Nigeria to Track Crypto Transactions Using National Identification Numbers and Tax Records

  vor 4 Tagen

Nigeria has revealed new tax law mechanisms that could eventually make cryptocurrencies traceable using national IDs. The Nigerian Tax Administration Act (NTAA) 2025 noted that the government is planning to track crypto transactions in real-time, using Tax Identification Numbers (TINs) and National Identification Numbers (NINs). Per a report by TechCabal , the method will make it easy for tax authorities to track largely invisible crypto transactions without directly accessing the blockchain itself. By linking it to national IDs, crypto flows can be matched with income declarations and tax records, the report added. Linking National IDs to Crypto Transfers – Here’s Why The West African nation has mandated crypto exchanges and service providers to collect and report their clients’ TINs and NINs, expanding its identity tracing system to the crypto ecosystem. TIN is a unique identification number issued by the Nigerian Revenue Service and the Joint Tax Commission to track tax compliance and enforcement of individuals and businesses. Meanwhile, NIN links personal identification information to biometric data such as fingerprints and face-scanners in the national identity database. Nigeria has passed a new tax law linking crypto transactions to identities via Tax Identification Numbers (TIN) and National Identity Numbers (NIN), ensuring traceability for tax purposes without compromising blockchain security. VASP are required to collect user details… — Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) January 13, 2026 With the current tax law, authorities can track crypto flows from exchanges to individuals and reported income. This is done without building complex blockchain surveillance infrastructure, it noted. Nigeria’s financial regulator announced last year that it is considering a bill to include crypto taxation in its regulatory framework. Besides, Nigeria’s approach aligns with developments under the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF), an OECD initiative for global tax transparency. Nigeria Leads in Crypto Adoption Nigeria has become one of Africa’s top cryptocurrency adopters again, per Chainalysis’ 2025 Global Adoption Index . The nation’s crypto market is estimated to have gained $92.1 billion in value between July 2024 and June 2025. Furthermore, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has recently formed a new task force to explore the adoption of stablecoins. The move comes amid sluggish adoption of the country’s digital currency, the eNaira, and growing public skepticism toward its performance. The post Nigeria to Track Crypto Transactions Using National Identification Numbers and Tax Records appeared first on Cryptonews .

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Monero (XMR) Hits Fresh Records But Experts Warn Against FOMO Entries

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Monero (XMR) has been moving sharply higher and has managed to draw fresh attention from traders even as much of the wider crypto market continues to struggle for direction. Its new all-time high has been predictably met with high crowd FOMO. XMR Steals the Show Several privacy-focused cryptocurrencies have performed well over the past three months. Monero now appears to be leading the sector as other rivals slip into the background. According to Santiment, XMR’s rally has been strong. But the analytics firm said that investors looking for new entry points may want to wait until social hype and fear of missing out ease. The rally has since extended further, as XMR jumped nearly 20% in the last 24 hours to around $677, pushing its monthly gains above 62%. This is Monero’s highest price level in roughly eight years, after surpassing its previous peak from early 2018. Market participants say the move reflects a broader rotation into privacy-linked assets, which have shown strength since late last year. While Zcash (ZEC) dominated attention in the fourth quarter, interest has steadily shifted back toward XMR. However, experts also warn that trading in privacy coins remains concentrated on fewer offshore exchanges, as many regulated platforms avoid listing them, which could add volatility going forward. Vikrant Sharma, Founder and CEO of Cake Wallet, said the uptrend is driven by its core focus on financial privacy. In a statement to CryptoPotato , he explained that Monero stands apart because privacy is built in by default, something rare among crypto assets as governments expand surveillance. The exec went on to add, “As governments expand AML, KYC, and on-chain monitoring, Monero’s technology is being validated. Regulatory pressure and exchange delistings have reduced speculative access, but they’ve intensified conviction among users who genuinely need censorship-resistant money. The recent price action suggests markets are beginning to value privacy itself as a scarce and strategic financial property.” ZEC Sell-Off Its rival, Zcash, on the other hand, has taken a different turn. The privacy coin saw a sharp sell-off after all members of the Electric Coin Company resigned amid a dispute over governance. ECC CEO Josh Swihart said the decision followed after “constructive” discharge by the Bootstrap board. However, the move does not mean an exit from Zcash. Swihart said the developers are setting up a new company and will continue working within the Zcash ecosystem. Shortly after the resignations, the team announced plans to develop a new Zcash wallet, known internally as cashZ, which uses the same Zashi codebase. He said that the focus remains on the ZEC ecosystem, but has no plans to introduce a new token. The post Monero (XMR) Hits Fresh Records But Experts Warn Against FOMO Entries appeared first on CryptoPotato .

