Tether Freezes $3.4B in USDT: A Stunning Shift in Global Crypto Compliance

  vor 9 Monaten

BitcoinWorld Tether Freezes $3.4B in USDT: A Stunning Shift in Global Crypto Compliance In a landmark demonstration of evolving cryptocurrency oversight, Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, has frozen a staggering $3.4 billion in USDT. This decisive action, coordinated with authorities across 62 nations, signals a profound transformation in how digital assets are policed on the global stage. The scale of this operation, particularly a recent $500 million freeze for Turkish authorities, underscores a new era of proactive compliance within the blockchain ecosystem. Tether USDT Freeze: Unpacking the $3.4 Billion Operation Tether’s announcement reveals unprecedented cooperation with global law enforcement. The company has assisted in over 1,800 investigations. Consequently, this effort directly targeted USDT tokens linked to alleged criminal activities. The frozen assets represent a significant portion of illicit finance interdiction in crypto. For context, this sum exceeds the annual budget of some national law enforcement agencies. The process involves Tether using its centralized control over the USDT token to blacklist specific wallet addresses. Once blacklisted, those addresses cannot move or access the frozen funds. This mechanism is a powerful tool for authorities. Furthermore, the geographic scope is vast. Cooperation with 62 countries indicates a nearly universal investigative network. This network includes major financial hubs and developing nations alike. The collaboration often starts with a formal request from a national agency. Tether’s compliance team then reviews the legal validity of the request. Upon verification, they execute the freeze on the blockchain. This entire process highlights the dual nature of stablecoins: decentralized in use but centralized in control. The Driving Forces Behind Global Stablecoin Regulation This massive freeze did not occur in a vacuum. It results from intense regulatory pressure and a strategic pivot by Tether itself. For years, regulators criticized stablecoin issuers for facilitating opaque transactions. In response, Tether has invested heavily in compliance technology and personnel. The company now employs blockchain analytics firms like Chainalysis. These tools help trace the flow of funds across public ledgers. Simultaneously, international bodies like the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) have tightened rules. Their “Travel Rule” now often applies to virtual asset service providers. Moreover, the rise of real-world asset tokenization demands clearer rules. As traditional finance merges with blockchain, the need for secure rails becomes paramount. Stablecoins like USDT act as critical bridges between fiat and crypto economies. Therefore, their integrity is essential for broader financial stability. Law enforcement agencies have also developed sophisticated crypto-tracing units. These units now routinely request freezes and seizures from compliant issuers. The following table contrasts the scale of recent crypto-related enforcement actions: Entity/Action Estimated Value Year Primary Jurisdiction Tether USDT Freeze $3.4 Billion 2023-2025 Global (62 countries) FTX Asset Recovery ~$7 Billion 2022-2024 USA, Bahamas Binance Settlement $4.3 Billion 2023 USA OneCoin Fraud Seizure $400 Million 2019 Multiple EU States Expert Analysis: A New Compliance Paradigm Financial compliance experts view this as a watershed moment. “This level of cooperation was unthinkable five years ago,” notes a former SEC enforcement attorney. “Tether’s actions demonstrate that centralized stablecoin issuers can serve as powerful choke points for illicit finance.” The strategic shift is also a business imperative. To maintain banking relationships and serve institutional clients, robust compliance is non-negotiable. This proactive stance may preempt more draconian legislation. By voluntarily working with global agencies, Tether shapes the narrative around its role. Additionally, this affects the entire cryptocurrency market. Major exchanges now integrate these blacklists into their own systems. They automatically block deposits from frozen addresses. This creates a layered defense against the movement of illicit funds. The technology behind these freezes is also evolving. New solutions allow for more granular control, like freezing only specific transactions. This precision reduces collateral damage to legitimate users. The trend is clear: the age of the “wild west” in crypto is giving way to a regulated frontier. Implications for Investors and the Crypto Ecosystem The direct impact on legitimate USDT holders is minimal but noteworthy. The freeze functionality proves Tether can control its token. This reinforces its centralized nature, a fact often debated in crypto circles. For investors, this action could be seen as a positive. It reduces systemic risk by removing illicit activity from the ecosystem. A cleaner ecosystem attracts more institutional capital. However, it also highlights a key vulnerability. Centralized control means a single point of failure, albeit one used for law enforcement. Furthermore, this sets a precedent for other stablecoin issuers. Companies like Circle (USDC) and Paxos (BUSD) have similar compliance protocols. We can expect them to publicize their cooperation figures as well. This creates a competitive landscape for “the most compliant” stablecoin. The market may begin to price in compliance as a feature. Exchanges and DeFi protocols will likely prefer listing stablecoins with strong track records. This could marginalize smaller, less compliant issuers. Enhanced Legitimacy: Large-scale freezes counter the narrative that crypto is primarily for crime. Regulatory Trust: Demonstrates the industry’s ability to self-police under a regulatory framework. Market Stability: Removing large sums linked to crime reduces potential market manipulation. User Assurance: Provides confidence that the ecosystem is actively patrolled and made safer. Conclusion The decision by Tether to freeze $3.4 billion in USDT marks a pivotal chapter in cryptocurrency history. This action, spanning 62 countries, transcends a simple law enforcement operation. It represents the maturation of the digital asset industry and its integration into the global financial compliance architecture. While debates about decentralization will continue, the practical reality is clear: major blockchain-based payment systems now actively partner with traditional authorities. This cooperation, exemplified by the recent $500 million freeze for Turkey, enhances the legitimacy and long-term viability of stablecoins like USDT. The path forward is one of balanced innovation and unwavering security. FAQs Q1: How does Tether physically “freeze” USDT tokens? Tether, as the centralized issuer, maintains a blacklist of wallet addresses on its treasury platform. When an address is blacklisted, the smart contract governing USDT prevents any tokens held by that address from being moved or spent, effectively freezing them in place. Q2: Can frozen USDT ever be unfrozen or returned? Yes, if a legal proceeding determines the funds are not illicit or if an error occurred, Tether can remove an address from the blacklist upon receiving appropriate court orders or authorization from the requesting agency, though this process is complex and rare. Q3: Does this mean USDT is not a decentralized cryptocurrency? Correct. USDT is a centralized stablecoin. While it operates on decentralized blockchain networks (like Ethereum or Tron), its issuance, redemption, and the freeze function are controlled solely by the company Tether, making it a centralized digital asset. Q4: What happens to the value of the frozen USDT? The frozen USDT remains on the blockchain but is rendered unusable. It does not get burned or removed from the total supply on paper, but it is effectively taken out of circulation, which can have a slight, indirect effect on market liquidity. Q5: How does this affect the average person holding USDT? For the vast majority of users holding USDT on reputable exchanges for legitimate purposes, there is no direct effect. The freezes target specific wallets linked to crime. The broader effect is potentially positive, increasing overall trust in the stability and legality of the USDT ecosystem. This post Tether Freezes $3.4B in USDT: A Stunning Shift in Global Crypto Compliance first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

