Low 24h volume in XLM (48.78M$) is weakening the downtrend, with limited selling pressure. This highlights accumulation patterns, and a volume increase could pave the way for a rally.
BitcoinWorld AUD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Momentum Holds Firm Above 108.50 as Crucial Australian Jobs Data Looms SYDNEY, March 2025 – The AUD/JPY currency pair continues displaying remarkable resilience, maintaining its bullish posture firmly above the critical 108.50 support level as global forex markets shift their attention toward upcoming Australian employment statistics. This sustained upward momentum reflects complex interactions between monetary policy expectations, commodity price movements, and shifting risk sentiment across Asian trading sessions. AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: Bullish Structure Intact Technical analysts observe the AUD/JPY maintaining its constructive pattern above 108.50. The pair recently tested this crucial support zone multiple times without breaking lower, demonstrating substantial buying interest at these levels. Furthermore, the 50-day moving average continues trending upward, providing dynamic support around 107.80. Market technicians highlight several key technical factors currently influencing price action: Support and Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance sits near 109.20, followed by the psychological 110.00 barrier. Support remains firm at 108.50, with secondary support around 107.80. Momentum Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in neutral territory around 58, suggesting room for additional upward movement before reaching overbought conditions. Volume Analysis: Trading volume patterns show increased activity during Asian sessions, particularly during Australian economic data releases. Key AUD/JPY Technical Levels Level Type Significance 110.00 Resistance Psychological barrier and year-to-date high 109.20 Resistance Recent swing high and technical resistance 108.50 Support Critical technical and psychological support 107.80 Support 50-day moving average convergence zone Australian Employment Data: The Coming Catalyst The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release March employment figures this Thursday, creating significant potential volatility for the Australian dollar. Economists surveyed by major financial institutions anticipate several key metrics from this crucial dataset. Employment change expectations center around +25,000 new positions, while the unemployment rate likely holds steady at 4.2%. Additionally, participation rate figures should remain near historical highs at 66.7%. These employment statistics carry substantial weight because they directly influence Reserve Bank of Australia policy decisions. Strong employment data typically supports Australian dollar strength through heightened interest rate expectations. Conversely, weaker-than-expected figures could prompt dovish policy reassessments, potentially undermining AUD momentum. Central Bank Policy Divergence Driving Currency Flows Monetary policy divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan creates fundamental support for AUD/JPY strength. The RBA maintains a relatively hawkish stance compared to global peers, with interest rates at 4.35% as of March 2025. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan continues its ultra-accommodative monetary policy despite recent minor adjustments. This policy differential generates substantial yield advantage for Australian dollar holders, encouraging carry trade activity. However, analysts caution that shifting global risk sentiment can quickly alter these dynamics, particularly during periods of market stress when traders unwind carry positions. Commodity Correlations and Risk Sentiment The Australian dollar maintains strong positive correlation with commodity prices, particularly iron ore and copper. Recent stabilization in Chinese industrial demand provides underlying support for Australian export commodities. Iron ore prices hover near $120 per ton, sustaining Australia’s trade surplus and supporting fundamental AUD valuation. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen traditionally functions as a safe-haven currency during market uncertainty. Consequently, AUD/JPY often serves as a barometer for broader risk appetite across Asian financial markets. Current market conditions show moderate risk-on sentiment, benefiting higher-yielding currencies like the Australian dollar against funding currencies like the yen. Historical Context and Market Psychology The AUD/JPY pair has navigated substantial volatility throughout the past decade, ranging from pandemic-era lows near 59.00 to post-crisis highs above 100.00. The current trading range between 105.00 and 110.00 represents a consolidation phase following the pair’s recovery from 2023 lows. Market participants remember the pair’s sensitivity to Chinese economic data, given Australia’s export dependence on Chinese markets. Additionally, the currency cross exhibits heightened responsiveness to changes in global bond yield differentials, particularly between Australian and Japanese government securities. Institutional Positioning and Market Structure Commitment of Traders reports from major exchanges reveal net long positioning in AUD/JPY futures among institutional investors. Hedge funds and asset managers maintain constructive outlooks on the currency pair, citing favorable interest rate differentials and improving global growth prospects. However, options market data shows increased demand for downside protection ahead of the Australian jobs report, indicating trader awareness of potential volatility. Market structure analysis suggests algorithmic trading systems have increased their participation in AUD/JPY, particularly around technical levels and economic data releases. Regional Economic Integration and Currency Impacts Australia and Japan maintain deep economic ties through the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Bilateral trade flows exceed $70 billion annually, creating natural currency conversion demand that influences spot market dynamics. Japanese investment in Australian infrastructure and energy projects generates consistent yen-to-Australian-dollar conversions, providing structural support for the currency pair. Meanwhile, Australian tourism to Japan has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, creating additional currency exchange flows during peak travel seasons. Conclusion The AUD/JPY forecast maintains a cautiously optimistic tone as technical structure holds above 108.50 and fundamental drivers remain supportive. Upcoming Australian employment data represents the immediate catalyst that could determine near-term direction for the currency pair. Traders should monitor the 108.50 support level closely, as any sustained break below this zone would challenge the current bullish narrative. Meanwhile, resistance near 109.20 and 110.00 presents key upside targets if employment data surprises positively. The broader AUD/JPY outlook remains contingent upon central bank policy trajectories, commodity price developments, and global risk sentiment dynamics through the second quarter of 2025. FAQs Q1: Why is the 108.50 level so important for AUD/JPY? The 108.50 level represents a critical technical support zone where the pair has found consistent buying interest. It also aligns with psychological round-number support and has served as a pivot point for multiple trend changes throughout 2024. Q2: How does Australian employment data affect AUD/JPY? Strong Australian employment data typically strengthens the Australian dollar by increasing expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate hikes. This widens the yield differential with Japan, making AUD more attractive to investors seeking higher returns. Q3: What role does the Bank of Japan policy play in AUD/JPY movements? The Bank of Japan maintains ultra-low interest rates, making the yen a popular funding currency for carry trades. Any shift toward policy normalization could reduce the attractiveness of short-yen positions, potentially pressuring AUD/JPY lower. Q4: How do commodity prices influence AUD/JPY? Australia is a major commodity exporter, particularly of iron ore and coal. Rising commodity prices improve Australia’s terms of trade and support AUD valuation. Since Japan imports most commodities, higher prices can pressure JPY, creating a double effect on AUD/JPY. Q5: What are the main risks to the current bullish AUD/JPY forecast? Key risks include weaker-than-expected Australian economic data, a sudden shift in global risk sentiment prompting safe-haven yen buying, unexpected Bank of Japan policy tightening, or a significant downturn in Chinese demand for Australian commodities. This post AUD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Momentum Holds Firm Above 108.50 as Crucial Australian Jobs Data Looms first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
Multiple technical, onchain and exchange-traded product data points suggest $1.12 was the generational bottom for XRP. Is it time for a trend reversal?
Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States still hold about $85 billion in assets, despite the BTC price crash.
MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has officially confirmed the arrival of a new "crypto winter.".