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Solana Policy Institute Urges SEC to Exclude DeFi Developers from Broker Regulations in Crucial Policy Shift

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BitcoinWorld Solana Policy Institute Urges SEC to Exclude DeFi Developers from Broker Regulations in Crucial Policy Shift WASHINGTON, D.C. – March 15, 2025 – The Solana Policy Institute has delivered a significant policy recommendation to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, urging the regulatory body to create clear distinctions between centralized cryptocurrency exchanges and non-custodial decentralized finance software developers. This formal request represents a pivotal moment in the ongoing regulatory debate surrounding blockchain technology and its participants. Solana Policy Institute Advocates for Regulatory Clarity The Solana Policy Institute, a non-profit organization dedicated to blockchain policy research and advocacy, has formally requested that the SEC distinguish between centralized cryptocurrency exchanges and non-custodial DeFi software. The institute argues that developers of decentralized protocols should not face regulation as financial intermediaries. This position stems from fundamental differences in how these systems operate and who controls user assets. Specifically, the institute has called for three concrete regulatory actions. First, they request that the SEC publish formal guidance separating non-custodial software tools from broker transactions. Second, they advocate for amending Rule 3b-16 to exclude open-source code from the definition of an exchange. Third, they propose adopting a custody and control-based framework to differentiate between intermediary and non-intermediary blockchain activities. Historical Context of SEC Regulation in Cryptocurrency The SEC’s approach to cryptocurrency regulation has evolved significantly since 2017. Initially, the commission focused primarily on initial coin offerings and securities classification. However, as decentralized finance gained prominence around 2020, regulatory attention shifted toward exchange platforms and intermediary definitions. The SEC’s 2023 enforcement actions against several centralized exchanges established precedent for applying existing securities laws to cryptocurrency trading platforms. Meanwhile, decentralized protocols presented unique challenges. These systems operate through smart contracts and automated market makers rather than traditional order books. Developers typically release open-source code without controlling the resulting networks. This fundamental difference forms the core of the Solana Policy Institute’s argument. They contend that regulating code developers as brokers would create inappropriate liability for creators of permissionless tools. Expert Perspectives on the Regulatory Debate Legal scholars specializing in blockchain technology have expressed varying opinions on this regulatory question. Professor Sarah Chen of Stanford Law School notes, “The distinction between custodial and non-custodial systems represents a crucial legal boundary. Traditional financial regulation centers on intermediaries who control customer assets, while DeFi protocols often eliminate this control relationship entirely.” Conversely, former SEC enforcement attorney Michael Rodriguez cautions, “While technical distinctions exist, the economic realities of these systems may still trigger regulatory concerns. The SEC must balance innovation protection with investor safeguards.” These competing perspectives highlight the complexity of applying decades-old securities laws to novel technological systems. Comparative Analysis: Centralized vs. Decentralized Systems The fundamental distinction between centralized exchanges and DeFi protocols centers on custody and control. Centralized platforms like Coinbase and Binance maintain custody of user assets, manage order books, and exercise control over transactions. They perform traditional intermediary functions familiar to financial regulators. Key Differences Between Exchange Types Feature Centralized Exchanges DeFi Protocols Asset Custody Platform holds user assets Users retain self-custody Control Mechanism Company-operated systems Smart contract automation Order Matching Centralized order books Automated market makers Governance Corporate management Often decentralized or community-based Developer Role Platform operators Code creators without ongoing control DeFi protocols operate differently. Users interact directly with smart contracts using self-custodied wallets. No single entity controls the protocol after deployment. Developers create open-source software that others may use, modify, or deploy independently. This architectural difference forms the basis for the Solana Policy Institute’s regulatory argument. Potential Impacts on Innovation and Compliance The SEC’s decision on this matter could significantly