Indiana Legislature Opens Public Pension Funds to Cryptocurrency ETF Investments

  vor 9 Monaten

The Indiana Senate advances a bill allowing public pensions to invest in cryptocurrency ETFs. Investments will be limited to regulated ETFs, excluding stablecoins, to ensure security. Continue Reading: Indiana Legislature Opens Public Pension Funds to Cryptocurrency ETF Investments The post Indiana Legislature Opens Public Pension Funds to Cryptocurrency ETF Investments appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

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EUR/USD Defies Logic: Stunning Resilience of Dollar Pressure Despite Strong Eurozone Growth

  vor 9 Monaten

BitcoinWorld EUR/USD Defies Logic: Stunning Resilience of Dollar Pressure Despite Strong Eurozone Growth FRANKFURT, January 2025 – The EUR/USD currency pair continues its downward trajectory, presenting a perplexing scenario for traders and economists alike. Despite robust Eurozone GDP figures released this morning, the euro fails to gain meaningful ground against the US dollar. This divergence between economic fundamentals and market behavior highlights the complex interplay of global monetary policies, investor sentiment, and geopolitical factors shaping currency markets in 2025. EUR/USD Technical Analysis and Current Market Position Market data reveals the EUR/USD trading at 1.0725, representing a 0.3% decline from yesterday’s close. This movement occurs despite Eurostat reporting a 0.4% quarterly GDP growth for the Eurozone, exceeding analyst expectations of 0.3%. The currency pair has now declined for five consecutive sessions, testing key support levels not seen since November 2024. Technical indicators show the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day average, forming what traders call a “death cross” pattern. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index sits at 32, approaching oversold territory but not yet signaling a reversal. Several factors contribute to this technical weakness. First, trading volume has increased by 18% compared to the monthly average. Second, options market data shows heightened demand for dollar calls against euro puts. Third, institutional positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reveals hedge funds have increased their net short euro positions by 12,000 contracts. Market participants clearly anticipate further dollar strength despite positive European economic news. Eurozone Economic Fundamentals Versus Market Reality The Eurozone’s economic performance presents a contradictory picture to currency market movements. The latest GDP data shows Germany expanding by 0.5%, France by 0.4%, and Italy by 0.3%. Unemployment across the bloc has fallen to 6.4%, its lowest level since 2020. Industrial production increased by 1.2% month-over-month, while services PMI registered at 52.7, indicating continued expansion. These indicators typically support currency appreciation through several mechanisms: Interest rate expectations: Strong growth often precedes tighter monetary policy Capital flows: Improving economies attract foreign investment Risk sentiment: Economic stability reduces perceived currency risk Trade balances: Domestic growth can improve export competitiveness However, the euro’s failure to respond suggests deeper structural issues. The European Central Bank’s cautious communication about future rate cuts contrasts with market expectations. Additionally, energy price volatility continues to pressure European manufacturing competitiveness. Political uncertainty in several member states further complicates the investment landscape. These factors collectively outweigh the positive GDP data in currency valuation models. Monetary Policy Divergence: The Core Driver The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank present increasingly divergent policy outlooks. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized continued vigilance against inflation in yesterday’s testimony, suggesting rates may remain elevated through 2025. Conversely, ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated potential rate cuts could begin as early as March if inflation trends continue. This policy divergence creates a fundamental yield advantage for dollar-denominated assets. Interest rate differentials between US and German 10-year government bonds have widened to 180 basis points, the largest gap since 2022. This spread drives capital flows toward higher-yielding dollar assets. Furthermore, the Fed’s balance sheet reduction continues at a faster pace than the ECB’s quantitative tightening program. These technical monetary factors exert significant downward pressure on EUR/USD regardless of economic growth comparisons. Global Risk Factors Influencing Currency Markets Several external factors contribute to the dollar’s strength against major currencies. Geopolitical tensions in multiple regions have increased demand for safe-haven assets. The US dollar traditionally serves as the primary global reserve