Copper Prices: High Inventories Crush Rebound Hopes – ING Analysis

  vor 3 Stunden

BitcoinWorld Copper Prices: High Inventories Crush Rebound Hopes – ING Analysis Global copper markets face significant headwinds in early 2025 as elevated inventory levels continue to suppress price recovery, according to recent analysis from ING Bank. Despite growing demand from renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors, substantial stockpiles accumulated during previous production cycles now create substantial resistance against sustained price rallies. Market participants monitor these developments closely, particularly as warehouse data reveals persistent oversupply conditions across major trading hubs. Copper Inventories Reach Critical Levels Current inventory data shows copper stockpiles at multi-year highs across global exchanges. The London Metal Exchange (LME) reports warehouse stocks exceeding 200,000 metric tons, representing a 45% increase from 2024 levels. Similarly, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventories reached 300,000 metric tons last month. These substantial reserves create immediate price pressure, as traders anticipate ample supply availability. Market analysts note that inventory builds typically precede price corrections, especially when demand growth fails to match supply expansion. Several factors contribute to current inventory accumulation. First, improved mining operations in Chile and Peru increased production by 8% year-over-year. Second, Chinese smelting capacity expansions added approximately 1.2 million tons of annual refined copper production. Third, global economic uncertainty prompted manufacturers to reduce forward purchasing, leaving more metal in exchange warehouses. Consequently, the physical market demonstrates clear oversupply characteristics despite positive long-term demand narratives. ING Analysis Reveals Market Dynamics ING commodity strategists published their latest copper market assessment this week, highlighting specific inventory-price relationships. Their research indicates that for every 50,000-ton increase in visible inventories, copper prices face approximately 3-5% downward pressure. Current inventory levels suggest potential price suppression of 12-15% from theoretical equilibrium levels. The analysis incorporates data from: Exchange warehouse stocks (LME, COMEX, SHFE) Chinese bonded warehouse inventories Producer and consumer stockpiles In-transit shipments and pipeline inventory ING’s model considers both visible and estimated hidden inventories, providing comprehensive market assessment. Their methodology accounts for seasonal patterns, regional disparities, and quality differentials across copper grades. The bank maintains neutral-to-bearish short-term outlook while acknowledging structural deficits may emerge later this decade. Historical Context and Price Patterns Current market conditions resemble previous inventory cycles from 2013-2016 and 2019-2020. During those periods, copper prices remained range-bound despite positive macroeconomic indicators. The table below illustrates historical inventory-price relationships: Period Inventory Level Price Response Recovery Timeline 2013-2016 High -28% decline 24 months 2019-2020 Moderate-High -15% decline 18 months 2023-2024 Building -12% decline Ongoing Historical analysis suggests that inventory drawdowns typically require 12-24 months before meaningful price recovery emerges. Current projections indicate similar timelines, assuming demand growth continues at projected rates. Supply Chain Factors Influencing Inventories Multiple supply chain developments contribute to current inventory accumulation. Mining production increased significantly across South America, with Chile’s output rising 6% year-over-year despite operational challenges. Peruvian mines expanded production by 9%, benefiting from improved infrastructure and regulatory stability. African copper belt operations also contributed additional supply, particularly from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia. Simultaneously, smelting and refining capacity expanded throughout Asia. China added approximately 800,000 tons of new smelting capacity in 2024, with another 400,000 tons scheduled for 2025 commissioning. These expansions occurred despite moderate demand growth, creating temporary oversupply conditions. Logistics improvements further facilitated inventory accumulation, as shipping times decreased and warehouse efficiency increased across major trading routes. Demand-Side Considerations While long-term copper demand remains robust due to electrification trends, short-term consumption patterns show mixed signals. The electric vehicle sector continues expanding, with global EV production requiring approximately 2.2 million tons of copper annually. Renewable energy infrastructure development adds another 1.8 million tons of annual demand. However, traditional construction and manufacturing sectors demonstrate weakness, particularly in European and North American markets. Chinese demand patterns show particular importance, as the country consumes approximately 55% of global copper production. Recent property market adjustments and manufacturing slowdowns reduced Chinese copper consumption growth from 5% to 2.5% annually. This moderation significantly impacts global inventory dynamics, given China’s dominant market position. Other emerging markets show