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XRP Proponent Shares One Explanation for the Recent Flash Crash

  vor 9 Monaten

Sudden price collapses in cryptocurrency markets rarely occur without leaving confusion in their wake. Traders often confront a swirl of theories before verifiable facts emerge, especially when volatility strikes the world’s largest digital asset. The latest Bitcoin flash crash followed that familiar pattern, triggering intense speculation across global trading communities searching for a clear cause behind the abrupt move. EasyA co-founder and XRP advocate Dom Kwok quickly entered the conversation, sharing a circulating explanation tied to South Korea’s Bithumb exchange. His remarks amplified an already fast-moving debate and drew renewed attention to how operational events inside a single exchange can ripple through broader market sentiment within minutes. The Documented Exchange Error Multiple verified reports confirm that Bithumb mistakenly distributed massive amounts of Bitcoin to users during what should have been a small promotional payout denominated in Korean won. one explanation for the flash crash yesterday. an employee at bithumb (korean crypto exchange) accidentally sent 2,000 $BTC to its users instead of 2000 KRW (korean won). as soon as its users received the bitcoin, they immediately started selling, crashing the price of… pic.twitter.com/2nB5Q2BhNp — Dom Kwok | EasyA (@dom_kwok) February 6, 2026 Recipients rapidly sold portions of the unexpected holdings, which briefly pushed Bitcoin’s price sharply lower on the platform before stabilization returned. Authorities and the exchange later moved to halt activity, recover funds, and contain the disruption. Investigations indicate that the vast majority of the mistakenly transferred Bitcoin was successfully retrieved, while officials found no evidence of hacking or an external breach. Regulators nonetheless began reviewing the incident because the scale of the operational failure exposed weaknesses in exchange-level safeguards and risk controls. These confirmed facts align with the “innocent mistake” interpretation referenced in Kwok’s commentary, demonstrating how human or technical error alone can generate sudden sell pressure and localized price dislocation. We are on X, follow us to connect with us :- @TimesTabloid1 — TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025 Competing Narratives and Market Distrust Alongside the verified explanation, a darker theory quickly circulated online. Some observers speculated that the exchange may have used the error narrative to conceal intentional Bitcoin selling. No credible public evidence supports that claim, and official recovery efforts contradict the idea of coordinated dumping. Still, the rapid spread of suspicion highlights a deeper issue within cryptocurrency markets: persistent distrust of centralized intermediaries. Even transparent incidents can fuel manipulation theories when transparency across trading venues remains uneven. Why the Flash Crash Resonates Beyond Bitcoin The Bithumb episode illustrates how fragile short-term liquidity can become when unexpected supply floods a single marketplace. Although the disruption remained largely contained, the psychological impact traveled far beyond one exchange, reinforcing concerns about custodial risk, operational oversight, and systemic resilience across the crypto ecosystem. Kwok’s framing ultimately reflects a broader truth about digital-asset markets. Traders must constantly separate verified structural events from rumor-driven narratives, even when both produce identical price swings. The recent flash crash may stem from a straightforward operational failure, yet the persistence of darker interpretations shows that trust—not volatility—remains cryptocurrency’s most sensitive fault line. Disclaimer : This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers should conduct in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses. Follow us on Twitter , Facebook , Telegram , and Google News The post XRP Proponent Shares One Explanation for the Recent Flash Crash appeared first on Times Tabloid .

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Bitgo Holdings: Despite Positives, Crypto Winter Has Arrived

