The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric showed a capitulation phase underway for the memecoin.
It was another year of high-conviction bets — and fast reversals.
Hyperliquid generated $844 million in revenue in 2025, achieved $2.95 trillion in total trading volume, and added over 600,000 new users. Perpetual contracts dominated fees at $848.33 million, with Bitcoin leading trading at $1.16 trillion. Hyperliquid 2025 revenue hit $844 million from $2.95T trading volume. Averaged $8.34 billion daily volume with 561.7 million transactions per [...]
Market expectations for U.S. monetary policy shifted modestly ahead of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, according to CME FedWatch data. Futures pricing showed a 17.7% probability of a rate cut to the 325–350 basis point range, while traders still assigned an 82.3% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 350–375 basis points. No probability priced in a rate hike. Fed Rate Cut Probabilities. Source: CME FedWatch The change reflects repositioning in Fed funds futures rather than a policy signal from the central bank. FedWatch probabilities are derived directly from futures contracts, which react quickly to incoming macro data, market volatility, and shifts in risk appetite. As a result, small changes in pricing can produce visible swings in implied probabilities. Although the base case remains no change, the presence of a measurable cut probability highlights growing debate over the Fed’s next move. Traders continue to weigh cooling inflation trends against still-resilient labor market data, keeping expectations fluid into early 2026. Futures Pricing Shows Market Caution The January contract tied to the meeting, ZQF6, showed a mid-price of 96.3650, with notable trading activity and open interest remaining elevated. That positioning suggests markets remain sensitive to any data that could tilt expectations further toward easing or reinforce the hold narrative. Historically, the Fed has been cautious at turning points. In prior cycles, policymakers often waited for sustained confirmation from inflation and employment before initiating cuts. This pattern has kept traders reluctant to fully price aggressive easing, even as growth indicators soften. As a result, the January meeting appears framed as a checkpoint rather than a pivot. Futures markets currently signal limited conviction either way, with traders keeping optionality rather than betting heavily on a single outcome. Crypto Markets React to Policy Signals Digital asset markets showed a measured response as FedWatch probabilities updated. Bitcoin and Ether traded slightly higher during the session, reflecting sensitivity to rate expectations but without sharp follow-through. The muted move suggested traders treated the probability shift as incremental rather than decisive. Crypto assets have often responded to changes in rate expectations, as lower policy rates can ease financial conditions and support risk assets. However, with no clear policy change priced as the dominant outcome, reactions remained contained. Past cycles show that clearer momentum in crypto typically follows decisive moves in rate pricing rather than marginal probability changes. Until futures markets show stronger conviction, digital assets may continue to track broader macro signals without a sustained directional move.
Bloomberg's McGlone believes that Bitcoin could potentially lose 90% of its peak value to hit that $10,000 target.
Ethereum keeps grinding sideways, with weekly support holding but no clear breakout yet. Analysts say the next move likely depends on how ETH reacts at the major zones into 2026. Ethereum Weekly Chart Flags 2026 Decision Zone After Support Holds Ethereum traded near $2,947 on the weekly ETHUSD chart as a market update from More Crypto Online said price still sits close to a larger structural support zone. The analyst said an upside response remains possible from this area, while warning that the market could still print one more low early next year before choosing a clearer direction. Ethereum Weekly Elliott Wave Zones. Source: TradingView, More Crypto Online The chart highlights a support band around $2,618, $2,252, and $1,818, levels shown as key Fibonacci references on the weekly structure. In the same view, Ethereum also sits below a nearby resistance cluster marked around $3,348 to $4,619, which frames the first major area price would need to reclaim to shift the broader setup. Looking into 2026, the More Crypto Online post said the most important reference remains the resistance zone above, because the market’s reaction there would decide which larger scenario takes control. The analyst said both primary scenarios remain structurally valid for now, and the chart does not yet confirm that Ethereum has made its final decision. The update added that probabilities will shift only when price action confirms behavior at the major zones. Instead of calling a direction today, the analyst said the current structure mainly defines conditions that could guide the next move as the market approaches 2026. Source: More Crypto Online on X, TradingView chart screenshot. Ethereum Holds Range as 2026 Nears, Ted Pillows Says Ethereum stayed range bound on the daily ETH/USDT chart after failing to reclaim higher resistance bands marked on the setup shared by Ted Pillows. The post said ETH “has gone almost nowhere since yesterday,” while price hovered around the $2,940 area on Binance. Ethereum Range Zones on ETH USDT Daily Chart. Source: Ted Pillows The chart shows multiple overhead supply zones, with the nearest resistance bands drawn around the low $3,000s and another higher band near the mid $3,000s. At the same time, the lower green support zone sits below current price, stretching toward the high $2,000s and lower, which frames the downside area traders often watch if the range breaks. Ted Pillows said Ethereum remains “stuck in a range” and suggested major volatility may not arrive until 2026 begins. The same chart maps several potential paths, including a push into resistance, a pullback to support, or continued sideways movement, while price remains trapped between the marked zones.