Billionaire tech investor Peter Thiel and his Founders Fund have fully exited ETHZilla Corp., according to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn is pushing back on a growing critique that Bitcoin has “failed” its digital gold promise, arguing that the label was always about BTC’s monetary properties, not a guarantee it would trade like bullion in every macro regime. In a post on X, Thorn said Bitcoin’s “ failure to trade like gold as part of ‘the debasement trade’ since Sep. ‘25’ damaged its narrative with new entrants,” but framed that disappointment as a category error. “When bitcoiners said ‘digital gold’ they were describing its fundamental properties, not that it’s high beta to gold today,” he wrote, adding: “it comes from Satoshi.” To make the point, Thorn shared a screenshot of a 2010 Bitcointalk exchange in which Satoshi Nakamoto offered a thought experiment about money emerging from scarcity plus transferability. “Imagine there was a base metal as scarce as gold but with the following properties: boring grey in colour; not a good conductor of electricity; not particularly strong, but not ductile or easily malleable either; not useful for any practical or ornamental purpose,” Satoshi wrote. “And one special, magical property: can be transported over a communications channel. If it somehow acquired any value at all for whatever reason, then anyone wanting to transfer wealth over a long distance could buy some, transmit it, and have the recipient sell it.” Thorn’s framing is that the “digital gold” analogy is rooted in that passage: Bitcoin resembles a scarce commodity in key monetary characteristics, while adding a feature that physical metals cannot match, native global portability over communications rails. Bitcoin’s ‘Digital Gold’ Narrative As A Gap Trade Thorn argued Satoshi’s point wasn’t that the market must price Bitcoin in tight relation to gold at all times, but that BTC’s structural attributes can support a gold-like monetary role if the market eventually converges on that valuation. In Thorn’s telling, the investment thesis is the spread between “fundamental gold-like properties” and the market’s willingness to price Bitcoin alongside gold and the probability of that spread narrowing. He described Bitcoin’s underlying profile in terms commonly cited by long-term holders: scarcity and durability, with additional monetary traits such as divisibility and self-sovereignty, then pointed to transferability as the differentiator that makes the analogy more than branding. The “alpha,” in this framework, is not short-term co-movement with bullion, but the possibility that the market ultimately prices BTC more like a monetary metal. The exchange drew agreement from 10T Holdings founder Dan Tapiero, who replied: “Well said.” Tapiero also suggested the current mood around Bitcoin feels like a familiar cycle reset: “So much fear out there on btc. Like the good ol days again.” Not everyone accepted the premise. One user responded, “It never traded like gold. Just because people branded it like gold doesn’t mean it’s true.” Thorn replied: “that’s literally what i’m saying in the post,” underscoring that his argument is precisely that “digital gold” was never a promise of constant gold-like trading behavior. Thorn also downplayed the idea that anything material has changed recently in Bitcoin itself. “Basically nothing has changed about bitcoin in the last 5 months,” he wrote, adding that “if anything the fundamentals are even more appealing.” At press time, BTC traded at $68,048.
Backing from major donors like Michael Dell adds credibility to the initiative at a national level.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how accumulation during the recent Bitcoin drop has looked weaker than some past crashes. Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score Doesn’t Indicate Strong Accumulation In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Accumulation Trend Score of Bitcoin. This indicator tracks whether the BTC investors are accumulating or distributing right now. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Drops To Deepest Level Since FTX Bottom The metric determines this by taking into account for two factors: the balance changes happening in the wallets of the holders and the size of the balances themselves. The latter factor means that larger entities have a higher weightage in the indicator. When the value of the Accumulation Trend Score is greater than 0.5, it means the large holders (or a large number of small entities) are in a phase of accumulation. The closer is the metric to the 1.0 level, the stronger is this behavior. On the other hand, the indicator being under the 0.5 mark suggests distribution is dominant on the network. The selling can be considered the strongest at a value of zero. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score took a yellow shade as the cryptocurrency’s January recovery rally topped out and a move downward followed. This suggests that the investors were distributing. As the coin has stabilized above $65,000 recently, the indicator’s color has changed to a darker one, implying it has broken back above the 0.5 mark. While this is a sign that there has been some accumulation at the post-crash price levels, the degree of it hasn’t been too high. From the chart, it’s apparent that this behavior is in contrast to how the market reacted to the November crash. Back then, the Accumulation Trend Score took a deep purple shade, indicating an aggressive amount of accumulation from the big-money hands. The LUNA and FTX crashes from the 2022 bear market were also met with a similarly extreme accumulation behavior. It now remains to be seen whether the lack of demand this time around will mean that Bitcoin will take some time to settle into a low. Related Reading: 46% Of Bitcoin Supply Now In Loss—What It Could Take For A Bottom In some other news, Glassnode has shared an update in an X post on how the major Bitcoin on-chain price models are looking. As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin’s decline has meant that its price is now trading under all major on-chain pricing models except for the Realized Price, corresponding to the cost basis of the network participants as a whole. This level is currently located at $54,900. BTC Price Bitcoin has stagnated since its recovery from the $60,000 low as its price is still floating around the $68,000 level. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Summary XRP is consolidating after recent volatility, with sellers repeatedly leaning against the $1.49-1.50 zone while buyers step in near the $1.43 area. The February 17 session printed a wide intraday band (about $1.42-1.49), reflecting choppy conditions rather than a clean trend day. Daily signals are mixed-to-constructive on the latest snapshot: RSI (14) is around 55.2 (buy-tilted), while MACD remains marginally negative, suggesting momentum is improving but not fully flipped. By Ezequiel Gomes As of February 17, XRP ( XRP-USD ) is trading near $1.486, down about 0.14% on the day after failing to extend through the $1.50 area. The session has been defined by two-way, range-bound trade, with XRP moving between roughly $1.43 and $1.49 as traders fade upside probes and buy the dips. From a trend-and-momentum standpoint, XRP is still digesting early-February whipsaws, but it’s now hovering slightly above key moving averages on the latest daily technical read. On Investing.com, MA5 is near $1.46, MA50 near $1.47, and MA200 near $1.44 - levels that leave spot close to “mean reversion magnets” and keep the tape headline-sensitive. Momentum is not signaling capitulation. RSI (14) near 55.2 points to steady demand on pullbacks, but MACD (12,26) around -0.003 is still slightly negative, consistent with a market that’s stabilizing after a volatile swing rather than accelerating into a breakout. XRP price dynamics (January 2025 - February 2026) (Source: TradingView) Key levels to watch Near-term levels are fairly clean. Support is concentrated around $1.43 (today’s low zone), then $1.41-1.40 (the mid-February pivot area), with a deeper cushion near $1.35-1.36 (recent rebound base). Below that, the early-February flush zone around $1.21-1.12 becomes the larger “line in the sand.” On the upside, $1.49-1.50 is the first resistance (today’s high neighborhood). Above that, traders will likely focus on $1.515 (February 16 high) and then the $1.54-1.67 band (early-February swing zone where volatility spiked). For tighter technical reference, Investing.com pivot points put the classic pivot near $1.467, with nearby resistance around $1.47, $1.48, and $1.49, while supports cluster around $1.4556 and $1.44 before the $1.43 area. Macro tape and crypto flows keep XRP headline-sensitive Across majors, February 17 action has looked more like consolidation than fresh risk-on, with commentary pointing to mild profit-taking following the weekend move and traders waiting on the next macro catalyst. That matters for XRP, because broad risk sentiment (rates, inflation, and Fed expectations) often dictates whether breakouts above round-number resistance get follow-through - or get faded back into range. In the near term, XRP’s price action remains tightly coupled to broader crypto direction rather than token-specific headlines from Ripple. Price scenarios and short-term forecast Bullish scenario: If XRP reclaims $1.50 and holds above $1.515, the price could rotate toward the mid-$1.50 next, with scope to retest the upper swing band near $1.60-1.67 if broader crypto risk appetite improves. Base-case scenario: XRP continues chopping between roughly $1.43 support and $1.50 resistance while RSI stays constructive but momentum confirmation remains mixed. This would fit the “range trade” feel implied by the day’s wide band and moving-average clustering. Bearish scenario: A decisive break below $1.43 would likely open downside pressure toward $1.40 and $1.35-1.36, with the more consequential downside zone near $1.21-1.12 coming into view if a broader risk-off impulse hits crypto. As for now, Ripple was reported to expand XRPL via an xSPECTAR integration focused on utility and community. Analysts cited rising RWA tokenization, steady volume, and infrastructure upgrades. This material may contain third-party opinions; none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer . While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity , this post may contain references to products from our partners. Original Post