affect blockchain innovation in the United States. Regulatory clarity might encourage continued development of decentralized technologies. However, imposing broker regulations on developers could potentially stifle innovation. Many developers might relocate to jurisdictions with clearer regulatory frameworks. Several potential outcomes exist for the blockchain industry: Innovation acceleration: Clear exemptions could spur new DeFi development Compliance challenges: Developers might struggle with broker requirements Jurisdictional competition: Projects may migrate to clearer regulatory environments Industry fragmentation: Different approaches across jurisdictions could emerge These potential impacts extend beyond developers to users and investors. Regulatory clarity typically benefits all market participants by establishing predictable rules. Uncertainty, conversely, creates compliance risks and may limit participation. The Technical Reality of Non-Custodial Systems From a technical perspective, non-custodial DeFi protocols operate through immutable smart contracts deployed on public blockchains. Once deployed, developers cannot typically modify or control these contracts. Users interact directly with the code using their private keys. This technical reality challenges traditional regulatory concepts centered on intermediary control. The Solana Policy Institute emphasizes this technical distinction in their proposal. They argue that regulating developers as brokers would misunderstand how these systems actually function. Instead, they propose focusing regulatory attention on entities that exercise actual custody or control over user assets. Broader Regulatory Trends in Global Jurisdictions Other jurisdictions have approached DeFi regulation with varying strategies. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation includes specific provisions for decentralized systems. Singapore’s Monetary Authority has issued guidance distinguishing between different types of digital asset services. Japan’s Financial Services Agency has taken a more cautious approach, applying existing financial regulations broadly. These international approaches provide context for the SEC’s decision-making process. Regulatory harmonization remains challenging due to differing legal traditions and policy priorities. However, common themes emerge across jurisdictions, particularly regarding the importance of distinguishing between different types of cryptocurrency activities. Conclusion The Solana Policy Institute’s request to the SEC represents a crucial development in cryptocurrency regulation. Their call to exclude DeFi developers from broker regulations highlights fundamental differences between centralized and decentralized systems. The SEC’s response will significantly impact blockchain innovation and regulatory clarity. As the debate continues, the distinction between custodial intermediaries and non-custodial software remains central to appropriate regulatory frameworks for evolving financial technologies. FAQs Q1: What is the Solana Policy Institute? The Solana Policy Institute is a non-profit organization focused on blockchain policy research and advocacy. It aims to promote sensible regulatory frameworks for blockchain technology through research, education, and policy engagement. Q2: Why does the institute want DeFi developers excluded from broker regulations? The institute argues that DeFi developers create non-custodial software tools rather than operating as financial intermediaries. Since developers don’t control user assets or transactions after deployment, applying broker regulations would be inappropriate and could stifle innovation. Q3: What specific changes is the institute requesting from the SEC? They request three main actions: publishing guidance separating non-custodial software from broker transactions, amending Rule 3b-16 to exclude open-source code from exchange definitions, and adopting a custody and control-based framework for distinguishing blockchain activities. Q4: How do centralized exchanges differ from DeFi protocols? Centralized exchanges custody user assets and control transactions through company-operated systems. DeFi protocols enable direct user interaction with smart contracts using self-custodied wallets, with no single entity controlling the system after deployment. Q5: What could happen if the SEC rejects this proposal? If the SEC applies broker regulations to DeFi developers, it could create significant compliance challenges, potentially driving innovation overseas and limiting DeFi development in the United States while creating regulatory uncertainty for existing projects. This post Solana Policy Institute Urges SEC to Exclude DeFi Developers from Broker Regulations in Crucial Policy Shift first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

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Court stops Tennessee crackdown on Kalshi