stronger growth but cannot fully offset Chinese moderation. Market Implications and Trading Patterns High inventory levels directly influence trading behavior across copper markets. Contango structures persist in forward curves, with nearby contracts trading at discounts to deferred months. This structure encourages inventory financing deals, where traders buy physical copper, store it, and sell forward contracts. Such activity further increases visible inventories while suppressing nearby prices. The contango currently ranges from $20-40 per ton across monthly spreads, providing adequate incentive for storage economics. Hedging activity also increased among producers and consumers. Mining companies implemented additional price protection strategies, while manufacturers reduced forward coverage ratios. These behavioral shifts increase exchange trading volumes while reducing physical market activity. Options markets show increased put buying at lower strike prices, indicating trader expectations for continued price pressure. Volatility measures remain elevated compared to historical averages. Geographic Inventory Distribution Inventory accumulation shows distinct geographic patterns that influence regional pricing. Asian warehouses hold approximately 60% of global visible stocks, primarily in Chinese locations. European inventories represent 25% of total, concentrated in Dutch and German warehouses. North American stocks account for the remaining 15%, with significant holdings in New Orleans and Long Beach facilities. These distributions create regional price differentials, with Asian premiums declining more sharply than European or American equivalents. Transportation costs and logistics constraints further complicate inventory management. Shipping rates from South America to Asia decreased 15% year-over-year, facilitating additional inventory builds. Warehouse handling capacity expanded in major ports, reducing storage costs and enabling larger stockpiles. These infrastructure improvements contribute to inventory persistence despite moderate demand growth. Copper Price Outlook and Projections Market analysts project limited price appreciation until inventory drawdowns commence. ING’s base case suggests copper prices will trade between $8,200 and $8,800 per ton through mid-2025, representing minimal change from current levels. Their bear case scenario projects potential declines to $7,800 if demand weakens further, while the bull case requires inventory reductions below 150,000 tons on the LME. Most analysts agree that meaningful price recovery requires sustained inventory declines over multiple quarters. Longer-term projections remain more optimistic due to structural supply-demand imbalances. The International Copper Study Group estimates annual supply deficits beginning in 2026, potentially reaching 500,000 tons by 2028. These deficits should eventually reduce inventories and support higher prices, but timing remains uncertain. New mining projects face extended development timelines, with most major expansions requiring 5-7 years from discovery to production. Conclusion Copper markets face challenging conditions as high inventories limit price recovery potential. ING analysis clearly demonstrates how substantial stockpiles create immediate price pressure despite positive long-term demand fundamentals. Market participants must monitor inventory drawdown signals closely, particularly in Asian warehouses where most accumulation occurred. While copper’s structural story remains compelling for electrification and decarbonization trends, near-term price action likely remains constrained until visible inventories decline meaningfully. The copper market rebound faces significant resistance from current supply conditions, requiring patience from investors and industry participants alike. FAQs Q1: Why do high copper inventories limit price increases? High inventories indicate current supply exceeds immediate demand, creating downward price pressure. When warehouses contain ample metal, buyers face less urgency to purchase, reducing competition and limiting price appreciation potential. Q2: How long might copper inventories remain elevated? Historical patterns suggest inventory drawdowns typically require 12-24 months, depending on demand growth rates. Current projections indicate visible stocks may remain elevated through 2025 unless demand accelerates unexpectedly. Q3: What inventory levels would signal a copper price recovery? Analysts generally consider LME inventories below 150,000 metric tons as supportive for price recovery. However, combined global inventories across all exchanges must show consistent declines over multiple months. Q4: How does ING’s analysis differ from other bank forecasts? ING places greater emphasis on visible inventory data and storage economics, while some competitors focus more on forward demand projections. This methodological difference leads to more cautious near-term price outlooks from ING. Q5: Can copper prices rise despite high inventories? Temporary price increases can occur due to speculative activity or supply disruptions, but sustained rallies typically require inventory drawdowns. Without reducing stockpiles, any price gains face selling pressure from stored metal entering the market. This post Copper Prices: High Inventories Crush Rebound Hopes – ING Analysis first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