currency during periods of uncertainty. Additionally, emerging market debt concerns have prompted capital repatriation to dollar-denominated instruments. The following table illustrates key risk factors affecting currency valuations: Risk Factor Impact on EUR/USD Time Horizon Middle East tensions Negative for euro Short to medium term China property sector stress Mixed impact Medium term US election uncertainty Positive for dollar initially Long term European energy security Negative for euro Persistent Energy markets particularly influence the euro-dollar relationship. Europe’s continued dependence on imported energy creates persistent trade balance pressures. Natural gas prices, while stabilized from 2022 peaks, remain 40% above pre-crisis averages. This structural disadvantage affects manufacturing competitiveness and inflation differentials. Consequently, currency markets price these fundamental imbalances into EUR/USD valuations regardless of quarterly GDP fluctuations. Historical Context and Market Psychology Current market behavior echoes previous periods of dollar strength during European economic recovery. The 2014-2015 period saw similar divergence as the Fed tapered quantitative easing while the ECB expanded stimulus. Market psychology currently favors dollar assets due to several perceptual factors. Investors perceive US economic resilience as more durable despite similar growth metrics. Additionally, liquidity considerations during periods of market stress favor the dollar’s depth and stability. Technical traders note that EUR/USD has broken below its 2024 trading range of 1.08-1.12. This breakdown triggers algorithmic selling and option-related hedging flows. Market positioning had become excessively long euros following earlier ECB hawkish comments, creating conditions for a sharp reversal when those expectations moderated. The concentration of stop-loss orders around the 1.0750 level accelerated today’s decline once that support broke. Expert Perspectives on Currency Valuation Financial institutions offer varied interpretations of current market dynamics. Deutsche Bank analysts note that “currency markets increasingly discount near-term economic data in favor of longer-term structural factors.” Goldman Sachs research suggests “the dollar’s yield advantage and safe-haven status currently outweigh growth differentials.” Meanwhile, BNP Paribas economists argue “markets may be underestimating Eurozone inflation persistence, creating potential for EUR/USD reversal.” These expert views highlight the complexity of currency valuation. Traditional models based on purchasing power parity or interest rate differentials fail to capture current market dynamics. Behavioral finance elements, including herd mentality and confirmation bias, amplify movements beyond fundamental justification. Regulatory changes following the 2023 banking stress also affect market liquidity and price discovery mechanisms. Conclusion The EUR/USD currency pair’s continued depression despite positive Eurozone GDP data reveals the multidimensional nature of modern foreign exchange markets. Monetary policy divergence, geopolitical risk factors, and structural economic imbalances collectively outweigh quarterly growth figures. Market participants should recognize that currency valuation increasingly reflects global capital flows and risk sentiment rather than isolated economic indicators. The EUR/USD relationship will likely remain volatile as central banks navigate inflation control while supporting economic growth through 2025. FAQs Q1: Why doesn’t positive GDP data strengthen the euro? Currency markets consider multiple factors beyond GDP, including interest rate differentials, geopolitical risks, energy prices, and capital flows. Currently, these other factors outweigh the positive growth data. Q2: How significant is the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and ECB? Extremely significant. The Fed maintains a more hawkish stance than the ECB, creating a yield advantage for dollar assets that drives capital flows and currency valuations. Q3: What technical levels are traders watching for EUR/USD? Traders monitor 1.0700 as immediate support, with 1.0650 as the next major level. Resistance appears at 1.0780 and 1.0850. Breaking below 1.0650 could trigger further declines toward 1.0500. Q4: How does energy market volatility affect EUR/USD? Europe’s energy import dependence creates trade balance pressures when energy prices rise. This structural factor persistently weighs on the euro relative to energy-independent economies like the United States. Q5: Could the EUR/USD reverse its current trend? Yes, potential catalysts include unexpectedly high Eurozone inflation, faster ECB rate hikes, reduced geopolitical tensions, or weakening US economic data. However, current momentum favors continued dollar strength. This post EUR/USD Defies Logic: Stunning Resilience of Dollar Pressure Despite Strong Eurozone Growth first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

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Best Crypto Exchanges of 2026 So Far – February Market Leaders

  vor 9 Monaten

Disclosure: This article contains affiliate links. If you click a link and make a purchase or sign up for a service, Bitcoin.com may receive a commission. Our editorial content is independent and based on objective analysis. As 2026 moves further into the first quarter, the top crypto exchanges continue to refine their platforms, raising standards

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HSBC To Power Pilot Issuance Of UK Digital Bonds – Details

  vor 9 Monaten

The UK government has tapped HSBC’s blockchain platform to run a pilot for issuing digital government bonds, called the Digital Gilt Instrument, or DIGIT. The move marks a concrete step toward testing whether blockchain technology can improve efficiency in sovereign debt markets. Reports say legal support for the program will be provided by Ashurst LLP, underlining the complexity of putting a regulated tokenised issuance into practice. Pilot Program Aims To Explore On-Chain Settlement According to reports, the pilot will issue short-dated digital gilts within a sandbox environment supervised by the UK’s financial regulators. That setup allows officials to test issuance, transfer, and settlement processes on a distributed ledger while keeping the main debt system unchanged. HSBC’s Orion platform has previously supported tokenized bond projects abroad and was chosen because it can handle transactions at scale. The government describes the pilot as a means for it to test what works, spot areas for potential savings, and clear up the legality of a fresh type of bond issue. Today we’ve taken an important step towards issuing ’s 1st Digital Gilt Instrument DIGIT will: Enable faster & more efficient transactions Reduce costs for firms Enhance security across our financial system https://t.co/xu5MhnIKtC — Lucy Rigby KC MP (@LucyRigby) February 12, 2026 According to UK Economic Secretary to the Treasury, Lucy Rigby, “Today we’ve taken an important step towards issuing GB’s 1st Digital Gilt Instrument.” Rigby pointed out that she looks forward to “working with HSBC and other parties to deliver DIGIT.” Timing And Procurement Process There has been talk of having a digital gilt for months, and that has put the pilot back from the original expectations. According to sources , the extra time has given the Treasury an opportunity to assess various proposals from different companies: HSBC, the London Stock Exchange, and fintech companies. The decision appears to be a reflection of the conservative approach the regulators would like to take, as well as the government’s intent of avoiding surprises in tokenized debt trialing. According to reports, the pilot bonds used in this process have to replicate realistic issuance circumstances without jeopardizing market stability. Goals And Metrics Of The Pilot The program will focus on several practical measures: settlement speed, custody arrangements, secondary market accessibility, and reconciliation of on-chain records with central books. Reports have disclosed that authorities will closely monitor how automated processes handle bond lifecycles and any taxable events that arise. The results will determine whether the technology is robust enough for wider adoption and whether operational or legal frameworks need adjustment before scaling. Banks and investors are watching the pilot carefully. They want systems that plug into existing Treasury and clearing operations without adding unnecessary risk. Reports say the pilot could set the stage for broader use of tokenized debt in the UK, though uptake will depend on measurable efficiency gains rather than novelty. The government sees this as part of a broader effort to maintain the UK’s competitiveness in capital markets and to attract both domestic and international investment. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

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USD Analysis: Navigating Critical Risk-Off Flows and CPI Data in 2025 Markets