  vor 9 Monaten

Summary Bitgo Holdings recently completed its IPO, entering the public markets amid heightened investor interest in digital asset infrastructure. BTGO is well positioned for tokenization as a regulated custodian, serving institutional clients and benefiting from increasing demand for secure crypto asset storage. BTGO's revenue model leverages transaction fees and asset-based charges, providing scalability as institutional adoption of digital assets accelerates. It has been just two weeks since Bitgo Holdings ( BTGO ) had its IPO in late January, and the stock has already been on a wild ride. After raising $213 million at $18 per share and a fully diluted valuation of $2.1 billion, shareholders of BTGO haven't had much to be excited about as the stock has fallen in sympathy with the broader cryptocurrency market. Data by YCharts Down nearly 45% from the company's IPO price in just 10 sessions amid the market carnage, is it time to take a shot on BTGO shares? In this coverage initiation article, I'll get into what Bitgo does and the estimated financials of the business through the end of 2025. Bitgo: A Brief Intro Headquartered in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, Bitgo aims to reduce the fragmentation in the digital assets financial services industry by providing an all-in-one platform for institutional and high-net-worth individuals. Bitgo Among other things, Bitgo offers clients self-custodial wallets, managed wallets, staking & restaking, stablecoin services, lending, settlement, token trading, wealth management, and asset custody. The company cites $104 billion in platform assets, nearly 5,000 clients, and over 1,550 tradable assets. Bitgo was co-founded by acting CEO Mike Belshe in 2011 and is the custodian for the Wrapped Bitcoin ( WBTC-USD ) token on Ethereum ( ETH-USD ) as well as the World Liberty Financial (WLFI-USD) stablecoin USD1. The company is leaning into real-world asset tokenization (or RWA) and sees the tokenization theme as a multi-trillion dollar opportunity. Tokenization is a digital asset narrative that I've explored through Seeking Alpha work dating back to at least as early as 2023 . Tokenization sounds compelling, from where I sit. However, I think it will be an uphill climb due to all of the existing financial market infrastructure that would be at risk of disruption in a fully tokenized market. Should tokenization efforts progress broadly, Bitgo could be well positioned, given its standing with regulators. Bitgo has a history of making efforts toward regulatory compliance. Most recently, the company announced that it is the first public digital asset infrastructure company that is federally chartered. This potentially reduces the regulatory risk for BTGO that might be often associated with other crypto-related businesses. Market competitors for Bitgo include but are not limited to Coinbase Custody ( COIN ), Bullish ( BLSH ), Anchorage Digital, and Fidelity Digital Assets. Latest Financials While the company hasn't yet released financials for the final three months of 2025, Bitgo did provide estimated revenue and expenses for 2025 with a high and low range estimation. In the tables below, I'm taking the average of the estimates for the columns labeled 'estimated 2025. The good news is Bitgo had explosive growth last year. Revenue (000s) Estimated 2025 2024 YoY Digital assets sales revenue $15,498,993 $2,543,019 509.5% Staking revenue $376,844 $459,573 -18.0% Subscriptions and services revenue $117,649 $77,443 51.9% Stablecoin-as-a-Service revenue $65,062 $0 Interest Income $1,481 $932 58.9% Total Revenue $16,060,028 $3,080,967 421.3% Source: Bitgo filing With digital asset sales revenue of $15.5 billion estimated, Bitgo grew category revenue by 510% and total revenue by over 421%. This is terrific growth, to say the least, and is largely organic, as far as I can tell, rather than through mergers and acquisitions. This is perhaps not surprising considering Bitgo caters to a more institutional, compliant clientele than what would likely be expected from the more retail-focused cryptocurrency exchanges. Though it should be noted that staking revenue was down by 18%. Expenses (000s) Estimated 2025 2024 YoY Digital asset sales cost $15,464,376 $2,531,063 511.0% Staking fees $337,388 $419,286 -19.5% Stablecoin sponsor fees $62,393 $0 Interest expense $10,748 $1,630 559.4% Compensation and benefits $101,973 $79,939 27.6% General and administrative expenses $76,039 $52,817 44.0% Amortization and depreciation $3,773 $3,216 17.3% Total expenses $16,056,689 $3,087,951 420.0% Income (loss) from operations $3,339 -$6,984 -147.8% Source: Bitgo filing Estimated 2025 expenses were up roughly in line with top-line revenue at 420% year over year, with the largest increase coming from the digital asset sales segment. Interest expense was actually the largest YoY spike by percentage. The biggest win, perhaps, is the positive expected net income of $3.3 million during the calendar year. This shows another year of positive change in the company's operating history. Bitgo Annual Performance ( Bitgo ) In 2022, Bitgo lost over $74 million dollars. The company was able to reduce that net loss from operations dramatically in each of the subsequent years. While the shift to profitability is terrific, I do see some potential concerns that prospective shareholders should be aware of. First, Bitgo's take rate on digital asset sales was 0.22% in 2025. That was down more than 50% from 2024. Take Rate Estimated 2025 2024 YoY Digital Asset Sales 0.22% 0.47% -52.5% Staking Business 10.47% 8.77% 19.4% Source: Bitgo filing While it certainly seems that the company has found a nice profit-driving fit in its staking business, Bitgo will have to find a way to walk the fine line between extracting value from staking asset services while minimizing any client churn. It's important to keep in mind that staking can be done directly on-chain by the asset owners in many cases. And as digital asset custody businesses mature, it stands to reason that custody fees could potentially see a race to the bottom. So far, churn doesn't appear to be a concern: Performance Metrics ( Bitgo ) While assets on the platform and assets staked have declined over the last 12 months, number of users and the number of clients have both increased. This would seem to imply that asset values have been the larger detriment to the decline in AoP than clients pulling funds. Regardless, these are important metrics to keep in mind when the company eventually provides its annual report. Key Risk: Crypto Winter As I see it, the biggest risk to Bitgo Holdings, aside from competition, is loss of investor interest in the asset class itself. Sentiment in the market is admittedly horrific. There was never a true 'altcoin season' in this cycle the way the market provided in prior cycles. Thus, I suspect that could discourage long-term investment in the asset class broadly, as it could be argued that the easy money party is over in the industry. In my opinion, the digital asset industry needs to get serious about building something that is actually useful in the real world. Outside of a handful of interesting opportunities, I still don't quite see it yet. 90 Day Performance (CoinMarketCap) Furthermore, of the only eight 'top 100' tokens that have a positive performance over the last 90 days, two of them are gold-backed, and one of the other ones is an asset that powers a Tradi-Fi-funded smart contract chain that figures to challenge essentially every single 'decentralized' L1 in the market today. That asset is vying for the exact market that Bitgo is prioritizing currently. This is a major headwind, in my view, and should absolutely be taken into consideration by investors in Ethereum ( ETH-USD ), Solana ( SOL-USD ), and stablecoin issuers like Circle Internet Group ( CRCL ). If you're unsure of what I'm referring to, I highly recommend reading Thomas Carroll's recent piece on the Canton Network ( CC-USD ). Closing Summary There are things I like about Bitgo and things I don't like about it. While I think it's great that the company appears to have generated a positive net income in 2025 for the first time in at least 3 years, the take rate on Bitgo's largest business was more than cut in half from 2024 to 2025. Though user growth is good, AoP was down year over year. And I say all of this before again mentioning the elephant in the room: Bitgo is a crypto pure play while the sector is entering 'crypto winter.' I don't see a clear reason to expect that the company won't survive crypto winter, but Bitgo is vying for a tokenization market that is going to be extremely competitive. The history of regulatory compliance is a strong signal, and being federally chartered is terrific, but there are no guarantees of success based on those facts alone. I don't hate the idea of a speculative long in BTGO. But I want to see lower prices first.