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A federal judge in Tennessee has temporarily blocked state regulators from enforcing a cease-and-desist order against the prediction markets platform Kalshi. In the order issued Monday by US District Judge Aleta Trauger, Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction and temporary restraining order has been granted while the case proceeds. The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council and the state attorney general tried taking enforcement action against the company when it sent cease and desist letters last Friday, as Cryptopolitan reported . According to the SWC, Kalshi’s sports-related event contracts constitute illegal gambling under state law or fall under federal commodities regulation. However, the prediction platform insists its products are federally regulated and therefore outside state jurisdiction. SWC and Tennessee AG try to halt prediction markets services In the letters Tennessee Sports Wagering Council sent to Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket, the state accused the platforms of issuing sports wagering products in the state without the required licenses. The regulators ordered the companies to immediately stop accepting customers in Tennessee, while also directing the firms to void any outstanding contracts and issue full refunds to all users in the state by January 31 or face civil penalties of up to $25,000 per violation. Kalshi moved to federal court to fight the order at the start of the week, propounding that the state was overstepping its authority. Judge Trauger sided with the company’s request for temporary relief by concluding it met the parameters for a preliminary injunction at this stage of the litigation. NEW: Kalshi has sued the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council in federal court (Middle District of Tennessee) in response to the agency's cease-and-desist letter over sports event contracts and also filed a motion for preliminary injunction with an emergency hearing requested. pic.twitter.com/zYogRPePah — Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) January 12, 2026 The judge wrote that Kalshi “will suffer irreparable injury and loss” if Tennessee is allowed to enforce the cease-and-desist order before the court resolves the dispute. She went on to say that the company “is likely to succeed on the merits of its claims and its rights will likely be violated” absent judicial intervention. Kalshi tried to avert enforcement completely According to court filings seen by Cryptopolitan, Kalshi had attempted to head off the enforcement action before the cease-and-desist letters were issued. In the weeks leading up to the order, a representative for the company contacted Tennessee officials to discuss the matter. The outreach included communications with Lacey Mase, the state’s Chief Deputy Attorney General, who was supposedly asked if the attorney general’s office would be open to a call with the company’s national counsel. “Kalshi has had productive discussions with authorities in a number of other states, several of which have opted to take a wait-and-see approach as the current litigation plays out,” the prediction market service provider’s representative told reporters. In a Sunday email response, the attorney general’s office told Kalshi, “We will not be staying enforcement pursuant to your request.” Days later, the cease-and-desist letters were issued. This is the sixth time Kalshi has sued a state in federal court, as it has also filed lawsuits against regulators in Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland, New York, and Connecticut. A federal judge in Maryland denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction last August, saying it failed to clearly show how federal law overrides Maryland’s gambling statutes. Maryland regulators proceeded with enforcement actions against Kalshi and similar platforms after the court’s decision. Kalshi has fared better in New Jersey, where a federal district judge ruled that the company’s event contracts fall under the Commodity Exchange Act back in April. The judge found that regulation rests with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, not state gaming authorities, although New Jersey appealed that decision through the US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit. Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free .

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Upbit Temporarily Suspends SEI Deposits and Withdrawals: Essential Maintenance Update for Traders