  vor 9 Monaten

BitcoinWorld USD Analysis: Navigating Critical Risk-Off Flows and CPI Data in 2025 Markets Global currency markets face renewed scrutiny in early 2025 as the US dollar responds to shifting risk sentiment and crucial inflation data, with Danske Bank analysts highlighting these interconnected dynamics that could define trading patterns for months ahead. Market participants globally now monitor how traditional safe-haven flows interact with evolving inflation narratives, creating complex scenarios for traders and policymakers alike. USD Analysis: Understanding Current Market Dynamics The US dollar’s position in global markets remains pivotal as 2025 unfolds. Currency traders currently assess multiple competing factors that influence dollar valuation. Firstly, geopolitical tensions in several regions continue to drive capital movements. Secondly, divergent central bank policies create interest rate differentials that affect currency flows. Thirdly, global growth projections influence investor risk appetite significantly. Danske Bank’s foreign exchange strategists emphasize that dollar strength often correlates with market uncertainty. Historical data shows that during periods of financial stress, the dollar typically appreciates against most major currencies. This pattern reflects its status as the world’s primary reserve currency. However, current conditions present unique challenges that require careful analysis. Recent trading sessions demonstrate increased volatility across currency pairs. The dollar index (DXY) has shown notable fluctuations in response to economic data releases. Market liquidity conditions also affect price movements, particularly during overlapping trading sessions. These factors combine to create a complex environment for currency forecasting. Risk-Off Flows: Drivers and Market Impact Risk aversion represents a fundamental force in currency markets during 2025. Several developments contribute to current risk-off sentiment. Geopolitical concerns in multiple regions have intensified recently. Equity market corrections in major economies have prompted portfolio rebalancing. Additionally, credit market stresses have emerged in certain sectors. When investors seek safety, capital typically flows toward perceived safe-haven assets. The US dollar benefits from these movements alongside traditional havens like gold and government bonds. Historical patterns indicate that risk-off episodes often begin suddenly and persist for varying durations. Market participants must therefore monitor several key indicators. VIX Index Levels: The volatility index serves as a primary gauge of market fear Government Bond Spreads: Widening spreads often signal increasing risk aversion Cross-Asset Correlations: Changing relationships between asset classes reveal sentiment shifts Currency Implied Volatility: Options pricing reflects expected currency movements Danske Bank analysts note that risk-off flows exhibit different characteristics in 2025 compared to previous periods. The proliferation of algorithmic trading has accelerated sentiment shifts. Furthermore, the expanded role of retail investors has introduced new dynamics. These developments require updated analytical frameworks for currency forecasting. Expert Perspective: Danske Bank’s Analytical Framework Danske Bank’s currency research team employs a multi-factor approach to dollar analysis. Their methodology combines quantitative models with qualitative assessment. The team monitors real-time capital flow data across multiple jurisdictions. They also analyze positioning data from futures markets and other derivatives. The bank’s analysts emphasize that risk-off episodes often precede economic slowdowns. Historical examination reveals consistent patterns across decades. For instance, the 2008 financial crisis demonstrated how risk aversion can escalate rapidly. Similarly, the 2020 pandemic period showed how health crises trigger capital flight to safety. Current analysis suggests that risk sentiment operates on multiple timeframes. Short-term fluctuations respond to news developments and data releases. Medium-term trends reflect economic cycle positioning. Long-term structural factors include reserve currency status and trade relationships. Understanding these different horizons proves essential for accurate forecasting. CPI Data: The Inflation Dimension in 2025 Consumer Price Index releases represent critical events for currency markets. Inflation data directly influences central bank policy expectations. In the United States, the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate prioritizes price stability. Therefore, CPI figures receive intense scrutiny from market participants globally. The 2025 inflation landscape presents particular complexities. Supply chain adjustments continue following pandemic disruptions. Labor market conditions affect services inflation persistently. Additionally, commodity price fluctuations introduce volatility to headline inflation measures. These factors combine to create forecasting challenges. Recent US CPI Trends and Market Reactions Period Headline CPI Core CPI DXY Reaction Q4 2024 3.2% 3.8% +0.8% January 2025 3.0% 3.6% -0.3% February 2025 2.9% 3.5% +0.5% Market reactions to CPI data depend on several factors. The deviation from consensus forecasts proves particularly important. The composition of inflation changes matters for policy implications. Furthermore, revisions to previous data can alter the perceived inflation trajectory. These elements collectively determine currency market responses. Danske Bank’s economists emphasize that inflation persistence remains a key concern. Services inflation has demonstrated particular stickiness