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Bithumb Issues Statement Over Reward Payment Error – Details

  vor 9 Monaten

Korean exchange Bithumb has cleared the air over an internal error that credited certain user wallets with a “concerning” amount of BTC. Notably, this mishap resulted in significant price volatility on the exchange, drawing attention from observing crypto enthusiasts. Bithumb Moves To Wrap Up Recovery After Overpayment Error On February 6, Lookonchain, among many crypto commentary accounts, shared that Bithumb had accidentally transferred 2,000 BTC ($134 million) each to users, instead of 2000 KRW ($1.34) in a reward payout. Some recipients immediately sold, causing a 10% flash crash on the Korean exchange, pushing prices briefly to around $55,000. In a blog post, Bithumb explained the incident as an overpayment that occurred during a promotional event process involving 695 recipients. The exchange stated it had mistakenly transferred 620,000 BTC to these wallets, an error that was immediately noticed, resulting in a swift ban on withdrawals for all affected wallets within 35 minutes of the transaction. Notably, Bithumb sharply recovered 618,212 BTC, representing 99.7% of the total overpayment amount. Meanwhile, 93% of the 1788 BTC already sold have also been recovered in KRW and other digital assets. According to the exchange, the remaining sold amount that hasn’t been recovered will be covered using company assets. Meanwhile, efforts are underway to ensure such operational errors never recur. A statement from the exchange said: Bithumb takes this incident very seriously and will do its utmost to prevent recurrence by redesigning the entire asset payment process and enhancing the internal control system. Bithumb also kicked against suspicion of external or malicious interference, assuring users that their system remains uncompromised: They said: We want to make it clear that this incident is unrelated to any external hacking or security breach, and does not pose any issues with system security or customer asset management. Customer assets are being safely managed as before, and transactions and deposits/withdrawals are currently operating normally. Crypto Market Overview In other news, the total crypto market cap has now climbed to $2.34 trillion after a 5.68% gain in the past day. This follows an earlier bloodbath in the week, during which the market cap fell to around $2.19 trillion. Despite the recent recovery, data from CoinMarketCap shows the digital asset market remains about 45% away from its present cycle all-time high at $4.28 trillion. Market sentiment also continues to reflect caution, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently reading 8, signaling extreme fear among investors. Featured image from Blocktempo, chart from Tradingview

