BTC Price Downtrend Continues: Bearish Momentum Dominates – But Relief Rally Possible? (Feb 19 Update)

  vor 8 Monaten

The $BTC price is firmly in the grip of the bears. A triangle breakdown points to a dip below the last local low at $60,000. Will the price go there, or has the price come down too fast? Could some kind of relief rally emerge from here? Breakdown under $60,000 or short-term relief rally? Source: TradingView The first thing that needs to be acknowledged when looking at any possibility of a relief rally is that the $BTC price is still very much in a bear market. Yes, the price has come down extremely fast, and that is why we are seeing this current period of consolidation. The good thing, at least as far as the bulls are concerned, is that the price action is not forming another bear flag. That said, we do have a pennant, from which the price has already fallen out of . Will the price now dip the extent of the measured move from this pattern, taking it to below $60,000? If this happens, it will be very bearish, and another sizable leg down could follow. However, the price has already come down a large amount, and that in a very short amount of time. Price does not generally go straight up or down without any reversals on the way. Therefore, the current sideways consolidation may be an opportunity for the bulls to stage a short-term relief rally. This rally could take the price back to around $80,000. There is also a CME gap at $84,600 which might even be a target for the market makers before they pull the rug again. A resumption of the downward trajectory? Source: TradingView Looking further out into the daily time frame the bearish bias does look even more apparent. This could be a bear pennant and the $BTC price could be in the process of confirming the breakdown and resuming its downward trajectory. That being said, only two touches at the top of the triangle does not give it full validity. It could be that a local bottom is forming and that this could be the base for the possible relief rally. Bear market not deep enough? Source: TradingView The weekly chart shows the two big legs down so far in the $BTC price . Could there be one more leg down to come? This is obviously looking further out than the potential relief rally that has been mentioned. In the grand scheme of things, in line with previous bear markets, 52% is perhaps not enough of a correction. If the price comes down to $53,000, the full measured move out of the bear flag , that would be a 58% correction. The next market structure step down from there would be to around $40,000, and a 66% reversal. This is more within the realm of previous bear markets. And then, to be completely unified with what has happened in bear market history, a total rout down to $30,000 would put the total correction at 75%. One of these aforementioned targets could be the one - which might it be? Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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Aptos Foundation Sets Supply Cap for APT and Proposes Overhaul of Token Model

  vor 8 Monaten

Aptos Foundation plans to cap APT token supply at 2.1 billion. Major proposal includes cutting staking rewards and boosting gas fees, with token-burning mechanisms. Continue Reading: Aptos Foundation Sets Supply Cap for APT and Proposes Overhaul of Token Model The post Aptos Foundation Sets Supply Cap for APT and Proposes Overhaul of Token Model appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

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Uxlink Hacker Returns, Snaps Up $10.87M in Ethereum After Months of Silence