The Flow network rollback, proposed after a December 26 exploit, draws sharp criticism from deBridge co-founder Alex Smirnov, who warns it risks greater financial harm to honest users, bridges, and partners than the original attack by creating doubled balances and reimbursement issues without impacting the attacker, who already bridged out $4 million. Smirnov claims no [...]
Robinhood distributed $750,000 in Bitcoin during a holiday promotion as BTC traded in a tight daily range. Meanwhile, chart analysts flagged early signs of stabilization after a prolonged pullback. Robinhood Distributes $750,000 in Bitcoin Through Holiday Promotion Robinhood distributed a total of $750,000 worth of Bitcoin to eligible users as part of a limited holiday promotion, according to details shared by the company. The giveaway took place during “HOOD Holidays” Day 2 and formed one part of a multi-day rewards campaign. Under the promotion’s structure, users who did not receive top prizes instead shared a fixed Bitcoin pool worth $750,000. The platform split the amount on a pro-rata basis among qualifying participants rather than issuing equal payouts to all users. As a result, individual Bitcoin rewards varied depending on participation and eligibility. Meanwhile, the campaign also included separate prize tiers unrelated to the Bitcoin pool. These featured non-crypto rewards such as travel packages and physical prizes, which Robinhood awarded independently from the Bitcoin distribution. The company positioned the promotion as a seasonal engagement effort rather than a permanent rewards program. At the same time, Robinhood did not disclose how many users qualified for the Bitcoin pool or the average payout per participant. However, the structure confirms that the $750,000 figure refers to the total Bitcoin allocated for the shared distribution, not a direct grant to each user. The promotion comes as U.S.-based trading platforms continue to use short-term incentives to drive user activity, especially around year-end periods marked by lower trading volumes and heightened competition among retail brokerages. Bitcoin Chart Signals Draw Attention as Analysts Point to Potential Base Meanwhile, Bitcoin traded in a narrow range on the daily chart as technical analysts highlighted a possible base forming after weeks of downside pressure. A chart shared by market commentator Gem Detecter showed BTC/USDT consolidating inside a tightening structure, following a broader downtrend marked by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Bitcoin TetherUS Daily Chart. Source: X The chart outlines a compressed price range where selling momentum has slowed, with candles clustering near recent lows. According to the analysis, this type of structure often appears after extended declines, when volatility contracts and price action stabilizes. The setup followed several failed rebound attempts earlier in the quarter, each capped by descending resistance. At the same time, the analyst described the pattern as a “clear bottom signal,” while framing the view as a longer term outlook rather than a near term move. In a social media post, Gem Detecter said 2026 could mark a strong year for Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market, linking that view to the current technical structure. Market data shows Bitcoin remained well below its previous highs, reflecting caution across spot and derivatives markets. While some traders view the consolidation as early base building, others continue to watch for confirmation through volume expansion or a decisive break from the current range. For now, price action remains contained, with the chart reflecting consolidation rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
U.S. lawmakers moved digital asset policy into a new phase in 2025, passing a set of crypto bills that signaled long-term regulatory commitment. Congress framed the effort as a shift from enforcement-first actions toward clear federal rules. The push focused on stablecoins, market structure, and limits on a potential U.S. central bank digital currency. The effort unfolded during a coordinated legislative push often described by lawmakers as “Crypto Week.” House leaders advanced multiple bills in parallel, while the Senate prioritized stablecoin legislation. By mid-year, the White House signed the first major crypto law, locking in a federal framework that had stalled for years. Together, the bills marked the clearest signal yet that Washington plans to keep crypto activity onshore. Lawmakers from both parties said the goal was legal certainty, not promotion, as digital assets continue to intersect with payments, banking, and capital markets. Stablecoin Law Sets Federal Baseline The centerpiece of the 2025 shift was the passage of a stablecoin bill that created national standards for payment tokens. The law requires issuers to hold high-quality liquid reserves and provide regular disclosures. It also outlines who can issue stablecoins and under what conditions. Supporters said the measure reduces risks exposed by earlier market failures. At the same time, it gives banks and regulated firms a clear path to participate. Regulators now oversee stablecoin activity through defined supervisory processes rather than ad-hoc guidance. Since the bill became law, agencies have begun outlining how institutions can apply to issue or manage stablecoins. That early follow-through has reinforced the view that Congress expects regulators to implement, not reinterpret, the statute. Market Structure and CBDC Limits Advance Alongside the stablecoin law, the House advanced a broader market structure bill designed to clarify how digital assets are classified and supervised. The proposal aims to define when tokens fall under commodities rules and how trading platforms should register and operate. Lawmakers also passed legislation restricting the Federal Reserve from issuing a retail central bank digital currency without direct congressional approval. Sponsors framed the move as a privacy safeguard rather than a rejection of digital payments. While parts of the market structure agenda may extend into 2026, the 2025 votes changed expectations. Instead of asking whether Congress will act on crypto, the focus has shifted to how quickly agencies implement the new framework and how remaining gaps will be addressed.
Ethereum's price hasn't matched increased Blockchain usage and institutional interest. Experts predict a tenfold increase in Total Value Locked by 2026. Continue Reading: Ethereum Gears Up for a Monumental Leap in 2026 The post Ethereum Gears Up for a Monumental Leap in 2026 appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .