The crypto industry is about to get a wakeup call, as many companies will realize "they don’t have businesses, they have products," says Bullish CEO Tom Farley.
The crypto crash is coming — and the landing won’t be pretty
The XRP price has hit oversold levels, marking its lowest readings in history. A crypto analyst has reported that each time XRP has reached these levels, a price bounce has followed. Based on this, he believes that XRP could be on the verge of another major rebound, projecting a potential rally above $2. XRP Price Sinks To Oversold Levels Ahead Of Rebound A crypto market analyst known as ‘Ripple Bull Winkle’ on X has outlined a short-term bullish outlook for XRP. Despite consistently breaking key support levels and now trading around $1.4, the analyst argues that XRP may be positioning itself for a substantial recovery that could ultimately push its price back above $2. Related Reading: Pundit Says XRP Price Is Not A ‘Crypto’ Question, But A Systemically Important Liquidity Asset The basis for Ripple Bull Winkle’s optimism stems from a recurring historical pattern that, in his view, has never failed to produce a bounce in the XRP price. Specifically, the analyst highlights a repeating Relative Strength Index (RSI) pattern. He announced that XRP recently reached an RSI of 20 on the daily chart, marking the most oversold reading in its history. According to the analyst, every time XRP has entered similarly extreme oversold territory, a price bounce of approximately 15-40% has always followed. He said such rebounds typically occur within two weeks of reaching these levels. He also emphasized that this recovery has not happened occasionally but consistently, reinforcing his confidence that XRP is likely to follow the same pattern and bounce again. If everything plays out as expected, Ripple Bull Winkle projects that XRP could see a relief bounce to $2.20-$2.50 before the end of February 2026. He noted that a rally to this bullish target is the highest-probability event the market has had this year. Analyst Shares Multiple Resistance Targets For XRP Looking at Ripple Bull Winkle’s accompanying price chart, he has marked several key resistance zones using red horizontal lines, indicating areas where XRP may encounter selling pressure or struggle to advance. These levels range from approximately $1.8-$1.91 to $2.06-$2.19, followed by $2.29-$2.41, $2.67-$2.78, and a higher resistance band near $3.10-$3.18. Related Reading: Rising Above The Ashes: XRP ETFs Set New Record Despite Market Crash Collectively, these levels serve as both potential barriers that could slow price movement and upside targets that XRP is expected to reach. The upward-pointing blue arrows in the chart also signal the analyst’s expectation of a bullish breakout or a sustained rally toward the stacked resistance levels if XRP builds enough momentum. As of writing, XRP appears to be recovering from its recent downtrend. Its price has rebounded by more than 10% over the past 24 hours and is currently trading above $1.4 after briefly dipping below $1.3, according to CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
Solana may be outperforming Ethereum across key metrics right now.
One of crypto’s biggest players has grand plans to deploy its large profits
Bitcoin has always been associated with volatility. Large drawdowns have been part of the asset’s history since its earliest trading days, often followed by strong recoveries that reinforced its long-term growth narrative. For many investors, these cycles became an accepted feature of digital asset markets. Recent market corrections, however, are prompting a deeper reassessment of how crypto exposure fits within broader investment strategies. As digital asset portfolios grow and institutional participation increases, investors are beginning to evaluate not only potential upside, but also how portfolios behave during periods of market stress. Bitcoin’s drawdowns are no longer viewed purely as temporary price events. They are becoming catalysts for changes in portfolio construction. Bitcoin Volatility and Portfolio Risk Management Bitcoin’s price history has been defined by rapid expansion followed by significant corrections. These cycles have historically rewarded long-term holders, but they have also highlighted the challenges of managing concentrated crypto exposure. For investors with larger allocations to digital assets, volatility introduces questions about capital preservation, liquidity planning, and portfolio balance. When markets decline sharply, strategies built entirely around price appreciation can experience substantial swings in value. This dynamic is encouraging investors to think more carefully about risk management within crypto portfolios. Rather than relying exclusively on long-term price recovery, some investors are exploring allocation strategies designed to balance growth exposure with other participation models. The goal is not to avoid volatility, but to manage how portfolios respond to it. Diversification Beyond Bitcoin Exposure Bitcoin remains the largest and most widely recognised cryptocurrency, but digital asset markets now include thousands of tokens, decentralised finance protocols, and emerging treasury-based participation models. As the ecosystem expands, portfolio diversification is becoming more common. Investors are increasingly spreading exposure across multiple digital assets, blockchain networks, and participation strategies rather than concentrating capital in a single asset. This approach mirrors traditional portfolio construction, where diversification is used to manage market cycles. Crypto portfolios are gradually adopting similar principles as digital assets become more integrated into global financial markets. Diversification in crypto is no longer just about holding multiple tokens. It is also about combining different participation models within a single portfolio. Income Visibility Is Becoming Part of Crypto Allocation One of the most noticeable shifts in recent market cycles is the growing interest in income visibility within digital asset portfolios. Instead of relying entirely on price appreciation, some investors are exploring participation models designed to generate returns with clearer expectations. Staking rewards and decentralised lending have long provided income opportunities in crypto, but these mechanisms are typically variable. Reward rates change with network participation and market demand, which can make income forecasting difficult during volatile periods. Structured digital asset participation models are beginning to offer alternative approaches. These frameworks focus on predefined durations and scheduled distributions, allowing investors to evaluate potential outcomes before allocating capital. For readers interested in how these participation models are evolving, research examining fixed crypto income participation explores how defined-return frameworks are emerging alongside traditional crypto yield strategies. This growing interest reflects a broader shift toward portfolio allocation strategies that balance growth exposure with income visibility. Digital Asset Treasury Models and Market Cycles Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) are becoming part of this evolving landscape. Instead of functioning purely as crypto holding vehicles, treasury models are beginning to incorporate diversification and structured participation frameworks. Blockchain infrastructure improvements are helping support this transition. Smart contracts now allow financial instruments to automate payments, track ownership, and manage redemption processes with transparency. Some platforms, including Varntix , are exploring diversified digital asset treasury models designed to support fixed-term income instruments executed on-chain. Their development reflects a growing intersection between blockchain technology and traditional portfolio allocation thinking. As crypto markets continue to evolve, treasury-based participation models may play an increasingly important role in how investors manage exposure across market cycles. Fixed Income In Crypto Is Here To Stay Bitcoin’s volatility is unlikely to disappear. Market cycles remain central to digital asset adoption and innovation. What appears to be changing is how investors respond to those cycles. Rather than relying solely on long-term price appreciation, portfolio construction in crypto is becoming more diversified and structured. Growth exposure, decentralised finance participation, and income-focused strategies are increasingly being combined within digital asset portfolios. Bitcoin’s drawdowns are not just testing investor conviction. They are helping reshape how crypto exposure is understood within modern portfolio management. Varntix is a digital asset treasury company focused on structured crypto income and on-chain convertible notes. Learn more at varntix.com .
President Donald Trump’s decision to nominate Kevin Warsh for the Fed chair position has pushed expectations for a March rate cut up to 23%. The American selected Warsh in January to succeed Jerome Powell, whose tenure concludes in May. However, investors still have concerns over his hawkish reputation. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group, the probability that markets place on a rate cut at the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has jumped to about 23%, up sharply from roughly 18.4% just days earlier. Traders are pricing in a 25-basis-point reduction, a sign of growing speculation that the next Fed chair could steer policy toward easier money. The shift reflects growing speculation among traders that upcoming leadership changes at the Fed could lead to a pivot toward looser monetary policy — even as the central bank’s own policymakers are signaling caution. Traders’ bets on a March cut are notable because they suggest markets are trying to price in developments well before the Federal Open Market Committee has signaled a formal policy change. Perfumo says Warsh’s nomination gives a mixed macroeconomic message to investors and markets CME data now shows the share of investors betting on rate cuts in March at 23%. Earlier, crypto analyst Nic Purkin had noted, “The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has shaken markets to the core.” According to Puckrin, precious metals slid in late January and early February as markets reacted to Warsh’s reputation for favoring prolonged high interest rates. He argued that investors are adopting Warsh’s outlook on Fed policy, particularly his criticism of the central bank’s oversized balance sheet. He further noted that should the Fed under Warsh pursue balance sheet cuts, investors may face a more constrained liquidity backdrop. Thomas Perfumo, a global economist at cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, also said Warsh’s nomination presents a divided macroeconomic message to markets. He contended that crypto markets may need to adjust to stable, not rising, US liquidity and credit following Warsh’s nomination. This far, crypto traders on Polymarket see a 27% probability of two Fed rate cuts this year. Another 26% have wagered on three cuts in the year, while only 13% see the likelihood of four cuts. ProCap’s Park says BTC’s biggest rally may come if the asset keeps rising despite high Fed rates Crypto asset prices often track liquidity trends, rising with rate cuts and falling when higher rates reduce financing options. One crypto analyst noted that Bitcoin’s next catalyst may materialize if the market rethinks the idea that only declining rates are bullish. “I think we should expect that having more accommodative policies may, in fact, actually not be the catalyst to help us go into a bull market. We have to accept that reality and possibility,” ProCap Financial chief investment officer Jeff Park asserted. Lowering interest rates is one way the Fed sees to stimulate the economy, and Bitcoin enthusiasts see these policies as creating better conditions for riskier assets. Higher rates have been known to hurt Bitcoin, though Park suggests the next big upside for the asset — potentially its ultimate rally — could come if Bitcoin keeps climbing amid higher Fed rates, a stage he calls “positive row Bitcoin.” “This is the mythical, elusive perfect holy grail of what Bitcoin is meant to be, which is when Bitcoin goes up as interest rates go up, which is very counterintuitive to the QE theory,” he said. Nonetheless, he claimed that if that were to happen, it would compromise the risk-free rate, meaning they could no longer use traditional methods to price the yield curve. But, he also pointed out that the current monetary system is flawed, and that the Fed and Treasury aren’t working together as effectively as needed to guide national securities. Want your project in front of crypto’s top minds? Feature it in our next industry report, where data meets impact.
