tickers BOLD (GBP) and BOLU (USD). BREAKING The 21Shares Bitcoin and Gold ETP (BOLD) has listed on the London Stock Exchange, 13 January 2026. Charlie Morris, ByteTree Founder and Creator of BOLD, commented: "This listing on the London Stock Exchange is another significant milestone for BOLD having already… pic.twitter.com/8dYGNcq6XU — ByteTree (@ByteTree) January 13, 2026 The listing follows the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s decision in October 2025 to lift restrictions on Bitcoin ETPs for professional investors, opening the door for a broader range of crypto-linked investment products to enter the UK market. A Hybrid of Two Scarce Assets BOLD blends the world’s two most liquid alternative assets—Bitcoin and gold—into a single, physically backed product. The strategy is designed to capture Bitcoin’s upside while reducing volatility through diversification with gold, which has historically exhibited lower price fluctuations and low correlation with digital assets. According to the firm since launching in Switzerland in April 2022, BOLD has delivered a total return of 122.5% in GBP terms through the end of 2025, including fees. This compares with returns of 111.3% for Bitcoin and 113.0% for gold over the same period, highlighting the benefits of combining the two assets within a rebalanced portfolio. Risk-Weighted Rebalancing Strategy According to the firm unlike a simple 50/50 allocation, BOLD uses a monthly risk-weighted rebalancing approach based on 360-day inverse volatility. This means the less volatile asset receives a higher weight, with the aim of maintaining an equal level of risk exposure to both Bitcoin and gold rather than equal capital allocation. The monthly rebalancing process systematically trims the stronger-performing asset and increases exposure to the weaker one. According to data from BOLDETF.com, this mechanism has generated an additional 5–7% in excess returns per annum on average, while delivering a smoother performance profile closer to that of gold alone. Performance Across Market Cycles Since the Bitcoin market peak in late 2017, the BOLD Index has returned 450.3%, outperforming both Bitcoin and gold individually, as well as a static 50/50 allocation. The strategy’s design allows it to adapt during periods of sharp volatility. For example, following Bitcoin’s decline in February 2025, the subsequent monthly rebalance increased Bitcoin exposure, restoring the portfolio to its target risk levels. Institutional Structure and Availability BOLD is physically backed, with gold custody provided by JP Morgan and Bitcoin held with Anchorage Digital Bank N.A. and Copper Technologies (Switzerland) AG. The product carries a total expense ratio of 0.65% and trades intraday, offering liquidity and transparency for institutional and professional investors. Already listed on exchanges in Zurich, Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam and Stockholm, the London listing expands BOLD’s reach as demand grows for diversified, risk-adjusted exposure to digital assets and hard money in a single, regulated vehicle. Digital Asset Funds See $454M Weekly Outflows Latest CoinShares data shows digital asset investment products recorded $454 million in net outflows last week extending a sharp reversal in investor sentiment that has largely erased gains made at the start of the year. The pullback follows a four-day streak of outflows totalling $1.3 billion which has nearly wiped out the $1.5 billion of inflows recorded during the first two trading days of 2026. The abrupt shift appears closely tied to cooling expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in March after recent macroeconomic data suggested inflation may remain more persistent than markets had anticipated. The post 21Shares Lists Bitcoin-and-Gold ‘BOLD’ ETP on London Stock Exchange appeared first on Cryptonews .
Stretch traded $175.7 million on Monday, almost three times its 30 day average trading volume.