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The Uxlink hacker returned after three months, purchasing a total of 5,493.26 ETH. The hacker may be utilizing the buy-the-dip opportunity amid the ETH price crash. In 2025, the hacker exploited the Uxlink protocol’s vulnerability, resulting in the loss of millions of funds. After months of silence, the infamous Uxlink hacker has resurfaced, making headlines with a fresh move. The hacker has been reportedly purchasing Ethereum using DAI, signaling a return to active trading after a three-month break. The Uxlink hacker previously exploited the vulnerabilities in the protocol, leading to a multi-million-dollar breach. Since the hack, the attacker has executed a series of high-value transactions while largely avoiding detection. This makes the latest movement a closely watched event in the crypto industry. Uxlink Hacker Back in Action with ETH Move According to the findings of an X account called “@ai_9684xtpa,” the notorious Uxlink hacker has returned with a massive Ethereum transaction. The hacker has started buying Ethereum again, this time using DAI. The analyst stated that four addresses linked to the hacker purchased a total of 5,493.26 ETH, worth about $10.87 million. These tokens were bought at an average price of$1,979 per Ether. While these ETH tokens were purchased using DAI, which were acquired by the hacker by swapping the stolen funds. Still, after multiple batches of Ether purchases, the Uxlink hacker holds about 21.42 DAI. How the Uxlink Hack Happened? The Uxlink hack, which took place on September 22, 2025, resulted in a financial loss of $11 million. The attack was reportedly carried out by an unknown hacker via a carefully planned external attack. The hacker used advanced social engineering methods to access the system while maintaining system security. The attacker also used deepfake videos to impersonate a business partner and established trust with the team member. This gave them access to the team member’s Telegram account and personal device. With this access, the hacker quickly took control of a smart contract and minted billions of fake UNLINK tokens. In addition to unauthorized UXLINK minting, the attacker transferred about $4 million in USDT, $500,000 in USDC, 3.7 WBTC, and 25 ETH. To cover their tracks and cash out, the hacker moved the stolen funds across at least six different wallets, converting most of them into Ethereum. In total, they made off with about 6,732 ETH, worth $28.1 million at the price then. They also swapped tokens to DAI and used the Arbitrum network to move the funds back to Ethereum. What the Latest ETH Purchase Suggests? The latest Ethereum purchase by the Uxlink hacker suggests that they are actively managing and possibly expanding their holdings. Buying a large number of ETH after three months of inactivity shows a deliberate strategy rather than a random move. Analysts see this as a sign that the hacker is carefully consolidating stolen or accumulated assets, potentially preparing for future transactions. The transaction is particularly noteworthy because of its timing. The hacker has purchased Ether amid the ongoing ETH downtrend. The altcoin is currently trading in the red zone, sparking widespread caution about its future. However, expert traders see this as a buy-the-dip opportunity. Considering this approach, analysts believe that the Uxlink hacker might also have accumulated the tokens utilizing the bearish price trend.

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Payward Acquires Magna to Expand Kraken Token Lifecycle Infrastructure Services

  vor 8 Monaten

Payward, the parent company of Kraken, has acquired token management platform Magna to integrate comprehensive vesting and distribution tools into its financial suite. Payward announced the acquisition of Magna on February 18, 2026, marking its sixth major deal within the past year. Magna remains a standalone platform under the Kraken umbrella, providing crypto-native teams with

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South Korea’s Crypto Tax Plan Faces Fourth Critical Delay Amidst Regulatory Paralysis