What drove LIT's daily gains and why whales' actions cannot be overlooked.
Bitcoin’s sharp rallies mask a deeper bear market that could end in a brutal crash, as speculative optimism fades, corporate exposure grows riskier, and digital gold narratives unravel, according to longtime crypto critic Peter Schiff. Bitcoin Rallies Are Traps, Peter Schiff Says, ‘Sell the Rip’ Before Bear Market Crash Economist and gold advocate Peter Schiff
Summary Blood is on the Ethereum streets, and Sharplink hasn’t been spared. Compared to a pure play Ether long position, Sharplink offers some unique advantages. A closer look at Sharplink’s price and underlying fundamentals points to a compelling entry point here. From its roots as an online affiliate marketing company, Sharplink ( SBET ) has successfully pivoted into one of the largest digital asset treasury companies (or DATCOs) on the market. SBET’s treasury strategy, announced in June last year, is focused on Ether ( ETH-USD ), the Ethereum blockchain’s native currency and the #2 cryptocurrency by market cap. As it stands, SBET has accumulated a very sizeable ~863K ETH treasury (worth ~$2bn at the time of writing), making it the #2 public holder of ETH after Bitmine Immersion ( BMNR ). Strategic ETH Reserve Like most other DATCOs, SBET funds its accumulation strategy by issuing shares, when they trade at a premium to their underlying net asset value, under an amended “At-The-Market” (or ATM) Sales Agreement. This strategy paid off for a while, allowing SBET to raise well over $2bn of gross proceeds toward building its ETH stockpile. In recent months, however, sentiment has tanked, taking ETH prices to less than half of their all-time highs. Data by YCharts Along with this drawdown, SBET has seen its NAV premium (the source of its funding) flip into a deep discount. So deep, in fact, that SBET now trades at an over 20% discount to its underlying holdings - at the bottom end of its DATCO peer group. The silver lining here is that deep discounts and peak pessimism also make for good entry points, so it’s worth taking a closer look at the SBET investment case here. Blockworks SBET as a Bet on Ether 1. Ether’s Price to Fundamentals Discrepancy With the legacy gaming business now down to a mid-single-digit % of revenue, a bet on SBET today is a concentrated bet on ETH. And as ETH (the currency) is the “gas” powering Ethereum (the blockchain), you do need to be comfortable underwriting Ethereum’s future. Here, I don’t see too many issues. Yes, price action has not been pretty at all in recent months, but fundamentally speaking, Ethereum’s position as the leading smart contract blockchain remains firmly intact. DefiLlama If anything, all signs point to adoption continuing to go up, rather than down. Broadly speaking, key megatrends in the space, from the growing tokenization of “real world assets” to decentralized finance, remain centered on Ethereum. Sharplink Developer activity also remains as robust as ever - despite the emergence of innovative (and better-funded) new competitor blockchains in recent years. Electric Capital Last but not least, there’s the scaling roadmap, which, as last year’s “Fusaka” upgrade (increased block capacity, among other improvements) showed, paves the way for reduced fees and much higher throughput in the years to come. That should, in turn, allow for activity to migrate back to Ethereum from “Layer 2s” (scaling solutions built on top of Ethereum) like Arbitrum ( ARB-USD ), as well as lower fee, higher throughput chains like Solana ( SOL-USD ). Coin Metrics 2. A Multi-Trillion Dollar CLARITY Catalyst While the infrastructure is as sound as it’s ever been, ETH pricing is also a function of external forces. One of which is regulation. Today, the focus here is on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or “CLARITY Act.” CLARITY will firstly delineate regulatory jurisdiction between the securities regulator, the SEC (for security tokens), and the commodities regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or CFTC (for digital commodity coins/tokens). Recall this was a major point of contention with the previous Biden administration. Bybit Secondly, CLARITY defines regulatory requirements (think registration, AML/KYC, etc.) for applications like decentralized finance and “real world asset” tokenization. Both of these pave the way for institutional participation and the opportunity to tap into “trillions of dollars” of new capital . ETH price very closely tracks the total financial value (or TVL) locked on-chain, so as TVL scales with new inflows, ETH should appreciate accordingly. DefiLlama For all the promise, passing CLARITY hasn’t been as straightforward as last year’s Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (“GENIUS Act”), which established regulatory clarity on stablecoin (i.e., tokens backed 1:1 by equivalent fiat currency) issuers. This has weighed on the market. Bybit The