  vor 4 Tagen

BitcoinWorld Upbit Temporarily Suspends SEI Deposits and Withdrawals: Essential Maintenance Update for Traders In a move highlighting the ongoing technical evolution of digital asset platforms, the prominent South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Upbit announced on March 21, 2025, the temporary suspension of all deposit and withdrawal services for the Sei (SEI) token. This proactive measure, attributed to necessary wallet system maintenance, underscores the exchange’s commitment to operational security and network integrity for its users. Understanding the Upbit SEI Suspension Announcement Upbit, one of South Korea’s largest and most regulated digital asset exchanges, issued a formal notice to its user base. The announcement clearly stated the temporary halt of SEI transaction functionalities. Consequently, users cannot deposit new SEI tokens from external wallets into their Upbit accounts during this period. Similarly, they cannot withdraw SEI holdings from Upbit to personal or other exchange wallets. Importantly, the suspension affects only deposit and withdrawal channels. Trading of SEI against other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) or Tether (USDT) on Upbit’s spot markets continues without interruption, allowing for price discovery and portfolio adjustments. The Critical Role of Wallet Maintenance Wallet system maintenance is a standard, yet critical, operational procedure for cryptocurrency exchanges. Think of it as a scheduled upgrade for a highly secure digital banking system. These maintenance windows allow exchange engineers to implement vital updates, which can include: Security Enhancements: Patching potential vulnerabilities and integrating advanced security protocols to protect user funds. Network Upgrades: Aligning the exchange’s wallet infrastructure with the latest upgrades or hard forks on the underlying Sei blockchain. Performance Optimization: Improving transaction processing speed, reliability, and overall system stability to handle higher volumes. Feature Integration: Preparing systems for new functionalities, such as staking services or compatibility with new token standards. Exchanges like Upbit typically schedule these events during periods of lower market volatility to minimize user disruption. They also provide advance notice whenever possible, though urgent security patches may require immediate action. Background on the Sei Network and SEI Token To fully grasp the context of this suspension, one must understand the Sei blockchain. Launched in 2023, Sei is a layer-1 blockchain specifically designed for decentralized exchange (DEX) trading. It positions itself as “the fastest blockchain for trading,” utilizing a unique consensus mechanism called Twin-Turbo Consensus to achieve remarkable transaction finality speeds. The native SEI token serves several core functions within this ecosystem: Function Description Network Security Used for staking and securing the blockchain through its proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus. Transaction Fees Pays for gas fees required to execute transactions and deploy smart contracts. Governance Allows holders to vote on future proposals and upgrades to the Sei protocol. Native Liquidity Acts as a base trading pair and collateral asset within the Sei DeFi ecosystem. Sei’s focus on trading has garnered significant attention, leading to listings on major global exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, and, notably, Upbit. Its presence on Upbit provides South Korean traders with direct access, contributing to its liquidity and price discovery in a key Asian market. Historical Precedents and Market Impact Temporary suspensions of deposits and withdrawals are not uncommon in the cryptocurrency industry. Major exchanges, including Binance, Kraken, and Coinbase, routinely enact similar pauses for network upgrades or security reviews. For instance, in 2024, multiple exchanges halted Ethereum (ETH) transactions during the highly anticipated “Dencun” network upgrade to ensure a smooth transition. The market impact of such announcements varies. Typically, a well-communicated maintenance notice for technical reasons causes minimal price movement. However, if a suspension is sudden, unexplained, or prolonged, it can trigger investor anxiety and increased selling pressure due to concerns over fund accessibility. Following Upbit’s SEI announcement, initial market reaction appeared muted. Data from CoinMarketCap showed SEI’s price experienced only minor fluctuations within its typical 24-hour trading range. This stability suggests the market interpreted the news as a routine operational procedure rather than a fundamental issue. Analysts often view transparent, scheduled maintenance as a sign of a mature and responsible exchange prioritizing long-term system health over short-term convenience. What Upbit Users and SEI Holders Should Do For traders and investors directly affected by this update, a clear and calm approach is advisable. First, users should monitor official Upbit communication channels, such as its website announcement page and verified social media accounts, for the official resumption notice. Second, while deposits and withdrawals are paused, trading of SEI within the exchange remains active. Users can still buy, sell, or convert SEI to other assets if desired. Third, this is an opportune moment to review general security practices, such as ensuring two-factor authentication (2FA) is enabled on exchange accounts and that private keys for external wallets are securely stored. Finally, holders should consider the broader context: these maintenance periods are integral to the infrastructure supporting the digital asset class, ultimately aiming to create a more secure and efficient trading environment for everyone. Conclusion The temporary suspension of SEI deposits and withdrawals by Upbit represents a standard, precautionary step in the complex backend management of a cryptocurrency exchange. This action, driven by essential wallet system maintenance, highlights the ongoing technical diligence required to secure user assets and maintain robust platform infrastructure. For the Sei network, continued support from a top-tier exchange like Upbit reinforces its market position and accessibility. As the digital asset industry matures, such transparent operational protocols will become increasingly normalized, reflecting a focus on security and reliability that benefits the entire ecosystem. FAQs Q1: Can I still trade SEI on Upbit during the suspension? A1: Yes. The suspension applies only to depositing SEI into your Upbit account from an external source and withdrawing SEI from Upbit to an external wallet. All spot trading pairs for SEI (e.g., SEI/KRW, SEI/BTC) remain fully active on the exchange. Q2: How long will the SEI deposit and withdrawal suspension last? A2: Upbit’s announcement did not specify a precise duration, labeling it as “temporary.” Such maintenance windows can last from a few hours to a couple of days. Users must check Upbit’s official announcement page for the specific update confirming service restoration. Q3: Does this suspension indicate a problem with the Sei blockchain itself? A3: Not necessarily. The maintenance is specific to Upbit’s internal wallet systems for handling SEI tokens. The Sei network continues to operate normally for all other users and exchanges. This is typically an exchange-side infrastructure update. Q4: Are my SEI funds safe on Upbit during this time? A4: According to standard exchange procedures, funds held in user accounts remain secure. The maintenance period is often used to enhance security. Upbit, as a regulated South Korean exchange, employs stringent security measures, including cold storage for the majority of user assets. Q5: What should I do if I need to move my SEI tokens urgently? A5: If your SEI is already on another exchange or in a self-custody wallet, you can use those alternative platforms. If your SEI is currently on Upbit, you must wait for withdrawal services to resume. As a workaround, you could trade your SEI for another cryptocurrency on Upbit that does not have suspended withdrawals, withdraw that asset, and then convert it back to SEI on a different platform, though this involves trading fees and price risk. This post Upbit Temporarily Suspends SEI Deposits and Withdrawals: Essential Maintenance Update for Traders first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

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Bitcoin Hits Lowest Stock-to-Flow Band Ever as Whales Sell and Support Holds

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Bitcoin is drawing attention in early 2026 as long term valuation metrics, onchain data, and technical levels converge near critical zones. Charts tracking scarcity, whale behavior, and price structure now frame the market around areas that rarely align at the same time. Bitcoin Hits Lowest Stock to Flow Rainbow Band on Record Bitcoin has dropped to its lowest level ever on the Stock to Flow Rainbow Chart, according to data shared by analyst James Easton. The chart, created by Bitbo, shows Bitcoin’s price now sitting near the bottom green and blue bands, which historically marked long term low valuation zones. Stock to Flow Rainbow Chart. Source: JamesEastonUK (X) The Stock to Flow Rainbow Chart maps Bitcoin’s price against its scarcity cycle, using colored bands to show relative positioning over time. As of early 2026, Bitcoin trades near the lower boundary of the model, a level not previously reached in earlier market cycles. The chart also aligns this move with the post 2024 halving period, highlighted by the vertical dotted line. Past cycles on the chart show Bitcoin entering higher bands after extended periods near the lower range. While the model does not predict timing, it places current price action at an extreme relative to historical patterns. Easton described the reading as bullish, pointing to the rarity of Bitcoin reaching this zone at any point since trading began. The chart spans data from 2011 through projections into the late 2020s and includes multiple halving events. Despite price volatility across cycles, Bitcoin has generally moved upward through the bands over time. The latest position stands out as the deepest interaction with the lowest bands recorded on the model so far. Bitcoin Whale Holdings Post Sharp Year Over Year Decline Meanwhile, Bitcoin whale holdings have shifted lower over the past year, according to data shared by CryptoBusy, showing a sharp drop among large wallets. Addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC reduced their combined balances by about 220,000 BTC year over year, marking the fastest contraction since early 2023. Bitcoin Whale Holdings 1 Year Change. Source: CryptoQuant Research and CryptoBusy (X) The chart, based on CryptoQuant data, tracks one year changes in whale holdings while excluding exchanges and mining pools. It shows the current drawdown following a period of accumulation in 2023 and early 2024, when whale balances rose by more than 400,000 BTC. The latest rollover places holdings firmly in negative territory as Bitcoin trades near recent cycle highs. Similar patterns appeared in earlier market phases. In 2021 and 2022, whale balances turned sharply negative ahead of major price peaks, with the chart highlighting a much deeper decline of more than 800,000 BTC during that period. The comparison has drawn attention to the pace of the current distribution rather than its absolute size. Despite the pullback, the data also shows that previous accumulation phases lasted several months before reversing. As a result, the latest shift reflects a change in behavior among large holders rather than a short term fluctuation, based on the one year view shown in the chart. Bitcoin Holds Weekly Support as Traders Watch CME Gap Retest Bitcoin is holding above a key weekly support zone while traders focus on a possible short term pullback toward lower levels, according to analysis shared by trader Learnernoearner. The TradingView chart shows BTC trading above the green support box, with weekly structure remaining intact despite weaker signals on the monthly timeframe. Bitcoin Weekly Support and CME Gap Levels Chart. Source: Learnernoearner (X) The analysis points to a bullish MACD forming on the weekly chart, while the monthly setup shows limited momentum, suggesting recent strength may reflect a short term rebound rather than a sustained trend shift. As a result, price action remains range bound rather than directional at this stage. The trader expects Bitcoin to retest the 89,500 to 87,200 zone, which overlaps with a previously unfilled CME gap between 88,700 and 88,100 from two weeks ago. The chart highlights this area as a likely near term downside target if price revisits support. Such gap fills have occurred frequently in past trading periods. If Bitcoin holds the green support area after the retest, the setup points to a rebound toward the 98,000 level. However, the structure would break if price drops below 86,200, which the trader flagged as the invalidation level for this scenario.