Summary HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. operates a dual model with Bitcoin mining and BUZZ HPC/AI, which is the intended next growth engine. HIVE’s hydro expansion rapidly lifted its hashrate and mining output, and management targets another 100 MW at Yguazú by Q3 2026. I also think the stock has a compelling ESG angle with its hydropower and heat reuse. Its Grand Falls facility will potentially scale to 25,000+ GPUs. So, after a steep drawdown, I argue HIVE’s valuation looks quite cheap relative to its peers and mining ramp-up ambitions. HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. ( HIVE ) is a digital infrastructure firm that pairs large-scale Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) mining with an emerging high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence ((AI)) data center platform under BUZZ HPC. HIVE’s operations are executed in locations in Paraguay, Sweden, and Canada. BTC mining is the major contributor of revenue, while HPC/AI is the next planned growth engine. The company produced 306 BTC in December 2025, which constitutes an increase of 197% YoY. So, despite the massive pullback in the past couple of months, I continue to believe HIVE has a great future ahead. And I think this HIVE dip offers a compelling opportunity for new investors at these levels. Betting on HPC, AI, and Crypto HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. has steadily become a diversified digital infrastructure company with two main businesses: 1) bitcoin mining and 2) high-performance computing (HPC) and AI data centers. The company went public as HIVE Blockchain Technologies in 2017 and changed its name to the current one in 2023. Currently, HIVE is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, with operating blockchain and AI facilities across Paraguay, Sweden, and Canada. I previously covered HIVE last October, and since then, the stock has declined by approximately 44.5%, so I thought it was worthwhile revisiting this name. Source: Q2 F2026 Results Webcast. September 2025. As a quick recap, HIVE’s business is based on Bitcoin mining and BUZZ HPC , which is a subsidiary that delivers GPU-based AI and HPC services. Bitcoin mining is still the dominant contributor, with approximately $82.1 million for their most recent quarterly revenues , while HPC and AI revenue is only $5.2 million. Additionally, HIVE integrates Tier I mining data centers that produce around 10 BTC per day and Tier III HPC/AI data centers, which are their long-duration growth plan. Moreover, HIVE uses renewable energy from hydroelectric sources, which I think can give the stock some ESG appeal as well. For example, in Paraguay , the company has two sites, one of 100 MW in Valenzuela and a second facility in the Yguazú of 200 MW, both of which are powered by the Itaipú Dam hydro. In Boden, Sweden , HIVE has three facilities, with a total capacity of 40 MW, also powered by hydroelectric power. On top of that, HIVE’s Canadian operations use data centers in two locations: Lachute, Quebec, with 35 MW, and New Brunswick, with 65 MW. At its Lachute mining facility, most of the electricity that is consumed is converted into heat, plus a smaller portion into useful computing work, applying a circular energy idea of turning waste into something useful. Essentially, instead of simply having their facilities emit heat (the usual approach), HIVE recaptures their heat by moving hot air through ducts and heat exchangers. Then it reroutes it into a nearby industrial building. This is a very large partner facility (200,000 sq. ft.), which provides them with heating during winters while lowering energy costs and emissions. Source: Q2 F2026 Results Webcast. September 2025. Furthermore, HIVE acquired an additional 32.5 acres in Grand Falls, New Brunswick , near its existing facility. The company aims to use this site to expand as a future Tier III plus HPC data center campus. Tier III is meant to signal enterprise-grade reliability and redundancy as part of its AI strategy. The facility is planned to be capable of scaling to over 25,000 GPUs, and it has the advantage of proximity to the Maine border near hyperscalers, such as Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, that may want some of this computing capacity. AI Ambition and Record Bitcoin Production It’s also worth highlighting that HIVE continues to invest in HPC data centers to supply the growing compute demand for generative AI, machine learning at scale, and real-time processing. All of those operations are compute-intensive, and the company expects they’ll generate long and sustained demand for its data centers. HIVE’s approach is to provide high-density racks, liquid cooling, and heavy-duty electrical and redundancy infrastructure in