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MARA Holdings: Mirroring The Bitcoin Breakdown (Rating Downgrade)

  vor 9 Monaten

Summary MARA Holdings faces heightened downside risk as a pure-play, leveraged Bitcoin miner amid confirmed crypto bear market technicals. MARA's lack of successful diversification into AI or HPC, unlike peers WULF and IREN, leaves it more exposed to Bitcoin's price declines. Technical momentum is decisively bearish: MARA trades well below key moving averages, with any rallies likely to meet selling pressure. Historical patterns suggest MARA may remain trapped below major averages for multiple quarters unless it reclaims the 50-week SMA with conviction. MARA Holdings ( MARA ) is caught in the crossfires of Bitcoin’s weekend dip that saw over $2.5 billion in liquidations and cascading sell-offs of Bitcoin-related stocks. Some miners like TeraWulf ( WULF ) and IREN ( IREN ) held up comparatively stronger, initially only seeing a low single-digit drop over the weekend, but have since dropped more this week. MARA vs peers, 1W trend comparison (Seeking Alpha ) This contrast in market reaction between MARA and peers in the above 1W timeframe chart shows how the market is valuing their risk exposure to Bitcoin and other crypto assets. The others mentioned have executed their pivot to HPC and AI, while MARA has leaned more heavily toward equity raises to purchase more Bitcoin besides the one they mine, and has also followed a full hold strategy for the Bitcoin they mine. This is the core narrative divergence. WULF and IREN have successfully rebranded as power and compute firms with contracted AI revenue, while MARA remains seen as a pure-play levered BTC bet, which the market is punishing more during this dip (and will likely punish more if Bitcoin dips further). Every miner has pursued a diversification strategy in one way or the other, either through HPC/AI hosting, through manufacture of in-house hardware like Bitdeer ( BTDR ), or through balance sheet Bitcoin accumulation. In this update, I'll gauge MARA’s still elevated continued risk profile tied to BTC as we move into a proper crypto bear market (as the technical indicators currently show) and any near term relief from its diversification efforts, the timing, and maybe the potential for a short squeeze and snap-back momentum no matter what Bitcoin does. But to properly analyze MARA (especially from a technical analysis standpoint), I think it is important to establish some key facts about Bitcoin’s price movement at the moment. MARA tracking BTC (Seeking Alpha ) The setup for MARA has become highly bearish and unattractive at current BTC prices. And I think Mr. Market is still being a bit optimistic for MARA, as it is mirroring BTC’s exact price movements. Leveraged Bitcoin plays typically fall at a 2x to 3x rate compared to BTC in a market downturn. It is the same way they rise at the same accelerated rate compared to BTC in a market uptrend. I think the mirroring of Bitcoin's decline without the typical high-beta flush is happening because a portion of the market still doubts if the crypto bear market has really turned full blown yet, hoping for a trend reversal under the impression that this could all be a ripple effect from market-wide sell-offs of precious metals. Bitcoin EMA 50, close (TradingView) But Bitcoin's latest dip below $75,000 over the weekend and now breaking the $70,000 psychological support yesterday shifts downside risk higher for MARA. Key technical levels have now been breached. With both the 21-week and 50-week SMAs now flipped into resistance as well as EMA 50, which confirms a full loss of the medium and long cycle trend. Bitcoin lost the EMA 50 near $95,000 on November 12 (as shown in the preceding chart) and has failed to reclaim it on subsequent dips like it did a few times between 2024 and 2025 (note where the price candles touch the blue line on that preceding chart and the bounce off it). As Bitcoin's current price, $66,900, is currently ~30% below this level, the 50-week EMA has flipped into an overhead supply zone. Any relief rally would need to be super strong with ample volume to clear that resistance; else it will be a series of dead cat bounces ahead. MARA 50 day SMA, 200 day SMA (StockAnalysis) The downside pressure for BTC is mirrored in MARA’s own chart. The preceding MARA chart shows that clear transition from distribution into a confirmed downtrend. On the daily timeframe, the stock has been printing