  vor 8 Monaten

BitcoinWorld South Korea’s Crypto Tax Plan Faces Fourth Critical Delay Amidst Regulatory Paralysis SEOUL, South Korea – March 2025 – South Korea’s ambitious plan to implement a comprehensive tax on virtual assets stands on the brink of an unprecedented fourth postponement. Consequently, a critical lack of administrative and legal preparation has created a significant regulatory vacuum. This situation leaves millions of cryptocurrency investors and the burgeoning digital asset industry in a state of prolonged uncertainty. South Korea’s Crypto Tax Faces Mounting Implementation Hurdles Typically, major tax legislation requires detailed subordinate statutes drafted up to a year in advance. However, the framework for South Korea’s virtual asset tax system remains conspicuously incomplete. According to a report from Aju Business Daily, the necessary administrative and legal preparations are currently at a standstill. This legislative inertia directly contradicts the scheduled enforcement date, now just ten months away. The government’s 2024 tax reform proposal notably lacked supplementary details for the crypto tax system. This omission has sparked widespread concern among policymakers and financial experts alike. Senior research fellow Kim Gap-lae from the Korea Capital Market Institute highlights the inevitable controversy. He specifically references last year’s amendment to the Income Tax Act, which also failed to provide specifics on virtual asset taxation. “If the current situation persists,” Kim warns, “the possibility of a fourth postponement cannot be ruled out.” This potential delay follows three previous official deferrals, originally moving the start date from 2022 to the current 2025 timeline. Anatomy of a Regulatory Stalemate The core challenge lies in translating a broad legislative intent into a workable, enforceable system. Defining the taxable event for a decentralized, 24/7 global asset class presents unique difficulties. Authorities must establish clear protocols for several complex areas. For instance, they need to determine how to calculate gains from staking, yield farming, and airdrops. Furthermore, they must create a reporting framework for both domestic exchanges and overseas platforms used by Korean residents. Tax Base Definition: Clarifying which digital assets qualify and establishing cost-basis calculation methods. Reporting Infrastructure: Building a system for exchanges to automatically report user transactions to the National Tax Service (NTS). Enforcement Mechanisms: Developing protocols for tracking off-exchange transactions and cross-border trading activity. Investor Education: Creating public guidance to ensure compliance from individual taxpayers. The following table contrasts the proposed tax structure with the current preparation status: Tax Component Proposed Rule Current Preparation Status Tax Rate 20% on annual gains over 2.5 million KRW (~$1,850) Legislatively defined, but enforcement unclear Reporting Threshold Annual transactions over 2.5 million KRW No finalized technical standards for exchanges Implementation Date January 1, 2025 Subordinate statutes incomplete; high risk of delay Expert Analysis on the Systemic Gridlock Financial policy analysts point to several interconnected factors driving the delay. First, the rapid evolution of the crypto market often outpaces the slower, deliberate pace of regulatory drafting. New financial products and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols emerge constantly, creating moving targets for regulators. Second, there is an ongoing debate within government agencies regarding the appropriate scope and aggressiveness of the tax regime. Some officials advocate for a simpler, broad-based approach to ensure initial compliance. Conversely, others push for a more nuanced system that accounts for the sector’s complexity. Kim Gap-lae’s analysis underscores a critical point: legislative action without detailed implementation blueprints leads to functional paralysis. The absence of these “subordinate statutes” means exchanges cannot build compliant reporting systems. Simultaneously, taxpayers cannot prepare their records with confidence. This regulatory ambiguity has a tangible chilling effect. It potentially stifles innovation and drives trading activity to less transparent venues or overseas platforms. Market and Investor Implications of Continued Uncertainty The persistent threat of a tax delay creates a paradoxical environment for South Korea’s crypto ecosystem. On one hand, investors and businesses crave regulatory clarity to operate with certainty. On the other hand, each postponement grants a temporary reprieve from a significant new compliance burden. This cycle of anticipation and deferral impacts market behavior. For example, it may lead to strategic selling before perceived deadlines or hesitancy in long-term investment planning. Major domestic cryptocurrency exchanges like Upbit and Bithumb have reportedly allocated resources for tax reporting systems. However, they cannot finalize these costly technological investments without official technical specifications from the NTS. This limbo state creates operational inefficiencies and financial waste. International observers also note that South Korea’s struggle mirrors global challenges. Many jurisdictions grapple with effectively taxing digital assets within existing legal frameworks not designed for them. Historical Context and the Path Forward South Korea first announced its virtual asset taxation plan in 2020, targeting a 2022 start. Political pressure and industry appeals led to the first delay to 2023. Subsequently, concerns over market impact and technical readiness prompted further pushes to 2024 and then 2025. This pattern reveals the significant difficulty of imposing traditional financial governance on a borderless, digital asset class. The government now faces a critical decision point. It must either commit substantial resources to finalize the system rapidly or formally announce another delay to allow for proper preparation. A formal announcement is expected from the Ministry of Economy and Finance or the National Assembly within the coming months. The decision will signal South Korea’s broader regulatory posture. A well-prepared, effectively enforced tax regime could legitimize the sector and protect investors. Conversely, a rushed or poorly designed system could undermine those very goals and damage the nation’s status as a fintech leader. Conclusion South Korea’s crypto tax plan exemplifies the complex intersection of innovative technology and established fiscal policy. The looming possibility of a fourth delay directly stems from a fundamental lack of administrative preparation. This ongoing uncertainty affects investors, exchanges, and the overall health of the digital asset market. Ultimately, the resolution of this impasse will require decisive action. Policymakers must bridge the gap between legislative intent and practical implementation to provide the clarity the market desperately needs. FAQs Q1: What is the main reason for the potential fourth delay of South Korea’s crypto tax? A1: The primary reason is a standstill in administrative and legal preparations. Specifically, the necessary subordinate statutes, which detail how the law will be implemented and enforced, have not been established, creating an unworkable situation just months before the scheduled start date. Q2: When was South Korea’s virtual asset tax originally supposed to begin? A2: The tax was first announced with a planned implementation date of 2022. It has since been postponed three times, first to 2023, then to 2024, and currently to January 1, 2025. Q3: What are the proposed details of the tax? A3: The plan is to impose a 20% tax on annual gains from virtual asset transactions that exceed 2.5 million Korean Won (approximately $1,850). Gains below this threshold would remain untaxed. Q4: How does this delay affect cryptocurrency exchanges in South Korea? A4: Exchanges are in a difficult position. They must prepare complex reporting systems to automatically send user transaction data to the National Tax Service but cannot finalize these expensive technological builds without the official technical standards and specifications from the government, leading to wasted resources and operational uncertainty. Q5: What happens if the tax is implemented without proper preparation? A5: Implementation without complete subordinate statutes and technical frameworks would likely lead to widespread confusion, non-compliance, and ineffective enforcement. It could also place an unfair burden on taxpayers who lack clear guidance, potentially undermining the law’s legitimacy and effectiveness from the outset. This post South Korea’s Crypto Tax Plan Faces Fourth Critical Delay Amidst Regulatory Paralysis first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