HPC data centers that will feed AI in general. Besides, HIVE mentioned they have the know-how of bitcoin miners, which is somewhat transferable into AI infrastructure as part of their transition from Bitcoin mining Tier I to Tier III HPC data centers. Yet, it’s undeniable that Bitcoin mining itself remains the main value driver, at least in the near term. Fortunately, by November 2025, the company achieved 23 exahash per second (Eh/s) in total Bitcoin-mining compute, which corresponds to a 283% YTD growth. Then, by December 2025, HIVE reported they had mined around 306 BTC. Source: Q2 F2026 Results Webcast. September 2025. Note that HIVE’s December mining capacity corresponds to approximately 9.9 BTC per day, with an average hashrate of 23.3 EH/s. In total, in 2025, HIVE produced 2,311 BTC, which is up 31% from 1,770 BTC the previous year. These goals were achieved despite the Bitcoin halving, which reduces block rewards and significantly increases the average network mining difficulty. Looking ahead, HIVE plans to build an additional 100 MW of hydro-powered capacity at the Yguazú campus in Paraguay. Management believes they can energize and ramp these facilities to full capacity by Q3 2026. That way, HIVE will have an impressive 400 MW in Paraguay and 140 MW across Canada and Sweden. Valuation and Risk Analysis Now, from a valuation perspective, HIVE currently trades at a $744.0 million market cap. This is actually a 53% pullback from its 2025 highs. And their latest balance sheet from Q3 shows they hold $48.3 million in cash and short-term investments against $18.3 million in financial debt (aside from other regular operating liabilities). In total, their book value reached $624.6 million, which also indicates a reasonable P/B of just 1.2. For comparison, their sector’s median P/B is closer to 3.8, so the stock already looks somewhat cheap from this angle. Source: Seeking Alpha Charts. Moreover, according to Seeking Alpha’s dashboard on HIVE , the company is projected to generate $479.7 million in revenues by 2027. That would also price HIVE at a compelling forward P/S of 1.6. This is again notably lower than its peers’ median forward P/S of 3.5. That’s why, after such a steep pullback, I feel the stock now offers compelling value for new investors at these levels. Source: Seeking Alpha. Naturally, the stock does have its risks, and the most important one is its direct exposure to Bitcoin. Even though this is likely the safest token within that asset class, cryptocurrencies as a whole are notoriously volatile. To give you an idea, Bitcoin has declined from almost $125,000 back in October 2025 to around $92,000 at the time of this writing. This is over a 26% decline since then, and it’s likely a key contributor to HIVE’s recent underperformance. Plus, it’s not guaranteed that Bitcoin is near its bottom, especially since Bitcoin may be near the end of its typical “ 4-year cycle ,” and it’s already experiencing a significant drawdown. If that’s the case, HIVE could keep facing this secular headwind for much longer than investors may anticipate. On top of that, Bitcoin’s post-halving economics (i.e., increased mining difficulty) and recent price pullback can quickly compress HIVE’s margins. And if power costs also increase in the geographies it operates, then HIVE could face very unfavorable economics in the near term, despite reaching record-level mining capacity. Source: Q2 F2026 Results Webcast. September 2025. In fact, this dynamic could deepen their already considerable cash burn, which I estimate reached $38.9 million in Q3 2025. Note that I got that figure by simply adding HIVE’s latest quarterly cash flows from operations and CAPEX. And that number implies HIVE already has a tight runway of only 1.2 more quarters. I imagine that’s why HIVE had to secure a new $300 million ATM , which should give it some room for maneuvering. Yet, this also introduces dilution risks in the near term, which should be a headwind for its stock price nonetheless. Conclusion: Viable but Undoubtedly Cyclical Overall, HIVE’s bull case still rests on Bitcoin. In that sense, I believe HIVE’s quick capacity ramp-up will eventually pay off for patient investors. Unfortunately, in the near term, I can’t ignore that there are a couple of key headwinds with Bitcoin potentially nearing the end of its current 4-year cycle and tight cash runway. That’s why I think the market is justified in becoming a bit more skeptical of HIVE’s short-term prospects. However, after such a steep pullback, I believe the shares are too oversold to lean neutral or bearish. That’s why I ultimately reiterate my speculative “Buy” rating on HIVE at these levels.
Ethereum just achieved another on-chain boost as the total number of users transacting per week hits a new high.