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Bitcoin Fear Searches at Peak Since 2022

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Searches for 'Bitcoin will go to zero' on Google Trends are at their peak since 2022 FTX. BTC at 66K with a 50% drop, Fear & Greed at 9. Macro fears, quantum threats (7-year transition), and McGlon...

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: What Is the Most Probable Next Move for BTC as Momentum Stays Weak?

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Bitcoin is trading under sustained pressure after losing key higher-timeframe support levels, with the price structure showing a clear transition from distribution to a developing downtrend. Momentum remains weak, and recent rebounds appear corrective rather than impulsive, keeping downside risk elevated in the near term. Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart On the daily timeframe, the asset continues to respect a descending channel while trading below major moving averages, confirming bearish market structure. The rejection from the mid-range resistance zone and subsequent sharp sell-off toward the low-$60K region reinforces that sellers still control trend direction. Momentum indicators remain subdued, with RSI holding far below neutral and failing to produce strong bullish divergence. Unless the price can reclaim the $75K–$80K resistance cluster and close above the channel midpoint, the broader bias stays tilted toward continuation lower or prolonged consolidation near the $60K support level. BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart The 4-hour chart shows a steep impulsive drop followed by choppy sideways movement, typical of a bear-flag or accumulation attempt after liquidation. Lower highs continue to form beneath descending dynamic resistance, signaling that buyers have not yet regained short-term control. Key support sits around the recent wick low near the $60K area, while immediate resistance is clustered between roughly $73K and $76K. A breakout above this range would be the first technical signal of a momentum shift, whereas a breakdown below the mentioned support zone could accelerate another leg downward and lead to another round of massive liquidations. Sentiment Analysis Funding rate data shows sentiment cooling significantly compared to earlier overheated conditions, with the recent deeply negative prints suggesting reduced long-side leverage. This type of reset is constructive over the medium term but does not, by itself, confirm an immediate bullish reversal. Overall market psychology appears cautious rather than euphoric, which often precedes range formation before the next major move. For sentiment to flip decisively bullish, price strength must return alongside rising but controlled funding and improving momentum across timeframes. The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: What Is the Most Probable Next Move for BTC as Momentum Stays Weak? appeared first on CryptoPotato .

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Ripple (XRP) Payments Secretly Becoming the New SWIFT? Here’s What Is Happening