in recent quarters. Housing costs continue to contribute significantly to overall measures. Meanwhile, goods inflation has moderated as supply conditions improve. This divergence creates policy dilemmas for central bankers. Interplay Between Risk Sentiment and Inflation Data The relationship between risk-off flows and CPI data represents a crucial dynamic. Sometimes these factors reinforce each other, while other times they conflict. For example, high inflation readings might trigger risk aversion by suggesting aggressive central bank action. Conversely, moderating inflation could support risk appetite by reducing policy uncertainty. Historical analysis reveals several patterns in this interaction. During the 1970s, stagflation periods combined high inflation with risk aversion. The Volcker disinflation era showed how determined policy action eventually restored confidence. More recently, the post-2008 period demonstrated how low inflation can coexist with risk-seeking behavior. Current market conditions present a mixed picture. Some indicators suggest decoupling between inflation concerns and risk sentiment. Technology sector developments sometimes drive risk appetite independently of inflation data. Meanwhile, commodity price movements influence both inflation measures and risk perceptions simultaneously. Market Structure Changes in 2025 Trading environment evolution affects how markets process information. Electronic trading now dominates currency markets completely. Algorithmic strategies respond to data releases within milliseconds. Additionally, new participants including cryptocurrency traders influence traditional currency markets increasingly. These structural changes alter market dynamics substantially. Price discovery occurs more rapidly than in previous decades. Liquidity conditions can change abruptly during volatile periods. Furthermore, cross-asset correlations have strengthened in many cases. Market participants must adapt their strategies accordingly. Danske Bank’s market structure research highlights several important trends. Trading volume concentration has increased on major platforms. Regulatory changes affect market making activities. Additionally, geopolitical developments influence currency internationalization trends. These factors collectively shape the trading landscape for the US dollar. Global Context and Currency Implications The dollar’s trajectory depends significantly on relative economic performance. Growth differentials between the United States and other major economies matter greatly. Interest rate differentials drive capital flows across borders. Additionally, trade balance developments influence currency valuations over time. Comparative analysis reveals several important trends. European economic recovery faces distinct challenges in 2025. Asian export economies navigate shifting global trade patterns. Emerging markets contend with dollar-denominated debt burdens. These regional dynamics create complex interactions in currency markets. Central bank policy divergence represents another crucial factor. The Federal Reserve’s approach differs from other major central banks currently. The European Central Bank faces different inflation dynamics. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan continues its unique policy framework. These differences create trading opportunities and risks. Conclusion The US dollar’s path through 2025 depends critically on the interplay between risk-off flows and CPI data, as Danske Bank analysis emphasizes. Market participants must monitor both sentiment indicators and inflation metrics simultaneously. Historical patterns provide guidance, but current conditions present unique challenges. Ultimately, successful navigation of currency markets requires understanding these interconnected dynamics thoroughly. The dollar’s role as global reserve currency ensures that its movements will continue to reverberate across all financial markets worldwide. FAQs Q1: What are risk-off flows in currency markets? Risk-off flows refer to capital movements toward perceived safe assets during periods of market uncertainty or stress. Investors typically shift funds from riskier assets to safer options, with the US dollar often benefiting as a major reserve currency. Q2: How does CPI data affect the US dollar? CPI data influences the dollar by shaping expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Higher-than-expected inflation typically strengthens the dollar as traders anticipate more aggressive interest rate hikes, while lower inflation might weaken the dollar by reducing rate hike expectations. Q3: Why does Danske Bank’s analysis matter for currency traders? Danske Bank provides respected institutional research with comprehensive data analysis and historical perspective. Their insights help traders understand complex market dynamics and make informed decisions based on thorough fundamental analysis. Q4: How long do risk-off episodes typically last in currency markets? Risk-off episodes vary significantly in duration, from brief periods lasting days to extended phases continuing for months. The length depends on the underlying causes, policy responses, and how quickly market confidence returns. Q5: What other factors influence the US dollar besides risk sentiment and inflation? The dollar responds to numerous factors including interest rate differentials, economic growth comparisons, geopolitical developments, trade balances, central bank policies, and global reserve management decisions by sovereign wealth funds and central banks. This post USD Analysis: Navigating Critical Risk-Off Flows and CPI Data in 2025 Markets first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