The privacy coins narrative is not abandoned, as more attention has shifted to legacy coins. XMR and DASH extended their rallies with a growing mindshare. Privacy coins are back, with attention this time shifting to Monero (XMR) as the leading coin. Legacy asset DASH also increased its influence in the past few days. The privacy coins narrative demonstrated its strength despite the slowdown of ZCash (ZEC), which was the original runner. Currently, XMR has taken the role of the leading privacy coin, extending its rally to new all-time highs. As Cryptopolitan reported earlier, XMR had a series of new records, which are now turning into an even more dramatic trend. XMR becomes the privacy coin leader While ZEC consolidated above $400, XMR extended its rally. The coin expanded to $679.14, marking a series of records within minutes on Tuesday. The recent XMR rally meant some of the early Monero supporters from the 2018 bull cycle are finally in profit with a new all-time peak. XMR lagged behind other assets and was barely touched by the series of bull markets, as the coin was delisted from most exchanges. XMR expanded to new all-time highs on a mix of a short squeeze and an accelerating privacy narrative. On Asian markets, XMR orders peaked at over $1,000. | Source: CoinGecko . XMR failed to live up to the expectation for a four-digit price, but the recent rally is reviving those predictions. The coin saw anomalous orders all the way up to $1,000 on the Asian markets, driving the rest of the exchanges to follow. Monero re-emerged despite the exchange delistings and is now serving as an alternative to ZEC as the go-to privacy coin. With stricter wallet reporting regulations, XMR is rediscovering its niche as a hard-to-trace store of value, which cannot be linked to an identity or a wallet cluster. XMR is now in price discovery territory, though with 44% of volumes concentrated on KuCoin. Kraken is the most open platform for trading XMR, though the coins must be deposited as non-anonymous assets. Open interest for derivative traders also jumped to a new all-time high, from a baseline of $30M to over $184M. Over 61% of the open positions are shorting XMR, meaning the rally is partially a short squeeze to liquidate positions. DASH returns along with other legacy privacy coins DASH was also among the day’s top gainers, expanding to over $51. However, DASH is still far from its all-time peak of over $1,100. The privacy coin still benefits from a Binance pair, as the asset was not delisted during the removal of privacy coins. Decred (DCR) also expanded to $18.89 with a strong intra-day rally, though the token has not grown its influence and is only reacting to the privacy narrative. XVG moved back to a one-month high of $0.007. At this stage, XMR is still the main engine of growth, but smaller tokens may be picked for short-term gains. Despite the lack of an overall altcoin market, the privacy narrative is seen as a strong source of growth for the year ahead. Claim your free seat in an exclusive crypto trading community - limited to 1,000 members.
The cryptocurrency market’s performance has improved over the past few hours as Bitcoin, Ether, and other leading cryptos are in the green. Monero’s XRM is leading the way in terms of performance as it hit a new all-time high of $688 an hour ago, adding 17% to its value in the last 24 hours. Ether has reclaimed the $3,100 level and could rally higher in the near term as the bullish momentum in the market increases. BitMine purchases 24k Ether to bring total holdings to 4.17 million BitMine Immersion Technologies announced today that it added 24,266 Ether to its balance sheet last week, lifting its holdings to 4,167,768 tokens as of Sunday. The purchase pushes BitMine’s share of ether’s circulating supply to 3.45%, with a goal to ultimately corner 5% of all tokens. However, according to BitMine’s chairman, Thomas Lee, the company’s ability to continue accumulating ETH depends on shareholder approval to authorise new equity issuance. If the shareholders don’t approve, BitMine could be forced to slow its buying over the next few weeks. “We need to pursue this increase now as Bitmine is soon to exhaust its current 500 million authorisation. And when that happens, our ETH accumulation will slow,” Lee added. A shareholder vote will take place on Thursday. 50.1% of the votes will be needed to approve the proposal to proceed. Following this recent acquisition, BitMine’s total assets, including crypto, cash, and strategic investments, surged to $14 billion last week, boosted by ETH’s price surpassing $3,100. BitMine also increased its cash reserves by $73 million to $988 million. The company holds 193 bitcoin and a $23 million stake in Eightco Holdings. Furthermore, BitMine also staked over 1.2 million of its ETH, which allows it to earn revenue on its holdings. ETH eyes $3,500 as crucial support level holds The ETH/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish as Ether has lost 3% of its value in the last seven days. At press time, ETH is trading at $3,133, up by less than 1% since Monday. The technical indicators remain bullish, suggesting that buyers are still in control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 54 is above the neutral 50, indicating a bullish bias. The MACD lines are also within the positive territory as buyers remain in charge. If the bullish trend strengthens, ETH could surge towards the next major resistance level and Transactional Liquidity (TLQ) at $3,300. An extended bullish scenario could see ETH reclaim $3,500 for the first time since November 13. However, if the market undergoes a correction, ETH could retest the Thursday low of $3,038. The next major support level stands around the $2,900 region. The post BitMine adds 24,000 Ethereum tokens as ETH reclaims $3,100 appeared first on Invezz