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A recent post by Paul Barron Network asked a pointed question about the evolution of global payments infrastructure. The tweet stated, “Ripple payments secretly becoming the New SWIFT?” The post centered on a video featuring a spokesperson from a major cryptocurrency brokerage discussing the impact of integrating Ripple Payments into its operations. Rather than offering speculation alone, the tweet relied on direct commentary from a company actively using the system. The attached video featured remarks from a representative of Caleb & Brown, who detailed how Ripple Payments has changed the firm’s internal processes. Ripple payments secretly becoming the New SWIFT? @MonicaLongSF @bgarlinghouse @RippleXDev @JoelKatz $XRP pic.twitter.com/6mfVYYGAxD — Paul Barron Network (@paulbarrontv) February 17, 2026 The Operational Impact Explained In the video, the spokesperson confirmed that “Ripple Payments, now live with Caleb and Brown,” signaling that the service is now part of the brokerage’s payment infrastructure. The representative explained that scaling a crypto-focused business had been challenging because the company depended on traditional banking systems. Those systems, according to the spokesperson, were not designed for the speed and volume required by a growing crypto brokerage. Since adopting Ripple Payments, the brokerage reports significant efficiency gains. The spokesperson stated that the accounting team can now process “hundreds and hundreds of US dollar withdrawals in a matter of minutes instead of hours.” This improvement appears to stem from faster settlement processes that reduce manual handling and delays. The representative described Ripple Payments as a bridge between the speed of the cryptocurrency industry and the continued reliance on the US dollar and traditional banking systems. The system was presented as a solution that enhances transaction speed while maintaining compatibility with existing financial institutions. From a client perspective, the benefit is faster access to funds. The spokesperson explained that customers completing withdrawals are receiving their money more quickly than before. For the brokerage, the integration has enabled greater operational scale. The representative concluded by stating, “So you’re essentially using the new swift,” reinforcing the comparison suggested in the original tweet. We are on X, follow us to connect with us :- @TimesTabloid1 — TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025 Leadership Ambitions and Market Share Targets The tweet also included a comment referencing prior remarks from Brad Garlinghouse. According to the commenter, Garlinghouse stated at Apex that Ripple aims to handle 14% of SWIFT’s transactions within five years . That statement outlines a measurable target for transaction volume in relation to the long-established global messaging network. SWIFT remains a dominant force in international banking transfers. However, the integration described by Caleb & Brown suggests that alternative payment technologies are being adopted by crypto-native firms seeking faster settlement and operational efficiency. The Paul Barron Network post focused on this practical implementation rather than theory. By highlighting testimony from an active brokerage and referencing public statements from Ripple’s leadership, the tweet presents Ripple Payments as a growing participant in cross-border transfers. The comparison to SWIFT is grounded in observable usage and stated ambitions, offering insight into how some companies view the evolving payments landscape. Disclaimer : This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses. Follow us on X , Facebook , Telegram , and Google News The post Ripple (XRP) Payments Secretly Becoming the New SWIFT? Here’s What Is Happening appeared first on Times Tabloid .

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The Market Priced in Cuts, the Fed Mentioned Hikes. What Is Means For Bitcoin Price?

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Minutes from the January meeting show rate hikes are not off the table. If inflation stalls, policymakers are ready to tighten again. That is a direct warning to risk markets. For Bitcoin price, this flips the script. The market was leaning toward cuts. More liquidity. Easier conditions. Now the Fed is signaling the opposite. Higher rates. Tighter liquidity. And that changes everything for crypto. Key Takeaways The Signal: Fed officials discussed “upward adjustments” to rates if inflation stays above target levels. The Split: The vote was 10-2 to hold rates, but a significant “hawkish” contingent is pushing back against cuts. The Risk: Higher-for-longer rates typically drain liquidity, creating headwinds for Bitcoin and ETF inflows. Why Does This Matter for Crypto and Bitcoin Price? Markets were relaxed. Cuts in 2026 felt almost guaranteed. Now that confidence got shaken again. The Fed held rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, hitting pause after three straight cuts in late 2025. But the tone was not soft. Inside the discussion, a hawkish group made it clear they are not ready to promise more easing. hawkish fed stance dampening macro sentiment — Binan Smart Kid (@Binansmartkid) February 18, 2026 Some officials even floated “upward adjustments” if inflation sticks around. That is a big shift. The market had assumed a smooth path lower. The minutes analysis say otherwise. The Fed wants clear proof that disinflation is real before cutting again. That puts serious weight on the February CPI print. If inflation runs hot, rate hikes move from theory back to reality. What Happens Next? Pricing is getting messy. CME futures still show a 94% chance of a pause in March. But the hike risk is no longer zero. Source: CMEgroub Now it all comes down to inflation data. If the next print runs hot, the Fed fears get validated. If not, this scare might fade just as fast as it appeared. Discover: Here are the crypto likely to explode! The post The Market Priced in Cuts, the Fed Mentioned Hikes. What Is Means For Bitcoin Price? appeared first on Cryptonews .

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