most notable sticking point with CLARITY is the banking industry’s pushback on platforms passing stablecoin yield onto customers. The rationale here is that a more attractive stablecoin proposition might lead to capital flight away from the banking system, creating systemic risks. Whether the banking or crypto lobby ultimately makes the concession is anyone’s guess, but for now, a watered-down CLARITY (minus yield sharing) seems like the base case scenario. Not ideal, but still a net positive, in my view, especially with other major crypto hubs (EU, Hong Kong, UK, etc.) also converging in a similar regulatory direction. Last but not least, a base case outcome isn’t fully priced into the market (60/40 odds per Polymarket ) - despite a growing sense of urgency with midterms looming large. Thus, a potentially positive near-term catalyst worth watching out for. Polymarket SBET as a Bet on Ether Accretion 1. Invest Alongside the Ultimate Ethereum "Insider" There are many ways to invest in ETH today, so why SBET? Management is one big reason, in my view. At the top of the leadership team is key man and Chairman Joseph Lubin. For context, Lubin is the co-founder of Ethereum and founder of Consensys, the company that built out Ethereum’s #1 digital wallet (MetaMask), as well as its infrastructure (Infura). In other words, about as much of an “insider” as it gets in the Ethereum ecosystem. Alongside Lubin is CEO Joseph Chalom, who brings fintech and digital assets experience from BlackRock ( BLK ). Together, Lubin and Chalom bring the access and expertise to string together some fairly unique opportunities across the Ethereum ecosystem. Sharplink Take, for instance, the incremental yield SBET has been able to unlock by liquid staking ~$200m on Linea (an Ethereum “Layer 2” network backed by Consensys) in a multi-year deal. In addition to native yield (currently 2.5-3%), this opportunity allows SBET to layer additional re-staking yield (from EigenCloud) and incentives from Linea and ether.fi on top. Sharplink Then you also have opportunities with the Ethereum Foundation, the non-profit supporting protocol growth, research & development. Of particular note here is the ETH Foundation's decision to sell ~10k ETH directly to SBET - a win-win outcome. For the foundation, a direct sale to an aligned party minimizes price impact if it had decided to sell into the open market. Meanwhile, SBET gets to negotiate better trade terms for the direct sale. How else can SBET leverage its privileged position down the line? Perhaps it gets first pass at managing foundation assets down the line. Or perhaps it innovates capital raising opportunities outside of the existing $6bn facility, allowing it to fund accretive ETH purchases. Either way, there's a latent value creation opportunity at SBET, which, in my view, isn’t reflected at current prices. 2. Buy Ether at a Discount SBET is a treasury company, so most of the valuation work is already done for you on its live dashboard , which tracks both its underlying net asset value and the market Net Asset Value (or mNAV). Sharplink What isn’t here, though, is, firstly, the incremental value from SBET’s staking yield. Note that while yields are currently around 2.5%, SBET is able to get a little bit more creative here and therefore generate above average yields. The company isn’t subject to redemptions either, so there is really no hurdle to SBET staking its full ETH balance. Putting it all together, this means that even a ~3% yield assumption (conservative given SBET’s participation in L2s and re-staking), net of recurring SG&A expenses, could add quite a bit of upside going forward. Sharplink The second ‘free’ option is SBET’s future discount narrowing initiatives. For now, management hasn’t shown much intent beyond equity offerings (when mNAV >1) and buybacks (when mNAV MSTR ) has shown, treasury companies can raise funds in all sorts of creative ways; more so for SBET, given its access, via Lubin/Consensys, to virtually every part of the Ethereum ecosystem. In sum, there’s clear value here, as neither the balance sheet nor the two ‘free’ options above are being priced in at the current 0.77x fully diluted mNAV. A compelling entry point for those with patience and looking to deploy new money. Final Note on Risks & Summing Up To be clear, SBET also comes with several key risks. Volatility, derived both from the ETH price and the mNAV discount/premium, means this isn’t an investment for the faint of heart. As discussed, regulation is also a factor here, and unfavorable outcomes could negatively impact SBET’s existing investments and its ability to raise new capital. Still, there’s more than enough buffer at currently depressed prices to offset these risks and then some. Thus, I’m quite happy underwriting SBET—both as a standalone long (captures ETH upside + mNAV discount narrowing) or with an accompanying ETH hedge (only captures the discount narrowing).