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Federal Reserve Study: Kalshi Is a Better Macro Forecast Accuracy Tool

  vor 8 Monaten

Key Highlights: The Federal Reserve study finds Kalshi data offers faster, real-time signals on macroeconomic expectations. Kalshi forecasts showed accuracy on par with, and sometimes better than, traditional surveys and market indicators. Researchers say prediction markets could complement existing policy tools by revealing sentiment, distribution risks, and shifts in expectations. A research paper from the Federal Reserve reveals that prediction market data from Kalshi could improve how policymakers gauge macroeconomic expectations in real time. The study notes that these markets provide faster and more detailed hints than traditional tools such as surveys or derivatives pricing. The paper, titled “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” is authored by Federal Reserve Board chief economist Anthony Diercks, research assistant Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan Wright of Johns Hopkins University. The authors compared Kalshi’s market-implied forecasts with standard benchmarks including professional surveys and market-derived indicators. Is Kalshi a Superior Macroeconomic Forecast Tool Their findings show that Kalshi’s probability distributions give quick responses to latest information. These updates happen throughout the trading day. Hence, policymakers and researchers can observe changes in predictions almost immediately after economic data releases or official statements. The paper shared that managing expectations is important for modern monetary policy, and that existing tools often lack speed, frequency, or distributional detail. Kalshi continuously updates predictions for events such as interest rate decisions, inflation readings, and labor market outcomes. The researchers observed that these predictions adjust quickly to macroeconomic developments. For example, after speeches by Federal Reserve Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, Kalshi markets increased the implied probability of a July rate cut to around 25 percent. That probability later declined when the June employment report exceeded forecasts. The research also assessed the accuracy of Kalshi forecasts. For federal funds rate decisions, the platform’s mean, median, and mode estimates performed much in line with established forecasts such as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Market Expectations. In several cases, Kalshi delivered slightly lower prediction errors as key policy meetings approached. Notably, the modal forecast from Kalshi matched the actual policy outcome on the day of each Federal Open Market Committee meeting since 2022. The paper extended its analysis to inflation, unemployment, and GDP expectations. For consumer price inflation, Kalshi’s mean absolute error on the day of release was close to seven basis points, compared with roughly eight basis points for the Bloomberg consensus. For unemployment predictions, Kalshi provided a real-time distribution of outcomes. This is something that is not available in traditional options markets. The authors of the paper highlighted that these distributions offer insights into tail risks and asymmetry that point forecasts cannot capture. Statistical testing showed that in some cases Kalshi forecasts hugely outperformed the Bloomberg consensus, particularly for headline inflation. In other cases, there was no meaningful difference in accuracy. The study found no instance where Kalshi was significantly worse than established benchmarks. This consistency suggests that prediction markets can be complementary to existing tools. Prediction markets capture the beliefs of a diverse participant base, including retail traders and institutional actors. This mix can produce a wider view of sentiment than traditional surveys that depend on a limited group of professional forecasters. At the same time, the market structure allows for continuous price discovery, which hints at changing expectations about monetary policy, growth, and inflation. Notably, the Federal Reserve clarified that the paper is preliminary research intended to encourage discussion. It does not signal any immediate change in policy frameworks or decision-making processes. The central bank continues to rely on a range of indicators when assessing economic conditions and setting interest rates. Even so, the study points to another striking aspect. As liquidity improves and contract coverage expands, platforms like Kalshi may offer policymakers a more detailed and timely picture of how markets interpret incoming data. The research concludes that such tools could improve the study of monetary policy transmission, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic uncertainty over time. Also Read: Solflare Wallet Integrates Prediction Market, Powered by Kalshi