lower highs and lower lows since October, with the price dropping to a low of $6.45 yesterday, which is a newly created cycle low. Price sits well below both the 50-day simple average near $10.50–$11.00 and the 200-day average near $14.50–$15.00, with the 50-day already crossing below the 200 day, fully confirming a bearish regime. Both averages are sloping down, having flipped prior support into overhead resistance, and any relief rally into the $10.50–$11.00 zone is likely to meet selling pressure. Volume behavior reinforces this view, with heavy selling during the initial breakdown in November and muted volume on subsequent bounces. Momentum favors continuation lower until MARA can reclaim the 50-day average with conviction. As long as Bitcoin remains weak on the weekly chart, MARA’s downside risk remains very high. Any upside moves without reclaiming the trend should be regarded as short-term bounces, not trend shifts. Spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (Bitbo) While this market cycle began with what was thought would be a different trend this time for Bitcoin due to institutional demand. Many analysts (myself included) thought institutional buying via the spot Bitcoin ETFs would make the structural floor stronger for Bitcoin this time, but as it has turned out, geopolitics and macro events have triggered a broader sell off in safe haven assets, with Gold ( XAUUSD:CUR ) seeing over $10 trillion wiped off its market cap and Silver ( XAGUSD:CUR ) ~35% price drop from its all time high just weeks ago. The liquidity cushion expected to be provided via institutional adoption of Bitcoin hasn't held in the current dash for cash across global markets. MARA is caught in the crosscurrents of all these market forces because it positioned itself as an aggressive full hold and leverage play on Bitcoin. And though MARA has begun a pivot toward power and data center infrastructure, I think the timing is coming a little too late. At this stage, the pivot still relies on letters of intent and partnerships like the one MARA announced with MPLX LP ( MPLX ) back in November. Meanwhile, peers like IREN and WULF have been rerated, and the market is already pricing in annual run rate revenue xx into the valuation. This brings me to the main takeaway for this piece, which is: technical and momentum indicators now point to a multi quarter crypto bear market, which typically lasts around 10 months to 1 year, and MARA will likely be tracking alongside Bitcoin throughout the bear market. The latest Bitcoin drawdown is not driven by a black swan event, like what we saw during COVID when the market rebounded in weeks. Simple technicals have confirmed the bear market. Though there has been a broader market sell-off this week, AI exposure is also under pressure, with IREN and WULF down by double digits yesterday due to AI capex fears and weakness in the latest JOLTS report released yesterday. But I believe peers like IREN and WULF, with a cleaner pivot and contracted revenue, will not be tracking directly alongside Bitcoin and MARA during the bear market. While past market trends do not always repeat identically in the current cycle, some historical context is worth it here for MARA as added confirmation of a Bitcoin bear market and what investors might want to watch for based on simple technicals. MARA,.SMA 50 weekly (TradingView ) Just like in the current setup, MARA lost the 50-week SMA in late 2018, in the 2018 bear market, and stayed below it for over a year (about 14 months) until around mid 2020 when rallies began attempting to reclaim it. Again, in the 2021 - 2022 bear market, MARA lost the 50 week SMA around March 2022, and spent over a year below the 50 week SMA, with multiple failed weekly attempts to reclaim it and spent over a year below it again, confirming the extended bear market, until reclaiming it in mid 2023. In both 2018 and 2022 bear markets, the true bottom for MARA wasn't confirmed until MARA first touched the 50 week SMA and closed two consecutive weeks above it with expanding volume. Without that conviction, every bounce was simply a distribution. A ~30% drawdown from key technical levels is a far step away from real support. In the current setup, MARA remains trapped well below major weekly averages, and any short-term bounces are likely to be sold into. This keeps the risk skewed to the downside until MARA convincingly breaks back above these levels.

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