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ETHZilla Unveils Token Backed by Leased Jet Engines

  vor 9 Monaten

The engines are leased to a US air carrier under agreements running through 2028. The company is targeting an 11% return for investors who hold the token for the full lease term, with a minimum purchase of 10 tokens. ETHZilla Debuts Engine Backed Token Crypto treasury firm ETHZilla unveiled a new tokenized investment product backed by commercial aviation assets. This is a big shift away from a pure Ethereum accumulation strategy toward real-world asset tokenization. The company announced that it has launched the Eurus Aero Token I through its newly formed subsidiary, ETHZilla Aerospace. The token is backed by two commercial jet engines that ETHZilla acquired last month for a combined $12.2 million. According to the company, the engines are currently leased to what it described as a leading US air carrier, generating contracted cash flows through lease agreements that run until 2028. Each Eurus Aero Token I is priced at $100, with a minimum purchase requirement of 10 tokens. ETHZilla is targeting an 11% return for investors who hold the token for the full lease term. The structure effectively allows investors to get fractional exposure to income-generating aviation infrastructure, which is an asset class that is traditionally limited to institutional credit funds and private equity firms. Chairman and CEO McAndrew Rudisill said the initiative is designed to broaden access to markets that have historically been difficult for retail or smaller investors to enter. He described the token as a practical example of applying blockchain infrastructure to aviation assets with predictable cash flows and global investor demand. By placing jet engine ownership on-chain, ETHZilla plans to modernize fractional ownership and expand participation in asset-backed investment opportunities. The move is part of a strategic shift for the company. ETHZilla was previously known as 180 Life Sciences Corp, a clinical-stage biotech firm, before pivoting into the crypto sector. In July, it joined a wave of so-called crypto treasury companies that focused on acquiring and holding digital assets, particularly ETH . However, Rudisill indicated late last year that the firm intended to evolve beyond simply holding ETH and instead build a business centered on bringing real-world assets onto blockchain rails through tokenization. ETH’s price action over the past year (Source: CoinCodex) ETHZilla funded its jet engine purchase in part by selling a portion of its Ethereum holdings. The company now plans to expand its tokenization efforts beyond aviation assets, with future offerings potentially tied to asset classes like home and car loans, according to its announcement.

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Bitcoin: Ignore The Panic And Thank Me In The Future