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Dogecoin Price Drops Below $0.10 as Analyst Spots Bullish Cup-and-Handle Setup on Daily Chart

  vor 8 Monaten

Dogecoin dropped sharply in Thursday's session, with sellers maintaining control despite a brief attempt to hold the $0.10 psychological level. The popular meme coin currently trades at $0.09783, down 3.68% over the past 24 hours, as short-term bearish pressure continues to weigh on price action. The 24-hour trading range stretched from $0.09718 to $0.102. DOGE pushed toward the upper boundary early in the session but gradually retreated, settling near the lower half of its daily range. Despite the intraday weakness, the token still holds a 5.42% gain over the past seven days, a sign that buying interest remains present at lower levels. Broader performance, however, tells a different story. DOGE has shed 22.4% over the past 30 days and remains 60.6% lower year-over-year. These figures underscore the persistent downward pressure that has characterized the asset for much of the past year. Technical Indicators Point to Bearish Momentum The Directional Movement Index paints a cautious picture. The negative directional indicator (-DI) sits at approximately 37.6, well above the positive directional indicator (+DI) at 18.8. This wide gap confirms that sellers hold a firm advantage. The ADX reading near 25 suggests a declining trend remains in place, though the reading is not extreme. For a bullish reversal to gain credibility, the +DI must cross above the -DI while the ADX rises simultaneously. That combination would confirm momentum shifting in favor of buyers. Neither condition has been met yet. One contrasting signal comes from the Parabolic SAR. The indicator's dots have flipped below the price candles, a development that typically signals building upward momentum. This suggests DOGE may be attempting a short-term relief rally, even if the broader trend remains bearish. Traders often treat this signal as an early warning of a possible trend shift, though confirmation from other indicators is essential before acting. Key support sits in the $0.085–$0.090 range, a zone where buyers previously stepped in to defend the dip. A clean break below $0.085 would open the door toward $0.080. On the upside, resistance clusters between $0.111 and $0.117, with a stronger ceiling near $0.125, a level tied to prior breakdown points and previous lower highs. Analyst Flags Cup-and-Handle Formation Crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade, posting on X, identified a cup-and-handle pattern forming on Dogecoin's daily chart. The setup is widely regarded as a bullish continuation signal in technical analysis. According to the analyst, DOGE has already completed the rounded cup portion of the pattern. The asset bottomed near $0.08 before rallying to roughly $0.11, carving out the curved base characteristic of the formation. The handle phase, a period of consolidation near the prior high, appears to be developing now. The critical moment will come if DOGE breaks above the handle's resistance zone. A confirmed breakout could propel the token toward new highs, according to Trader Tardigrade. However, the pattern remains unconfirmed until that breakout occurs with sufficient volume. Without it, the setup is speculative.

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