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Bitcoin could crash to $38,000 in October 2026, warns top crypto analyst

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The early 2026 cryptocurrency market has been marked by a fierce corrida between Bitcoin ( BTC ) bulls and bears, with the former anticipating BTC is set for another rally, and the latter estimating traders are facing the opening stages of another ‘crypto winter.’ Popular on-chain expert, Ali Martinez, is more on the bearish side as he, in a January 12 X post, revealed that Bitcoin will hit this cycle’s bottom in about 267 days – sometime in October 2026: 267 days remain until Bitcoin $BTC is projected to reach a cycle bottom, likely between $38,000 and $50,000. 267 days remain until Bitcoin $BTC is projected to reach a cycle bottom, likely between $38,000 and $50,000. https://t.co/C66sa3gcd4 pic.twitter.com/1gUXpaY47C — Ali Charts (@alicharts) January 12, 2026 Why Bitcoin will crash to the 2026 market bottom in October An earlier post made by the analyst also reveals the core logic behind the prediction: BTC usually takes about 1,064 days to move from the market bottom to the top, and another 364 days for the journey back. To back the claim, Martinez reached for the exact same cadence observable across three cycles between the January 2015 bottom and the October 2025 top. Furthermore, considering the most recent Bitcoin all-time high came on October 6, 2025, and that the return journey tends to take 364 days, it is possible to deduce the next bottom will come on October 5, 2026. Bitcoin’s 2026 lowest price revealed Within the same post – originally published as an X article on December 21, 2025 – Ali Martinez revealed $37,500 as a likely BTC low for the ongoing cycle. The cryptocurrency analyst explained that the bear market between 2017 and 2018 featured an 84% correction from the top, and the 2021 to 2022 bear market, a 77% pullback. Thus, the mid-point comes in at 80%, meaning the retracement from the latest high just above $126,000 could target $37,500. BTC 5-year price chart. Source: Google Still, Martinez left some room open as he set his forecast within the range between $38,000 and $50,000 in the January 12 X post, signaling an expectation that the 2026 correction will be slightly milder than historical ‘winters.’ Featured image via Shutterstock The post Bitcoin could crash to $38,000 in October 2026, warns top crypto analyst appeared first on Finbold .

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