  vor 9 Monaten

Summary I reiterate my buy recommendation on Bitcoin despite its recent collapse below $70,000. BTC's decline is driven by capital rotation, China's mining crackdown, and a shift to traditional commodities like gold and silver. A conservative price target of $103,000 is supported by the Stock to Flow Ratio, with current levels offering a margin of safety. BTC remains attractive for long-term investors, but macro headwinds and concentration risks warrant careful portfolio sizing. Invesment Thesis I reiterate my buy recommendation on Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) after the price collapse. This article is the continuation of my initial coverage thesis published on November 29, 2024, and my last article on the topic was published on November 19, 2025. My intention in this article is to address the main causes that led to the recent collapse in the price of Bitcoin, and to state what needs to happen for the crypto asset to return to making a profit for investors. Context In October 2025, Bitcoin reached $126,000 , an all-time high, however, it fell below $65,000 in February. This is the biggest collapse since FTX in 2022. Many investors have great doubts after all, President Trump promised to make the US a powerhouse in cryptocurencies, asset regulation has advanced , several ETFs have been approved. But what is really happening? Reasons For The Debacle For many years, analysts stated that Bitcoin followed global liquidity, but as we can see in the graph below, this correlation has no longer worked since January 2025. Bitcoin vs Global M2 (ZeroHedge) As incredible as it may seem, since 2022, the most consistent correlation with Bitcoin prices has been the prices of software and SaaS companies. But is this a coincidence? IGV vs Bitcoin (TradingView) It seems to me not, after all, both are long duration assets, sensitive to real interest rates and financing conditions. It turns out that in recent months there has clearly been a migration of capital to generate cash combined with growth. This explains the boom in AI, defense, energy and commodities ETFs. Speaking of commodities, we need to talk about the most relevant country in the world for commodities, China. China's role in the fall of Bitcoin While the United States is taking several measures to boost and strengthen the cryptocurrency industry, China is taking the opposite path. Proof of this is that in December 2025 the Chinese government closed mining operations in Xinjiang. There were 1.3 gigawatts disconnected and according to Jack Kong, founder of Nanolabs, the impact was quite severe. It's worth highlighting an interesting detail here that few analysts talk about, but China still controls 14% of all Bitcoin computing power, even after its ban in 2021. When mining in Xinjiang was closed, several miners were forced to sell Bitcoin to cover the costs. Another crucial factor for the fall in the price of Bitcoin, in my view, is related to precious metals. Despite recent volatility, on January 1, 2026, for example, China implemented export controls on silver, tungsten and antimony. So we see how strategic gold, silver, rare earths and other metals are for China. No wonder in 2025 Bitcoin performed poorly, while gold rose more than 60% and silver rose more than 140%. In other words, investors reduced their momentum in purchasing “digital gold” and increased their momentum in purchasing tradtional gold. Target Price As for the target for Bitcoin, it is interesting to note how there is a clear discrepancy in the bill BTC Stock to Flow Ratio, which shows a clear margin of safety for investing at current prices. BTC Stock to Flow Ratio (Glassnode) If we project the price of Bitcoin according to the last cycle, we would have a conservative target of $103,000. Based on this analysis, I reiterate my recommendation to buy Bitcoin. As I said, although the macro backdrop is not in favor, it is times like these that create the big discounts for pragmatic investors. For Bitcoin to outperform other assets again, real interest rates need to fall clearly, or the market must return to pricing monetary risk, not real growth. Therefore, Bitcoin is still attractive, it is just poorly positioned in the current macro scenario, and as investors know, it is in moments of panic that large discounts appear. Potential Threats To The Thesis There are several risks to the thesis, and one of them is very interesting, as the company Strategy has become a relevant holder of Bitcoin. Therefore, other relevant cryptocurrency investors such as institutional investors, large banks and other market participants may see this concentration in a company with such a histrionic CEO as a risk. Strategy and Bitcoin (IR Company) Another invitation to sell Bitcoin are technical analysis theories (I'm not a fan) that indicate the formation of a shoulder, head, shoulder, a clear selling pattern. Bitcoin (Tradingview) Finally, speculation takes over the news as prices plummet. Pantera Capital suggested that a strong seller, and one of those responsible for the price collapse, is a large Asian investor from outside the cryptocurrency market. Theories funds in Hong Kong to a large investor based in China. The thesis is extremely complex and full of speculation given the nature of Bitcoin, therefore, as I always reiterate, this is not an investment for conservative investors, and the weight of this crypto asset in your portfolio must be strategically considered. The Bottom Line Bitcoin prices have collapsed and are now below $70,000, which is causing many investors to panic. In this article, my intention was to analyze the main causes behind this collapse and also indicate what needs to happen for prices to rise again. The great truth is that Bitcoin's thesis remains intact. The big problem is that the current macroeconomic scenario does not present the same catalysts that boosted Bitcoin in 2024, for example. The dynamics have completely changed and this has created an opportunty for investors who believe in Bitcoin's long term thesis. Based on this analysis, I reiterate the recommendation to buy Bitcoin. It should be noted that the current scenario, which generates panic among investors, creates discounts that may not occur in the future and there is no doubt that the risk-return ratio is much more attractive now than when Bitcoin was at $126,000.

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